We continue now with part two of six in our looking and evaluating transactions since the end of the World Series in October; helping you, the rabid baseball fan keep track of it all. One major trade in this division in on the verge of being completed, so we will dissect that one when we get to that team.

On to the AL East:

Baltimore Orioles

10-23-2007: Activated LHP Erik Bedard, RHP Kris Benson, OF Jay Gibbons, LHP Adam Loewen and RHP Chris Ray from the 60-day disabled list.
This note is important only because Bedard and Ray are both coming off injuries, Ray’s being Tommy John surgery so he will probably miss most, if not all, of the 2008 season. I guess you could classify Ray as a middle of the road closer, a bit below average. The strange thing is, Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker both had much better numbers in the ERA+ department. Is this a situation of addition by subtraction? Ray had four blown saves and two other losses in half the season last year.
Bedard, on the other hand, should be completely ready for spring training, but who knows if that spring training will be with the Orioles. Despite missing more than a month at the end of the season, Bedard was fourth in MLB in strikeouts and 13th in VORP. At only 29, and presuming he is healthy with that dominating curve, Bedard should be in line for another fabulous year. Bill James projects him at an ERA of 3.69 and 207 Ks.

12-12-2007: Acquired LHP Troy Patton, OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, RHP Dennis Sarfate and nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo from the Astros for SS Miguel Tejada.
According to this Baseball Prospectus article of how AL deals have affected the lists of top prospects in each system, the Orioles all of a sudden added the fifth ranked prospect and 11th ranked prospect in their minor leagues with Troy Patton and Mike Costanzo. That is a lot to get in a deal, but they are giving up one of the top slugging shortstops around (more on the Astros side when we look at NL). Add Matt Albers, a potential #3 starter as well, and it looks like the Orioles made out on top with this deal. Luke Scott looks like he may be another Jay Gibbons and he was not part of the Astros’ plans with Hunter Pence moving to right, so he will fight for playing time with the Orioles.

Boston Red Sox

11-2-2007: Red Sox exercised the 2008 contract options on RHP Julian Tavarez and RHP Tim Wakefield
The Red Sox will keep exercising their year-to-year option on Tim Wakefield until his arm falls off or until he dies. I am convinced of this.

11-6-2007: Signed RHP Curt Schilling to a one-year contract
Some didn’t think Schilling would come back one more year. Some didn’t think the Red Sox would sign him to another deal. But facts are facts; Schilling still accumulated 16.22 Batting Runs Above Average and had an ERA of 3.87 as a 41-year-old. And in case you forgot - he was 3-0 in the 2007 postseason.

11-20-2007: Re-signed 3B Mike Lowell to a three-year contract
Let’s look at some facts. Mike Lowell will be 34 when the season starts and when this new contract begins. Mike Lowell had an average of .320 last year with 120 RBI. Mike Lowell has never been within 15 points of either of these numbers for any season in his career. Last year, Mike Lowell had an OPS of .879. Mike Lowell’s park-adjusted OPS (taking him out of Fenway and putting him in a neutral offensive park) was .781. In 2007, Mike Lowell had a BABIP of .342, in the top 20 in the AL. In 2007, the four guys who usually hit in front of Mike Lowell all had BABIPs in the top 25 in the AL (Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, Ramirez). Last year, Mike Lowell was lucky.
That being said, I can’t really blame the rich Red Sox for re-signing Lowell. His swing seems to be tailor-made for Fenway. Many of those doubles off the wall last year are probably fly outs in the Marlin’s stadium in Miami. So I don’t doubt he can be great again at least for one more year in Boston. But just for fun some day, look at his home/road splits in ‘07. It’s pretty ridiculous.

12-1-2007: Offered arbitration to RHP Eric Gagne and RHP Mike Timlin and declined to offer arbitration to RHP Matt Clement, C Doug Mirabelli, INF Royce Clayton, INF Eric Hinske and OF Bobby Kielty.
Gagne is gone so Timlin is the only one of this bunch that is back from the 2007 champs. I know I am just nitpicking now for a very complete team, but they better find some bench players besides Alex Cora.

New York Yankees

11-29-2007: Re-signed free agent C Jorge Posada to a four-year contract.
Let’s continue our lesson on BABIP, shall we? Jorge Posada makes Mike Lowell look like your average player when you consider BABIP. Posada’s number of .389 in that category was fourth in the majors, and he has only had one year where he was within 30 points of that number! Two other numbers stick out from Posada’s 2007 as well; his average of .338 and 171 hits. He has never had numbers even close to those two in his career.
And all of this for a catcher who will be 36 this year. Four years for a catcher who was lucky this year? This signing I don’t particularly like.

12-1-2007: Declined to offer arbitration to RHP Roger Clemens, C Jose Molina and LHP Ron Villone.
I bet the Yankees are thanking their lucky stars right now Clemens decided not to come back.

