Baseball Notes

Wrapping up the AL now with the four-team AL West. In this, the division in baseball with the fewest teams, some of the biggest moves of the off-season have taken place. But, the balance of power seems to have stayed where it was at the end of the 2007 season, with two teams standing out and two teams struggling to reach the next level.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

11-19-2007: Acquired RHP Jon Garland from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for SS Orlando Cabrera and cash.
We have discussed the trade from the White Sox perspective already, so now for the Angels’ side. In my opinion, this trade does two things to the Angels’ rotation. 1. It gives them a capable fourth starter behind John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Jered Weaver. And 2. It bumps Ervin Santana down to sixth on their rotation, meaning they will not have to suffer the horrible home/road splits he puts up year after year. In case you forgot, I will give you three simple numbers to remind you of his amazing, almost mind-blowing splits:
Home ERA - 3.27 Road ERA - 8.38
Home OPS - .696 Road OPS - 1.005
Home BABIP - .293 Road BABIP - .360
But, this move also leaves Erick Aybar at SS instead of Cabrera. Fortunately, the Angels picked up another big bat this offseason, because Aybar had an OBP and SLG% last year under .300 in almost 200 PA.
Garland moves to a team that should have a bit more of a stable offense than the White Sox had the past three years (the White Sox scored about 180 runs fewer in 2007 than in 2006), at least helping his run support somewhat.

11-21-07: Signed free agent OF Torii Hunter to a five-year contract.
The past two seasons, Hunter has been fortunate enough to bat just behind Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau of the Twins, two very capable and outstanding hitters. Fortunately for Hunter, he really won’t experience too much of a dropoff when he lines up for the Angels batting just behind Chone Figgins, Gary Matthews, and Vladimir Guerrero.
The Angels will have Hunter locked up for his age 32-36 seasons, so there is a bit of concern there, but not as much concern as there should be with Hunter’s offensive trends. In 2002, Hunter had a fantastic year where his line was .289/.334/.524, he made the All-Star team (remember the catch on Barry Bonds?), and was 6th in MVP voting. He had a bit of a down year in 2003, but from 2003 to 2007, Hunter’s numbers in RC/G, OPS+, and EqA increased every single year, culminating in a top-15 finish in MVP voting again last year. A five-year span of that happening is very impressive and, I would guess, quite uncommon. That is something that simply can not keep happening over the next five years now that Hunter is leaving his “prime” age range. Hunter also never, EVER walks (career .324 OBP), showing that he is a free swinger, something that also doesn’t bode well for him growing older unless he learns more patience.

Two other quick notes about Hunter’s deal:
Assuming either Matthews or Garrett Anderson will be the DH, that essentially eliminates Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera from the lineup. Willits was fantastic as a rookie last year, with a line of .293/.391/.344, And while he will never be the power threat Hunter can be, Willits walked 69 times in only 136 games - 19 more walks than Hunter has ever had in a season in his career.
For all the hype you hear about Hunter’s defense and all the catches he made running into that big garbage bag in the Metrodome, Hunter’s fielding runs RATE (imagine it like OPS+ where 100 is average, so someone with a RATE of 110 saved 10 runs in the field over what the average player would) over the past five seasons have been 94, 102, 92, 104, and 99. In other words, less than average for five years.

Oakland A’s

12-14-2007: Traded RHPs Dan Haren and Connor Robertson to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for LHPs Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter and OFs Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez.
Everyone is familiar with the A’s and their moneyball reputation and BillyBeane’s philosophy of getting as much as you can for the least amount of money possible, so this move interested me from the Oakland perspective. I have referenced a couple of these articles in previous posts, but I want to go back to Baseball Prospectus’ Future Shock series looking at the top minor leaguers in each system. From this article on December 17, just after this trade, you can see that Oakland’s top 11 prospects were:
Daric Barton
Carlos Gonzalez
Brett Anderson
Trevor Cahill
Chris Carter
James Simmons
Aaron Cunningham
Henry Rodriguez
Andrew Bailey
Corey Brown
Jermaine Mitchell
In other words, four of Oakland’s new top-11 prospects came from this trade with Arizona. Daric Barton will be their 1b on opening day this year, barring something catastrophic, and the rotation still consists of Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin, Justin Duchscherer, and Leo DiNardo. All in all, not a bad way to significantly improve the farm.

