Baseball Notes

Being about three weeks from the start of Spring Training, most of the deals and signings have been completed, with the exception of the Santanas and the Bonds out there who are still looking and wondering where they will be in two months.

We have already gone through the AL side of things, looking at each teams major (and a few minor) deals and signings. Today starts the Senior Circuit, beginning with the largest division in baseball, the NL Central.

Chicago Cubs

11-26-2007: Re-signed free agent RHP Kerry Wood to a one-year contract
With some combination of Zambrano, Hill, Lieber, Lilly, Marquis, and Marshall rounding out the rotation, Wood is obviously being brought back for the bullpen. Wood has played in only 47 games the past three years due to injury, starting 14 of them. In 2003, Wood finally rounded into form the way many expected he would after his 1998 Rookie of the Year campaign including the game where he threw a one-hitter and struck out 20 Astros. IN ‘03 he became an All Star, going 14-11 with a 3.33 ERA and 135 ERA+. Then the injuries started, and from 2004 to 2006, the numbers became merely mediocre for such a talent. Finally returning from injury last year to come out of the bullpen in 22 games, Wood had an ERA+ of 140 (his highest ever), and began to get consideration for the closer role. With Dempster likely out of that role this season, it may be between Howry and Wood come Spring Training.

12-12-2007: Did not tender a 2008 contract to RHP Mark Prior, making him a free agent.
And here is the other Cubs phenom to succumb to injury woes after such a promising start to his career. Prior was the #2 overall pick out of USC in 2001, and after a very strong rookie year in 2002, the Cubs thought they had hit the jackpot in 2003 after an outstanding 18-6 season with a 2.43 ERA (two runs lower than the lgERA), a 1.103 WHIP, 178 ERA+ (2nd highest in the NL), 245 Ks, and a PRAR of 104. Then, after a mental breakdown in the 2003 NLCS, the injuries started up, and Prior has pitched inn just 57 games in the past four seasons, and none last year.
On December 26, Prior signed a one-year contract with the Padres worth $1m, but includes $4.5m in incentives.

12-19-2007: Signed OF Kosuke Fukudome to a four-year contract.
This four year deal was in the neighborhood of $48 million dollars which immediately makes Fukudome the fourth highest paid position player on the team.
From ESPN: Fukudome “has 192 homers with a .305 batting average and .397 on-base percentage over nine seasons with the Chunichi Dragons,” but he also had elbow surgery in August, something the Cubs must not be worried about too much if they signed the 30-year-old for four years. Fukudome apparently also told the Cubs he is most comfortable batting third, but with Soriano, Lee and Ramirez in that lineup, I just don’t see that happening.

1-16-2008: Signed RHP Jon Lieber to a one-year contract.
If Dempster and Marshall are both going to be in the rotation, this move makes a little less sense than it already does. Lieber, while he did win 20 games in 2001, will be 38 the first week of the season and he has had an ERA+ that is only perfectly average the past four years. The past two years, his ERA has been above the adjusted lgERA with an average WHIP around 1.375.
The Cubs hope these numbers suffice for a #4 or 5 pitcher moving from one of the premier hitter’s parks in the league (Citizen’s Bank Park).

Cincinnati Reds

10-31-2007: Exercised the 2008 contract options on 1B Scott Hatteberg, OF Adam Dunn and C Javier Valentin.
I want to discuss Dunn here, who will receive $13 million from the Reds after they exercised his 2008 option, the last year on his contract. Dunn is an amazing power hitter. He now has at least 40 HR in four straight seasons. Off the top of my head I can’t think of anyone else who can claim that feat. Despite the number of strikeouts, his OBP has always been amazing because of the number of walks he takes (over 100 for four straight years). But if I were the Reds - and I’m not, they are way smarter than me - I just would not pay Dunn $13 million to play in left field.
In 2007, Dunn’s Batting Runs Above Average was 32 - so 32 runs better than your average LF. In the same season, his Fielding Runs Above Average was -18 or 18 runs worse than your average LF. If you go by the common perception of 10 runs earned or lost for a player equals a win or loss, the Reds are losing two extra games per year by leaving Dunn in left.
People say “move him to first to make up for it!” Hold on there. For his career, Dunn’s Fielding Rate (where 100 is average, and it is measured over 100 game periods) is 91 in 830 games in left. In 108 games at first, his Fielding Rate is 92. Both numbers come in well below average.
Dunn belongs in the AL, plain and simple.

