This time of year, everyone has their own idea about how the upcoming baseball season is going to shape up (including myself). But what also happens this time of year, is we tend to put a little more stock into what the national or local experts have to say about how our favorite team or player will finish. We trust their opinions. They get paid to do this, they must be right, right? They know a heck of a lot more than Joe Beerlover out there hashing out predictions with his buddies, right?
Well, today everyone has access to the same information and it is all free and available to you in about five mouse clicks. There are no secrets anymore - if you don’t realize that people think Felix Hernandez is going to break out this year, then you just aren’t trying anymore. Simultaneous scoresheets and internet box scores and message boards give us all the information the experts have.
So with that being said, let’s look at how some of the experts are predicting the Astros to do this year and we will look at the end of the year and see who was closest. You can click on the link for each one to take you to the respective page about the Astros’ upcoming season.
ESPN - They must have about one trillion people that cover baseball year round. On this page, you can see the predictions of 10 of their best baseball writers. They range from predicting a first place finish (88-74, and Eric Karabell is my new favorite baseball analyst by the way) to 5th in the central (78-84), and everywhere in between. There are other neat little tidbits of information on this page, too.
SI.com - Peter King writes this interesting piece about the Astros and Brad Lidge (wait, I thought he was their main football guy?). They project the ‘Stros will finish fourth in the division and will be the 19th best team overall in baseball in 2007.
Fox Sports - Dayn Perry lays out his 2007 power rankings here and has the Astros ranked 20th overall. He says they will finish fourth behind St. Louis, Chicago and Milwaukee. I wish Ken Rosenthal had offered his thoughts and opinions as he seems to always be in tune with the goings-on in baseball. But he probably would have picked them fourth as well.
Baseball America - Not much analysis or reasoning here, but BA predicts the Astros will also finish fourth in the division this year. Jim Callis wrote this and made the predictions, and he is a guy whose stuff I really like and read frequently, but I certainly hope he is wrong this time. At least he has us beating out the Cubbies.
Baseball Prospectus - As you know by now, BP uses formulas and algorithms to predict most things they do. For records, they use the Win Expectancy formula which means they have to predict the runs scored by the Astros and runs scored against the Astros. They do this by projecting everything out for each player, which I have gone into before and won’t do so again here. Anyway, they predict an 80-82 season for Houston and have them finishing fourth in the division (with the Brewers winning).
The Hardball Times (new on March 30) - THT also has a good stable of writers and researchers and they have a good site for quick reference to statistics like Runs Created and Win Shares and things like that. This page shows the predictions of 15 writers for each division and playoff round for 2007. Of the 15, two have the Astros finishing second, one has them finishing third, nine have them ending up fourth, two have the Astros in fifth, and one has them in sixth. That is the first time I have seen a prediction for the Astros to finish last.
So overall, the majority of baseball people out there have Houston finishing fourth. It has been a long time since we finished that low, my friends. As a matter of fact, they have had only one losing season in 15 years….and we all forgot 2000 anyway.
The consensus is that three main things have to happen in order for the Astros to be competitive and have a chance at the division. Here they are in my order of importance:
3. Brad Lidge has to time warp back to pre-Pujols 2005. He has been saying all the right things for a year and a half now, it’s time to start backing it up with results. He should have a short leash over the next two months.
2. The Astros have to improve their run-scoring ability. Carlos Lee should help with that considerably, so that’s good news. And once Mr. 3000 gets 70 hits, Garner will hopefully wise up and put Burke at 2nd and Pence in CF. That should emphatically improve our runs scored in the second half.
1. Roger Clemens has to put the spikes back on for Houston. And sooner rather than later.
So how do you think the Astros will finish this year? And if you have a favorite team you would like to see similar projections for, let me know. I will get to it as soon as I can.
Filed under: Astros, Predictions
I think the NL central is one of the hardest divisions to predict. The Cubs and Astros both made huge offseason acquistitions, the Brewers are finally going to see results from years of developing their farm system, The Cardinals still have the best player in baseball, Cincinatti will be feast or famine at the plate like always and the Pirates are still the Pirates. I obviously think the Cubs will win, but I’m excited for the potential four team race down to the final week of the season to see who will win. I would almost rather see that than see the Cubs run away with it in late July… Almost.