Baseball Notes

Since it is the All-Star Break, I wanted to take a present-day look AND a look back at my competitive fantasy baseball league, give some updates, and evaluate (in my opinion) each team’s best and worst value picks from the draft back in mid-March. At the beginning of the season, I guessed at what each team’s best value pick would be by the end of the season (which you can find here), so I will reference back to that, but this time be a little harsher by also pointing out where each team’s poorest pick was so far. I will also point out some good waiver-wire adds, horrible player drops, and anything else that peaks my interest.

First of all, the standings from our 10-team Mixed Points League we run on Yahoo. The three categories are manager, total points so far, and number of moves this season.

Tim - 5335.50 - 19
Jason - 5323.50 - 18
Ryan - 5316.50 - 21
Jeremy - 5211 - 39
Kirk - 5132.50 - 19
Regan - 5020.50 - 25
Glen - 4951 - 5
Joel - 4911 - 45
Dusty - 4762 - 24
Robby - 4377.50 - 8

The top three have been pretty consistent all year with Kirk and Jeremy making a strong push just before the break to move into the top half of the league. Two teams, Dusty and Robby, don’t really check much anymore, and it’s unfortunate, because both of those teams had or have potential. But the top four teams all being within 124 points of each other should make for a fun finish, especially when 100-point nights happen quite frequently.

Anyway, onto the best and worst value picks. The original draft can be seen in the comments section of this post (the order of the snake draft was Tim, Dusty, Ryan, Jeremy, Regan, Robby, Kirk, Joel, Jason, and Glen). A few groundrules first:

1. I am defining value by the production expected from X player in Y round. So, you won’t be seeing Regan’s best value pick as A-Rod (even though he is his most “valuable”) because he was taken with the fifth pick in the first round and you expect that kind of production from your first pick. Likewise, you won’t see Regan’s 20th round pick of Mark Prior as his worst value pick because you don’t expect that much from that pick anyway.

2. A player who has spent a significant amount of time injured or on the DL will not have that counted against them when considering bad value picks - it’s just bad luck. But, being hurt also won’t cost a player if he is a candidate for best value pick

3. A player does not have to be on the team who drafted him to be a good or bad value pick. If a player taken in the 17th round is having a Hall of Fame type season, it doesn’t matter whose team it is for, it’s still a HOF season. It’s just the manager’s fault if they dropped him or traded him, etc. But I will get into some of the best/worst drops/adds/trades when we are done.

From first to tenth place:

Tim
Best Value - Russell Martin (18th Round) - Martin is the number one catcher and is ranked number 24 overall. A catcher with 60 RBI and 16 SB at the break? Wow. Mauer, Martinez, Pudge, Posada, Barrett, McCann, and Piazza were all taken ahead of Martin.
Worst Value - Albert Pujols (1st Round) - Pujols has been really good this year, but not really great. You expect the number one overall pick to at least be in the top 15 or 20 if he has been healthy, not number 28 overall. Pujols is currently in the longest homer-less streak of his career. But this should definitely change before the season is over.

Dusty
Best - Alex Rios (12th) - Rios is 9th amongst OF and 17th overall amongst hitters this year. I think most were scared away by his freak staph infection last year, but Rios bounced back with a vengeance, ranking fifth among OF in HR so far.
Worst - Jeff Kent (5th) - Kent is the 9th ranked second baseman and ranked 88th overall amongst hitters. Every other 2B save Utley was available in the fifth.

Ryan
Best - Chris Young (10th) - The MLB leader in ERA this year has certainly not disappointed so far in 2007, and he ranks as the 21st best starting pitcher so far, and he would be in the top ten except for three no decisions he has received this year due to lack of offensive support - in those three games, he pitched 21 innings and gave up only one run.
Worst - Andruw Jones (3rd) - Ugh. His troubles are well-documented so far this year, and his contract may suffer at the end of this season because of it. He showed signs of improvement right before the break - it’s just sad that “signs of improvement” for him mean he is now batting .211. Jones has 41 and 51 homeruns the past two years, and may not reach 30 in 2007.

Jeremy
Best - Magglio Ordonez (17th) - I don’t know what is the bigger surprise, that Maggs lasted until the 17th round in our draft or that he leads the majors in average and is in the top five in RBI. Jeremy unfortunately dropped him after two slow weeks, but he was scooped up and has been on a tear ever since.
Worst - Bobby Abreu (4th) - If you know exactly what is wrong with Abreu this year, please let me know. We all knew the power was going, but an average of only .264 and an OBP that just reached .350? I have heard everything from he can’t handle New York pressure to he is injured and plenty more. But 66th amongst hitters is not going to do it for a fourth round pick.