11-28-2007: Signed free agent RHP Francisco Cordero to a four-year contract with a club option for 2012.
This contract is for four years, $48m, with a club option for year five (not to mention a full no-trade clause for the first two years). Do you think if he had opened 2007 with 30 or 35 straight saves instead of only 22 they would have given him 50 or 60 million?
These contracts for relievers who only pitch 60-80 innings a year are getting a little ridiculous, right? If you do want to look at just saves, we can - after the 22 straight, he was only 22 for 29 the rest of the year. But looking at some deeper numbers, I can try and show you why $48m is just not worth it. And we don’t have to go any farther than the Reds to do it. Let’s compare Jared Burton (of the Reds’ bullpen) and Cordero from last year:

Cordero: ERA 2.98, ERA+ 150, HR/9 0.57, AVG. .225, WHIP 1.11, BABIP .341, LOB% 73.4
Burton: ERA 2.51, ERA+ 185, HR/9 0.42, AVG. .188, WHIP 1.16, BABIP .234, LOB% 75.2

Cordero will make $8.5m next year, while Burton will make about $400K. Now I am not saying that Burton should be handed the job based on one season of great work, I mean Cordero has 177 career saves under his belt, but I think smarter decisions need to be made when deciding where to spend almost $50m.

Houston Astros

11-7-2007: Acquired OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo and RHP Geoff Geary from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Brad Lidge and SS Eric Bruntlett.
Costanzo, a great 3B prospect, went away in another trade, so this inevitably left the Astros with Bourn and Geary for Lidge (Bruntlett was just a role player throw-in). Obviously the Astros decided to give up on Lidge, who they felt (wrong or right) that he never recovered from the 2005 NLCS Pujols homerun in game 5. We will discuss Lidge when we get to the NL East, but now we must look at Bourn, the Astros’ probably opening day CF. Bourn is the fastest guy the Astros have seen in a long time, but as he will be hitting leadoff, he must be judged as a true leadoff hitter - and not just against the Astros’ former failures at that spot the past three years (Biggio and Taveras). His OBP of .348 in 119 games as a rookie last year falls right in line with his numbers in the minors, as does his SLG of .378. His BB/9 rate of 9.8% is a little low, and the Astros desperately need him to learn patience at the plate. The Bill James, Marcels, and PECOTA weighted means projections all have Bourn listed at less than 300 PA for the year, so that doesn’t bode well for the projectionists thinking he will keep his job. The other options are Reggie Abercrombie and Darin Erstad, so it definitely doesn’t get any better.

11-16-2007: Acquired RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Braves in exchange for OF Josh Anderson.
Out of all the Astros’ moves in the offseason, this one might be the best for Houston in terms of what they gave up and got back. Anderson was a great hitter in his limited role in 2007, and Lord knows the Astros could use some backup OF help, but with Lidge, Qualls and Wheeler all gone, the bullpen is in a desperate situation. Villareal has a career 3.71 ERA and 121 ERA+. He has pitched over 75 innings three times, and over 90 twice. He looks like the new 8th-inning man in Houston

12-2-2007: Signed free agent 2B Kazuo Matsui to a three-year contract.
This deal is worth $16.5m for a 32-year-old second baeman. I guess that’s better than a 41-year-old second baseman like 2007. Matusi is the latest marginal player to parlay a good season or two in Colorado to a large contract somewhere else. One day, someone is going to catch on that these park-inflated numbers have a very hard time carrying over to other, less hitter-friendly parks. You name an offensive stat, and Matsui had his career high in it last year: AVG, OBP, R, SB, BABIP, RC, or whatever. And when you reach your career highs at age 31 while only playing in 104 games, you know something must be up.
Matsui is, however, a very competent 2B, with career numbers all on the plus side for any defensive metric you can find. This deal might work out in the Astros favor as long as they keep Matsui out of the two hole like is being discussed by Cooper and Wade, and drop him down to about 7th behind all the bigger bats.

12-12-2007: Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, LHP Troy Patton, RHP Dennis Sarfate and 3B Mike Costanzo; Did not offer a 2008 contract to SS Adam Everett, making him a free agent.
Let’s pretend for a minute that there is no chance of the Astros having to play 25, 50, or even 162 games this year without Tejada, and examine the trade as the Astros intended it when it actually happened. Anyone who thinks the Astros are getting the same SS who was the MVP in 2002 or the 150-RBI man from 2004 needs to rethink things, and not just because of steroid allegations. Still, Tejada’s 162 game averages for his career look like .287/.344/.477 with 181 hits, 27 HR, and 108 RBI. That is a stout offense for any NL shortstop, even if they do play in the NL east. Comparing Tejada to the previous SS regime, it’s not even close. From 1999 to 2006 in Tejada’s amazing games played streak, the lowest number of Runs Created for one season was 94. Everett, on the other hand, has never had more than 60 RC in a year.
Comparing the defense of the two, where you could argue Everett makes up ground; the numbers for RZR were .871 for Everett and .830 for Tejada in 2007. For FRAA, Everett is at 26, while Tejada comes in at -12 for the past three years. There is your big difference, but Tejada’s bat doubles the difference when comparing offensive runs.

12-14-2007: Acquired RHP Jose Valverde from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for INF Chris Burke, RHP Juan Gutierrez and RHP Chad Qualls
Losing Brad Lidge and getting Valverde, the NL leader in saves for ‘07, no problem right? Well maybe, maybe not. You see, if you look up VORP for relievers and total WPA (where relievers’ numbers are telling because the best make their livings in late inning pressure situations), you won’t find Valverde’s name in the top 20 of either of those lists for MLB last year.
Yes, Valverde has some good peripheral stats in his career, namely 11.46 K/9 and a .209 BAA, but the numbers like 3.84 BB/9 and .81 GB/FB ratio do scare me somewhat.

