Baseball Notes

When it gets to be the end of September or beginning of October, you start to see a lot of papers and media outlets grade players and teams from the previous year based on how they performed the past six months. What I am going to do in this exercise is VERY briefly give a predicted grade to all players on the Astros’ 25-man roster and write sentence about each as to why I think they will perform at the level of that grade for the season. And away we go…

Roy Oswalt A+

I think that this is his year. All of his peripheral numbers such as BB ratio, Isolated power, WHIP and GB/FB ratio have so good for three years…plus, he was first in the NL in VORP with 72.4 last year. We just need to give him the run support. I think he gets no lower than #2 in the Cy Young voting this year.

Lance Berkman A

He was so unbelievably good last year, it is almost impossible to repeat what he did in such a sorry lineup - according to BP, he accounted for 8.5 of the Astros’ wins by himself last year. He had Hall of Fame numbers and will look to repeat them, but fall just short in ‘07.

Carlos Lee A-

Once he learns how to play defense against that crazy 20-foot wall in left field, he should come close to being worth what we paid for him. He won’t steal 19 bases again, but should have plenty of RBI opportunities. His average will probably dip a little bit, too - but walks will be up.

Morgan Ensberg A-

This grade is predicated upon Garner’s brilliant experiment of putting Ensberg in the two hole. His .396 OBP last year was 11th in the NL, and that was with a .235 average! He should just stand there and draw walk after walk and score run after run; and I think he will. Defense should be solid again, too.

Dan Wheeler A-

Will undoubtedly be asked to close some games this year as well as pitch at least 75 innings and hold all 8th inning leads. He was up to the task last year as he ranked 4th in the NL with 24 Holds while also going 9 for 12 in save opps. and posting an ERA of 2.52.

Chad Qualls A-

Ranked right behind Wheeler with 23 Holds in ‘06 and will be pitching a lot more in the 8th inning this year as well as multiple innings on occasion. Last year, he appeared in exactly half of the Astros’ games; a trend that should continue. He also had a stellar average of Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) of only .266 (14th in the NL with pitchers that threw at least 75 innings). It that proves to not be a fluke, a great season should be ahead.

Mike Lamb B+

Lamb had the best hitting year of his professional career in 2006 with an .836 OPS in only 381 at bats. The defense at third is still in suspect as he has been tagged with giving up 10 runs for the Astros over the past three years in part-time duty. He should see less time at third this year and more at first and possibly the outfield where he is less of a liability. Not many teams can produce a back-up or pinch hitter who slugs .475 like Lamb did last year, especially not a left handed one (he hit .324 and slugged .497 against righties).

Chris Burke B

We know he is going to struggle in centerfield. My guess (and hope) is that he sees a lot more time at second base after the All-Star break when Pence is called up and Biggio is resting. His value will be increased then as he continues to improve at the plate. These numbers only really matter for fantasy, but I can see a 15/15 year from Burke with a strong slugging pct. from all the doubles he will hit. Starting off hitting sixth will take some of the pressure off of him of a full-time job.

Mark Loretta B

Here are the OBPs for Loretta over the past five years: .345, .360, .391, .372, .381. I don’t know if there are many other bench players I would rather have than Mark Loretta. Combine that with the fact that he can play second, short and third and you have a solid addition to this team (sorry, Eric Bruntlett). Oh, and when he spent a third of the season with the Astros a few years ago, his OBP was .481! And another thing, last year he was in the top ten in the AL in at-bats per strikeout. Dude gets on base.

Chris Sampson B

I was watching the game last June 7 when Sampson got the spot start against the Cubs. All he did in that one was pitch 7 innings giving up three hits and no runs while showing some wicked drop on the sinker to get groundball after groundball out. I really like this guy, and with a full season to work on his pitches against major leaguers, I feel like he can do some things.

Jason Jennings B-

Jennings is supposed to replace Andy Pettitte this year. Let’s compare the two from 2006 (Pettitte pitched two and a third more innings):
VORP: Jennings, 50.8 - Pettitte, 30.3
ERA: Jennings, 3.78 - Pettitte, 4.20
HR/9: Jennings, 0.72 - Pettitte, 1.13
And that was from Jennings pitching at Coors field. I am thinking he will do just fine in replacing the Deer Park native. Let’s just hope we don’t only have him for one year.

