Baseball Notes

Since a week after the 2007 World Series ended, we have seen a fury of player movements. Drops, deals, signings, and salary negotiations have been rampant the past three months. As a matter of fact, in my quick glance at everything, it looks like the Red Sox and Dodgers are the only teams that have not made a trade since the season ended. So how do you keep track of it all, and what does it all mean for next year? Well, that’s why I am here…

In what will be a six-part piece, I will go through each division and touch on the major (and some minor) moves each team has made since October and try to provide a little bit of analysis as to what it does for each team going forward and looking at 2008.

In the last post, I discussed specific projection systems that you can now find online or in print. So I won’t get into a lot of making predictions about how players or teams will perform, but rather try to look at the impact each move will have on the upcoming season whether positively or negatively. Some of it will be from a sabermetric perspective, while some of it will just be one man’s opinion, and everything else in-between.

So let’s going alphabetically, beginning with the AL Central.

Chicago White Sox

11-7-2007: Agreed to terms on a one-year contract with Juan Uribe
This signing became irrelevant when the White Sox made their next move. Uribe will come off the bench in 2008.

11-19-2007: Acquired SS Orlando Cabrera and cash from the Angels for RHP Jon Garland
Remember all of the White Sox who had outstanding years in 2006? Jermaine Dye, AJ Pierzsynski, Paul Konerko, and Joe Crede? Well, all of them regressed back to the mean last year and the White Sox suffered because of it. Trying to pack some more punch into the lineup, the Sox added a shortstop who was 5th amongst AL shortstops in ‘07 for VORP and 4th in RC. The White Sox rotation is now left with a hole that will more than likely be filled by Gavin Floyd, who started 10 games last year, who had a VORP of 2.4, which is actually higher than their number four probable, John Danks. But Floyd also had an ERA+ of only 90.

11-20-2007: Designated OF Scott Podsednik for assignment
Finally! Sure, Podsednik could single-handedly win you a steals title in Rotisserie when he was was healthy four years ago, but he has been a sieve on the offense for more than two years (OBPs of .330 and .299).

11-28-2007: Signed RHP Scott Linebrink to a four-year deal
Linebrink goes to a bullpen that already has Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton as options, so Chicago hopes Linebrink will give them a solid 7-8-9 inning rotation a la Qualls-Wheeler-Lidge that worked so well for Houston for one year. At age 30, though, the only question is are they getting the Linebrink of 2004-05 (ERA+’s of 181 and 210) or 2006-07 (113 both years), when he was more average. Follow this closely, especially in the final two years of the deal.

12-3-2007: Acquired OF Carlos Quentin from Diamondbacks for a minor leaguer
Only interesting because this follows the same pattern as the Uribe signing. Picking up a player and then acquiring a better player at the same position. Quentin will also be on the bench after a promising start in ‘06 and then a miserable ‘07. He plays the same position as…

1-3-2008: Acquired OF Nick Swisher from Athletics for Gio Gonzalez, Fautino de los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney
Swisher has to come to Chicago to play left field because he is not supplanting Konerko at first, Thome at DH, or Dye in RF. The former darling of Billy Beane has drawn walks like a madman the past two years, but he lost 40 points in SLG last year and he strikes out a ton. Still, his VORP was over 31 last year and he should fit quite nicely in a lineup with Thome, Konerko, Dye, and Cabrera.

Cleveland Indians

11-20-07: Signed RHP Masahide Kobayashi to a two year contract with club option for 2010
Gotta be honest, I don’t know much about this guy. He did lead the Pacific League in saves in 2005 and became the only player in that league’s history to record seven straight 20-save seasons. With Borowski manning the 9th innings, you can’t ever have enough help, I guess. They didn’t need to really touch the offense anyway.

Detroit Tigers

10-29-2007: Acquired SS Edgar Renteria from the Braves for RHP Jair Jurrjens and OF Gorkys Hernandez
When the decision was made to move Carlos Guillen to first to better protect his health, a quality SS had to be found, because Neifi Perez was not going to cut it (and yes, he is still on their roster). Renteria was actually quite amazing last year despite missing more than 30 games due to injury. His .332/.390/.470 line in ‘07 was one of the best for NL SS, and he was 5th in the NL for SS in RC despite the time he missed. Sadly, though, he was only the fourth best SS in his own division. The scary thing is, if Renteria doesn’t bat 2nd in the lineup, he will probably bat 7th. More on that later.

11-12-2007: Acquired OF Jacque Jones from Cubs for INF Omar Infante
Jones will be the likely starter in LF for the Tigers on opening day. Wouldn’t it be great if all of our favorite teams had a player like Jones batting 9th in the lineup? Man, the Tigers lineup is stacked next year.