Milwaukee Brewers

10-30-2007: Declined the club option on OF Geoff Jenkins.
Thus ending the reign of the current longest-tenured player on the Brewers’ roster. The OF is crowded now with Cameron and Braun moving there, so someone had to go.

11-20-2007: Acquired RHP Guillermo Mota from the New York Mets in exchange for C Johnny Estrada.
Mota has not pitched less than 55 innings since 2001, so he is certainly a dependable reliever to eat up some innings. But the numbers tell the tale of his performance. His ERA has increased every year since his career year of 2003 with the Dodgers. Could it be that his 76 games and 105 innings pitched that year taxed his arm too much? Perhaps. His ERA+ has been decreasing as well - from 204 in 2003 to 74 last year. But all the Brewers had to do was give up their starting catcher to get Mota. And who did they get to fill that spot….

11-28-2007: Signed free agent C Jason Kendall to a one-year contract with a vesting option for 2009.
There was actually a time when Kendall was considered a really good player. Despite the fact that he never has hit for power (although he reached double digit HR three times), Kendall used to be an on-base machine, reaching .370 seven times in his first nine seasons, and passing .410 three times. Last year, that number was a career low .301 with the A’s and Cubs, and he only had 44 Runs Created, more than 20 lower than his career low to that point. But he still winds up with a job year after year even though he no longer hits for average, gets on base, hits for power, steals bases, or scores runs. Milwaukee is just the latest suitor in a desperate catcher situation.

12-10-2007: Signed RHP Eric Gagne to a one-year contract.
The Brewers sure do have a lot of turnover in the closer department, don’t they? Kolb, Turnbow, Cordero, and now Gagne. Gagne had probably the most dominant three year run of any closer in history, saving 52, 55, and 45 games - but what is less known is that he threw exactly 82.3 innings in all of those years as well, likely killing his arm. Gagne missed all but 16 games over 2005 and 2006 with various injuries and surgery. In 2007, his first year back, Gagne was again dominant in his half-season with Texas, but downright awful in the other half with Boston. Let’s see how Gagne responds coming back to the NL, more specifically the perpetually weak NL Central.

1-14-2008: Signed OF Mike Cameron to a one-year contract with a club option for 2009.
The new center fielder. Well, he will be the new center fielder beginning with game number 26

Pittsburgh Pirates

2-5-2008: Signed INF Freddy Sanchez to a two-year contract, with a club option for the 2010 season.
This is by far the most significant move of the offseason for the Pirates, if that tells you anything about the state of that ballclub.

St. Louis Cardinals

12-15-2007: Traded OF Jim Edmonds to the Padres for Minor League 3B David Freese.
It seems like father time finally caught up with Edmonds, and the Padres, needing a CF, took a chance on the soon-to-be 38-year-old. More on his numbers when we discuss the Padres, but I just wanted to point out that no matter how old he is, I am not sad to see Edmonds leave St. Louis. He was always an Astros killer. From the walkoff extra inning homerun in game six of the 2004 NLCS to his game-saving catch in center the next night to the walk he drew in game five of the 2005 NLCS to bring Pujols to the plate in that fabled at bat vs. Brad Lidge; I always hated him, but I always admired him. I don’t really buy into clutch at all, but if there was ever one guy who I would say was clutch against Houston, it was this guy. One of the two or three best highlight center fielders of my generation.

1-14-2008: Acquired 3B Troy Glaus from the Blue Jays for 3B Scott Rolen.
We talked about this a little bit when we dissected the Blue Jays, but essentially it was a trade of a potential problem for a potential problem. Rolen and his inability to get along with LaRussa and Cardinal management for Glaus and his chronic injury woes. Only somewhat surprisingly, Glaus has hit over .262 once in his entire career - but his OBP/SLG are still a great .358/.500 for his career. Glaus’ 162-game averages of 36 HR and 101 RBI would rank him as a top-5 offensive third baseman in the NL, if he can stay healthy. Since 1999, Glaus has never had an OPS+ below 113 while only playing one of those years in a park that favored hitters over pitchers - his one season in Arizona in 2005.

1-21-2008: Signed C Yadier Molina to a four-year extension with a club option for a fifth season.
Let’s hope his next four years (ages 25-28, mind you) are better than his first four, where his line reads .248/.304/.349. Those numbers are pulled down somewhat by his horrible 2006 season where he was one of the worst offensive players in baseball, but he has to have a season where he earns more than an 85 OPS+, something he hasn’t done up to this point. Molina’s evident value at this point in his career is certainly his defense - he threw out 50% of basestealers in 2007, and the Cardinals are banking on that to continue. And who knows, maybe they just got Molina in case they make the playoffs. In 29 career playoff games, Molina’s line is .316/.356/.453.

And that’s all for the NL Central, my friends. The NL East will be up in a few days. Geez, this is more than 3,000 words. I need to get a life.