Jason Lane B-

The reason I give him a grade this high after barely batting .200 in 2006 is that he will primarily serve as a backup unless something happens to Luke Scott. Lane will be in against a lot of left handers where he has an OBP of .335 and SLG of .486 for his career. The averages say he can’t be as bad as 2006 again, but if he is, get Pence up here in a hurry.

Trevor Miller B-

As the left-handed specialit, Miller posted the lowest ERA of his career last season at 3.02 as well as his lowest WHIP at 1.09. Left handers only hit .224 against him with an OBP of only .280. People think he is old, but he is only 33. I see a little bit of regression back to mean from those amazing numbers, but a solid year is still on the way (with no Mike Gallo to worry about this year).

Rick White B-

OK, now here is a pitcher who is old. He will be 39 this year (a kid compared to Williams and Roger Clemens) and in his 14th season. So why such a high grade? Remember, these grades are based on prospective value for what they will be asked to do this season. White is asked to be the Russ Springer of seasons past and his spring ERA of 0.69 and ability to go more than one inning in multiple ST, when your endurance is not what it is in August, games is encouraging to me.

We are getting into the dregs, so less figures and explanations from here on out.

Brad Lidge C+

If you break down the numbers, there were only 5 games that ruined his season in 2006. In the five games where he took the loss, Lidge’s ERA was 20.25 in 4 innings with a WHIP over 3. In the 32 games he saved, his ERA was 1.42 with 47 Ks in 31.2 innings. Still, it’s something in his head, and that can be hard to fix. He is on a short leash this year.

Orlando Palmeiro C+

You have to have him on the team I guess. Good backup, defensive OF and a left-handed contact hitter who never strikes out (he has struck out 221 times in 11 seasons).

Luke Scott C+

He deserves an A+++++ for his second half last year. Forget about him repeating that and look for a more modest .280/24/81 line this year. Only reason it’s a C+ is because of all the expectations people have for him.

Adam Everett C

An F for offense and an A+ for defense. That averages out to a C in my book. Best defensive shortstop in the game.

Humberto Quintero C

Hopefully Ausmus is not playing in 140 games like last year. Quintero will be better than Ausmus in his sleep, so he is serviceable as a backup. Not great on defense, not great on offense, but he did post a .296/.342/.421 line in 322 PAs at Round Rock last year.

Craig Biggio C-

Sentimentality aside, he really is done, and has been for two years. His OBP as a leadoff hitter or #2 guy in ‘06 was .306….horrible. And according to BP’s defense rating, Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), he was a -13 last year. Basically an average second baseman would rate as a zero. Biggio was minus 13. Best of luck in your last year and at the Hall of Fame; you were a great player.

Dave Borkowski C-

The most boring player and least discussed on the Astros. Last pitcher off the bench in my opinion.

Woody Williams C-

I know he has been an Astros killer in the past (if you can’t beat him, buy him), but is it such a good idea to put a 40-year-old flyball pitcher (2006 GB% of only 37%, and no, the other 63% was not from strikeouts) in Minute Maid Park? We’ll see I guess.

Brian Moehler D

On second thought, maybe Moehler should be the last guy off the bench. Hopefully he can give us a spot start or two if Jose Lima or Carlos Hernandez are not available.

Wandy Rodriguez D-

I heard at least two interviews during spring training where the Astros’ brass said Wandy was penciled into the fourth spot because he has won 19 games over the past two years. Well, guess what? He has lost 20! And his ERA has been 5.60! You know I love VORP, and Wandy had a -4.6 VORP in 2006. Meaning he is 4.6 runs worse than just your run-of-the-mill starter you could pick up off waivers or call up from Triple A. Don’t get me started.

Brad Ausmus F

What more can be said. He had a -17.5 VORP last year, second worst amongst full time players. Every year the BP team nominate players for their Christian Guzman Award for who they think will have the lowest VORP for the upcoming season. Four out of 13 chose Ausmus. Last year he threw out 22% of base-stealers, yet still won a Gold Glove. My wife thinks he is hot, if that counts for anything.
So there you go. Long enough? What do you agree or disagree with? Anything you think I have totally off?