1-3-2008: Traded OF Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for LHP Gio Gonzalez, RHP Fautino De Los Santos and OF Ryan Sweeney.
And then came this deal - another player who would soon demand quite a bit more money, so the A’s dealt him for more prospects. So another update of the top 11 prospects was needed. You can find it here, or here is the new list:
Daric Barton
Carlos Gonzalez
Fautino De Los Santos
Brett Anderson
Gio Gonzalez
Trevor Cahill
Chris Carter
James Simmons
Aaron Cunningham
Henry Rodriguez
Andrew Bailey
So while this deal leaves Oakland with an OF of Emil Brown, Chris Denorfia, and Travis Buck, if you are counting at home, six of their top 11 prospects are direct results of these two deals. And some people wonder if Billy Beane really is a genius or not…

1-17-2008: Signed RHP Huston Street to a one-year contract.
A must-do move for the A’s to lock up a 24-year-old closer for at least another year who was the 2005 ROY, and who has never had a WHIP higher than 1.09 or and ERA+ lower than 134. Avoiding arbitration was also another factor.

Seattle Mariners

12-12-2007: Acquired Minor League INF Tug Hulett from the Texas Rangers in exchange for 1B Ben Broussard and invited Hulett to Spring Training.
I documented some of this last year, but the Mariners must really be counting on a huge Richie Sexson rebound to get rid of Broussard and his capable bat. Sexson can’t get any worse or any more unlucky than he was in 2007 (.217 BABIP), but Mike Morse is now the only legitimate backup at first. For more than $15m, the M’s better hope Sexson can rebound.

12-20-2007: Signed RHP Carlos Silva to a four-year contract with a mutual option for 2012.
Not to the extreme of an Ervin Santana, but Carlos Silva has quite the home/road split for his entire career. His ERA, OPS allowed, BABIP line at home for five years is 3.76/.736/.292 while it jumps to 4.93/.849/.326 on the road.
A lot is made of what a great pitcher’s park Safeco field is in Seattle, and how it will help Silva. But in reality, Safeco and the Metrodome both ranked a 96 on multi-year park factor in 2007, so those two parks are equally advantageous to the pitcher. What Silva has to do is keep his incredible walk rate where it has been the past few years, when he was in the top 5 in the AL from 2004 to 2007, including leading the AL with a .43 BB/9 ratio in 2005.

*And as of now, the Mariners are also actively trying to trade for Baltimore’s Erik Bedard. More on that if it happens.

Texas Rangers

12-12-2007: Signed OF Milton Bradley to a one-year contract; Acquired 1B Ben Broussard from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Minor League INF Tug Hulett
Say hello to the new RF and 1B for the Texas Rangers. With no Mark Teixeira or (insert name of any Rangers’ many ‘07 RF), someone had to be found to man those positions. We have talked in the Mariners section and in a previous post about Broussard’s capabilities last season, but we will have to wait and see if he can stay productive over 550 PA or more.

And on Milton Bradley. First of all, the bad things:
He has played in more than 101 games once in his career
He has played for five teams in seven seasons
He can disrupt a clubhouse better than anyone
He is a bad guy - and I just don’t like him.

And now the good things:
Posted an OPS+ over 100 each of the last five seasons (when he played)
He does take walks and get on base (lowest OBP over the past five years was .350 in 2005, corresponding to the year when he had his highest batting average)
At least he is playing for another contract, whether with the Rangers or someone else

12-21-2007: Acquired OF Josh Hamilton from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RHP Edinson Volquez and Minor League LHP Danny Herrera.
And the Rangers new CF is the infamous Josh Hamilton, he of so many drug and addiction problems, but with so much talent the Reds took a shot on him last year and Texas does the same this year. Finally sober and cleaned up, Hamilton, as a rookie, had 56 RC in limited playing time due to injury. That’s roughly the same number Luke Scott, Moises Alou, and Matt Diaz produced in 2007. Hamilton’s line was also .292/.368/.554 - good numbers for anyone, much less a rookie.
Hamilton is 27 now, but has been given the starting job in Texas, so watch what he does this season assuming he doesn’t have the recurrence of injury problems that he had last year. This is just an all-around good story for a former #1 draft pick who everyone gave up on. And to think, when he was drafted, the debate was whether he or Josh Beckett would turn out better. Hamilton certainly has a ways to go…

1-11-2008: Signed LHP Eddie Guardado to a one-year contract
No more Gagne and no more Otsuka means the Rangers needed to find someone for the closer’s role. For a two year stretch, Guardado was THE MAN. Unfortunately, those two years came in 2002-2003, not in 2006-07. In his two best years, Guardado had 86 combined saves and an ERA+ of 155. But in the last two years with Seattle and Cincinnati, Guardado saved 13 games, has an ERA+ under 100, while being hit with multiple injuries. His 2007 ERA was 7.24 with an equally awful WHIP of 1.463.
Now 37, Easy Eddie will compete with C.J. Wilson for the closer’s role on the Texas staff. Wilson has better peripherals all around, especially against left handers, but he might relegated to the left-handed specialist role if Guaradado proves he still has any gas in the tank.

1-17-2008: Signed RHP Jason Jennings to a one-year contract
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU200707290.shtml
I’m just warning you, Rangers fans…

We will come back and start the National League side of things next week.