12-12-2007: Signed LHP Andy Pettitte to a one-year contract.
Nothing wrong or particularly shocking about this deal. I just imagine that the Yankees were not counting on Pettitte admitting two weeks later that he did, in fact, use steroids in years past. Now they have to carry around that baggage and Andy will have it weighing on his mind all year.

12-13-2007: Signed 3B Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year contract.
…worth $275 million, that is.
Listen, we all know who A-Rod is, what he can do, what he can’t do in the playoffs, and that he will probably break Bonds’ HR record one day. So let’s not focus on what he has done, but what he is projected to do, at least for this next year, when he will turn 32.
Right now, I have access to four prominent projection systems for 2008. I do not subscribe yet to Baseball HQ and the PECOTA projections have not been released as of January 14. But the four I can see (Bill James, Marcels, CHONE, and ZiPS) have A-Rod broken down this way in 2008:

The average for those numbers in 2008 is .300/.405/.574, 42, 129, 17. Of course, A-Rod will probably not play until the end of this contract, unless there is some great record he is trying to break. He will theoretically have broken the HR record long before that time, and unless he is going for 4,000 hits, I don’t see any reason why he would keep playing past 40 or so. That being my opinion, I don’t know that this is such a bad deal for the Yankees, who can obviously afford it. $61 million is due on the last three years of the contract (the three that would most likely not be in effect), and no portion of the signing bonus is due after the 7th year either.
Also in the contract are clauses where bonuses kick in should be break certain milestones (i.e. Mays’ HR numbers, Ruth’s, Aaron’s , Bonds’, etc). And these milestones always bring in revenue from attendace, merchandise, TV, etc. They just better pray that they never want to trade him, because the deal has a full no trade clause and no one on earth could take on that contract as it stands now.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

11-14-2007: Activated OF Rocco Baldelli from the 60-day disabled list.
Don’t worry, he will be back on by the time the season starts.

11-30-2007: Signed RHP Troy Pervcival to a two-year contract.
Percival had not pitched in more than a year and a half when St. Louis grabbed him up last year. All Percival did was go 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 8.10 K/9.
Percival now becomes the closer for the Rays, and he will try to add to his 324 career saves, almost all of which were earned with the Angels from 1995-2004. Percival will turn 39 this year - but has almost two years less wear on his arm than other pitchers his age. In those 34 games last year, Percival did have the lowest LD% of his career and the highest GB% of his career. Use these numbers to temper your expectations when looking at what Percival can do with the Rays.

12-14-2007: Signed free agent OF Cliff Floyd to a one year deal with a club option for 2009.
Long gone is the .300/25/90 outfielder from so many years ago with the Marlins and Mets. Floyd has played in more than 113 games once since 2002 - and his best years seem to be fading away in the rearview mirror. This move was surely made to solidify the bench in case Baldelli or Jonny Gomes do not work out in RF.

1-11-2008: Invited 3B Evan Longoria (and others) to Spring Training.
No, not that Longoria. Considered one of the top bats in the minor leagues, Evan will have a shot to win the Rays’ 3B job this spring. Over two stops in the 2007 season, Longoria posted a .299/.402/.520 line with 26 HR and 95 RBI in 136 games.

Toronto Blue Jays

12-14-2007: Signed SS David Eckstein to a one year contract.
Got a one year deal because the Jays are wise enough to realize this is a player in steep decline. Offensively and defensively.
On defense, Eckstein rated .816, .844, and .841 from 2004-2006 in Revised Zone Rating. In 2007, he rated .783, fifth worst in the majors.
On offense, Eckstein’s Runs Created numbers and rank in the National League from 2005 to 2007 look like this:
2005: 106 Runs Created - 1st in NL
2006: 61 Runs Created - 8th in NL
2007: 58 Runs Created - 14th in NL
Unfortunately for Eckstein, he is a dying breed. Teams wants a SS who is a marginally good defensive player but who can produce tons of runs on offense. Eckstein is not either of those, so he will fight for the SS job on a mediocre team when he was once the sparkplug for two World Series winners.

1-14-2008: Acquired 3B Scott Rolen from St. Louis for 3B Troy Glaus.
How about we swap our perpetually hurt third baseman for your perpetually hurt third baseman? Rolen has missed at least 20 games for four straight years while Glaus has missed at least 45 games in three of the past five years. Will Carroll analyzes this trade very well in this article on BP, and says the most significant factor in this trade might be Glaus coming back to playing on grass instead of artificial turf, something that always contributed to his ankle and foot problems.
Except for Rolen’s fantastic 2004, Glaus has been the better slugger when both are healthy, but Rolen has soundly beaten Glaus in all defensive metrics, so you decide which you prefer. When it comes down to it, Carroll may be right; this trade might benefit both teams because it offers the players a chance to change something that they have needed for a while: Glaus’ injuries caused by playing on turf and Rolen’s continued feud with manager Tony La Russa.
Both teams hope a change of scenery leads to a change in the luck department when it comes to injury.

So there’s the AL East in a nutshell. We finish out the AL with the AL West in a few days.