Regan
Best - Erik Bedard (16th) - The MLB strikeout leader is the number 11 pitcher overall despite the fact that he only has a 7-4 record. I guess having more than 20 Ks more than your closest competition will do that for you. Other pitchers taken in the 16th: Rich Hill, Kevin Millwood, Dave Bush.
Worst - Robinson Cano (6th) - After a fantastic 2006, Cano has been a disappointment for the Yanks this year. Cano was the third 2B taken (after Utley and Kent), but ranks 13th now with such stars as Aaron Hill, Kelly Johnson and Ray Durham ahead of him. Cano also is 108th overall amongst hitters this year.

Robby
Best - Ken Griffey, Jr. (19th) - It’s pretty much a toss-up as to who has been the most valuable based on where they were drafted this year: Griffey or Martin. Unfortunately, Robby never got to experience any Griffey greatness as he dropped him three days before the season started and he was picked up by Joel. But I admit, I thought he would be out already with injury - and, while that may still happen, Joel is reaping the rewards these days.
Worst - Jason Bay (3rd) - Bay is the 26th ranked outfielder so far this year, and while that sounds bad, it is still ahead of others like Jones, Vernon Wells, Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, and Nick Swisher. But, I feel as though Bay was drafted in the third round to produce similar stats to what he has averaged the past two years: about .295, 33 HR, 105 RBI, 100 runs, OPS around .940, and 16 SB. His numbers of .254, 13 HR, 56 RBI, .766 OPS, and 2 SB just don’t cut it.

Kirk
Best - CC Sabathia (10th) - This was the toughest decision. Sabathia in the 10th or Fielder in the 7th. Great pitching is harder to find late, so I went with Sabathia here. CC is the number one ranked pitcher in all of baseball in our league, and no one is within 35 points of catching him. His 12 wins are tied for the best in the majors - not bad for someone taken in the same round as Barry Zito.
Worst - Jermaine Dye (3rd) - Dye had a career year last year, but it is a little crazy to think he was going to repeat 44 HR and 120 RBI. Still, I would not have predicted a drop to numbers like .214/12/39. That is just brutal - Dye, in a season-long funk, doesn’t even crack the top 125 hitters.

Joel
Best - Eric Byrnes (20th) - The 20th round. For a player who is number 21 overall in hitters and is better so far than Ortiz, Pujols, Howard, Hafner and Berkman amongst many others. Plus, Byrnes is almost on pace for a 30/30 seaso. Joel dropped him on June 23 for Aaron Rowand during a slump, and Regan has been enjoying him ever since.
Worst - Marcus Giles (7th) - Giles has very little pop, very little speed, and very little on-base ability so far this year, and he is only ranked 18th amongst second basemen, not even beating Cano, Mark DeRosa, Mark Ellis, or Jose Lopez. His line is .242/4/31 at the break.

Jason
Best - Dan Haren (14th) - Another case of being dropped too soon, Jason dropped this All-Star game starter after two weeks for Chris Duncan. Haren then went on to win 10 straight and put up enough points to be second rated starting pitcher, contributing those points to Joel’s team. Haren has now been traded to Ryan. But don’t worry, Jason will get credit for a free agent pickup later.
Worst - Travis Hafner (2nd) - By the time Hafner got hurt last year in the first weekend of September, he already had 42 HR, 117 RBI, and was batting .308. He would need some kind of miracle to reach those numbers now with his .262/14/57 line. Hafner, ranked 31st overall for hitters, still possesses an OPS below .850 for the season. Last year it was 1.097.

Glen
Best - Cole Hamels (13th) - A tough decision again between Hamels in the 13th and Chipper Jones in the 18th. Again I went with pitching, but this time only because Jones was hurt for a period of time. Hamels is the fifth ranked pitcher overall and is tied for first in the NL in wins and is second in strikeouts. Other pitchers taken in the 13th: Chris Ray, Dontrelle Willis, and Derek Lowe.
Worst - Derrek Lee (4th) - Lee, where hast all thine power gone? Six homeruns in half a season?! Can’t be what you want out of your 4th rounder, even if he is batting .330. Also, he is on pace for 85 RBI and is the 17th ranked first baseman, with Youkilis, Swisher and Casey Blake all beating him out.

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Five best free agent pickups:

5. Chone Figgins by Dusty on June 5
4. Hunter Pence by Kirk on May 15
3. J.J. Hardy by Dusty on May 5
2. Mike Lowell by Jeremy on May 10
1. Brad Penny by Jason on April 2

Five worst player drops:

5. Ryan Braun by Ryan on May 30
4. Eric Byrnes by Joel on June 13
3. Ken Griffey, Jr. by Robby on March 28
2. Dan Haren by Jason on April 17
1. Magglio Ordonez by Jeremy on April 20

Most lopsided trade that looked fair when it happened:

Joel trades Vladmir Guerrero to Jason for Carlos Beltran and Dan Wheeler

Moment of the year for far:

Robby bringing a “consultant” to the draft, and now being 400 points out of 9th place.