11-30-2007: Signed LHP Kenny Rogers to one-year contract, designated 1B Chris Shelton for assignment
Remember when Shelton had something like nine homeruns in the first 13 days of the 2006 season and had an OPS that was close to 2? Yeah, he really is nothing like that player at all. Good luck with the Rangers, Chris.

12-5-2007: Acquired LHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins for RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP Dallas Trahern, LHP Andrew Miller, C Mike Rabelo and OF Cameron Maybin
By far the biggest trade so far this offseason. The Tigers gave up a whole lot, but also get a bundle back in return, especially in Cabrera, perhaps the best under-25 bat in the majors. Let me put it this way: take any overall cumulative, encompassing offensive stat you want - VORP, RC, OPS, WPA, EqA, BRAA, whatever - Cabrera was top 12 amongst all major leaguers in all of them. And he will only turn 25 next year.
Willis has unfortunately been heading in the opposite direction lately since his fabulous rookie campaign in 2003 and second place Cy Young finish in 2005. In the past three years, his strikeouts have dropped from 170 to 146 while his WHIP has risen from 1.134 to 1.597 in the same timeframe. His BABIP the past three years has risen from .289 to .329 so he has been a bit unlucky lately, and his move to an even larger ballpark won’t hurt - although the potent AL lineups might.
More will be said about the Marlins side when we get to that point, but the Tigers did have to give up Baseball America’s 6th best prospect for the 2007 season. And four of the five guys who were ahead of Cameron Maybin are now regulars in MLB. Maybin could be the Marlins’ CF for the next 12 years if they decide to pay him.

Kansas City Royals

12-6-2007: Signed OF Jose Guillen to a three-year contract
Is it just a coincidence that Guillen just signed a three-year contract and his maturity level is also that of a three year-old? But past personal and social problems aside, Guillen has put together some solid years in the past, including last year with a .290/.353/.460 line. Guillen will be 32 next season and PECOTA currently only projects him at EqA’s of .263, .255, and .258 over the next three years, but he may get a chance to drive in some runs in a lineup with Mark Teahen, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and John Buck.

1-3-2008: Signed Hideo Nomo to a minor league contract with spring training invitation
Is this guy still alive? Nomo last pitched at age 36 in 2005 when he started 19 games for Tampa Bay and posted an ERA of 7.24 and ERA+ of 60.

Minnesota Twins

10-11-2007: Activated LHP Francisco Liriano from the 60-day disabled list.
Who knows if he will actually pitch and be effective coming off Tommy John surgery and a layoff of over a year, but this now 24-year old pitcher blew everyone away in 2006, going 12-3 with an ERA of 2.16 and an ERA+ of 207!!! That really starts to mean something when you consider 100 is average. No decision has been made as to when he will start throwing or where he will even begin the 2008 season, but the Twins now desperately need Liriano in the rotation when Santana leaves. They will be left with guys named Bonser, Baker and Slowey - and that’s it.

11-13-2007: Acquired Craig Monroe from the Cubs for a player to be named.
I think I was next on the Twins’ depth chart to play CF after Torii Hunter left, so they had to sign someone to play the position, even an OF with a -2.4 VORP and .204/.291/.347 for the Cubs in 2007 (VORP with the Tigers was -15.7).

11-28-2007: Traded RHP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett and RHP Eduardo Morlan to TB for OK Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie.
After the club got rid of Lew Ford and Jason Tyner, there were no viable LF available on the roster, so the Twins take a chance on a very talented, but volatile player. Young actually played in every game in 2007 and posted 13 HR and 93 RBI. Bill James predicts better numbers across the board for Young, projecting a .301 Avg, 15 HR, 89 RBI, and 15 SB.

12-13-2007: Signed SS Adam Everett to a one year contract.
and
12-14-2007: Signed 3B Mike Lamb to a two year contract with club option for 2010.
The Astros’ left side of the infield for much of 2007 moves over to Minnesota after the overhaul in Houston. Both are expected to win starting jobs and both will be asked to do what they have become known for - Lamb to be a competent left-handed bat in the middle of the order and Everett to continue to be the best defensive SS in the majors. Everett will be 31 this season, so a slowdown may be coming in the next couple of years, but as long as they don’t count on him for his bat, you know what you are getting. Lamb’s line in 42 career PAs in the Metrodome is only .243/.317/.348, but that is hardly a big enough sample size from which to draw any conclusions.

All of these moves and the biggest one for the AL Central may not have even happened yet. When Johan Santana is traded, we will go back and look at the shockwaves that the deal causes across MLB and specifically for the Twins.

AL East will be up in a few days.