A lot of great stuff this week online from a baseball stat and sabermetric perspective. I don’t want to take too much time building it up, so I will just get right into the details.

The Great Clutch Project

I mentioned this a few weeks ago, concerning Tom Tango asking fans to join him in a battle in the clutch debate where he will pit his “good” hitters against the fans’ choice for “clutch hitters” to see if there really is a way people can see and perceive clutch. The stats he is using are his Leverage Index scores and wOBA (weighted on base average), so if you are not familiar with those, read up on them. You can find the summary of the project here, and Fangraphs will be running the season tally here for 2008.

Never thought I would see a Ginger/Mary-Anne and clutch/non-clutch analogy used, but I guess nothing should surprise me anymore.

Hardball Times OF Arms

John Walsh of THT reveals his new defensive metric to measure OF arms, something that has always been missing and that is sorely needed in the defense discussion that has escalated in the past few years. You can search by year on their stats page here, and there is a lengthy description of the methodology at this link. The stats for the OF arms goes back to 2004.

Richard Justice’s war with the stat guys

Local sports writer for the Houston Chronicle has the stats world up in arms from his reaction to a post by Mitchel Lichtman on Justice’s blog piece this week about bunting and how it is always a bad idea. Apparently, Justice has long been a target of some bloggers for his inability to look past emotion and personal feelings and look at the numbers. And the blogosphere just can’t get enough of all of this. And all of this from a couple of sentences about how bunting is always bad in the situation with which the Astros were faced.

For the record, I fall somewhere in the middle of what Lichtman and what Keith Law propose (you need to read all the threads to understand where that is). A manager has to make a yes/no decision in that moment, but his job should be to be as prepared as he possibly can with all the available data that will help him make an educated decision. The ones that are too close to call? Well, that’s why a managers are paid the way they are.

Lineup Analysis

This is not a new tool by any means, but something I have been messing around with this week that I recommend. Baseball Musings hosts a page that has a Lineup Analyzer put together by Morong, Arneson, and Armburst that allows you to put in any nine players with their OBP and SLG and it will construct the ideal lineup based on those numbers, and their calculated comparison and analysis of the two.

Here is the page, use it on your favorite team for this year or any year.

Wrapping up the AL now with the four-team AL West. In this, the division in baseball with the fewest teams, some of the biggest moves of the off-season have taken place. But, the balance of power seems to have stayed where it was at the end of the 2007 season, with two teams standing out and two teams struggling to reach the next level.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

11-19-2007: Acquired RHP Jon Garland from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for SS Orlando Cabrera and cash.
We have discussed the trade from the White Sox perspective already, so now for the Angels’ side. In my opinion, this trade does two things to the Angels’ rotation. 1. It gives them a capable fourth starter behind John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Jered Weaver. And 2. It bumps Ervin Santana down to sixth on their rotation, meaning they will not have to suffer the horrible home/road splits he puts up year after year. In case you forgot, I will give you three simple numbers to remind you of his amazing, almost mind-blowing splits:
Home ERA - 3.27 Road ERA - 8.38
Home OPS - .696 Road OPS - 1.005
Home BABIP - .293 Road BABIP - .360
But, this move also leaves Erick Aybar at SS instead of Cabrera. Fortunately, the Angels picked up another big bat this offseason, because Aybar had an OBP and SLG% last year under .300 in almost 200 PA.
Garland moves to a team that should have a bit more of a stable offense than the White Sox had the past three years (the White Sox scored about 180 runs fewer in 2007 than in 2006), at least helping his run support somewhat.

11-21-07: Signed free agent OF Torii Hunter to a five-year contract.
The past two seasons, Hunter has been fortunate enough to bat just behind Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau of the Twins, two very capable and outstanding hitters. Fortunately for Hunter, he really won’t experience too much of a dropoff when he lines up for the Angels batting just behind Chone Figgins, Gary Matthews, and Vladimir Guerrero.
The Angels will have Hunter locked up for his age 32-36 seasons, so there is a bit of concern there, but not as much concern as there should be with Hunter’s offensive trends. In 2002, Hunter had a fantastic year where his line was .289/.334/.524, he made the All-Star team (remember the catch on Barry Bonds?), and was 6th in MVP voting. He had a bit of a down year in 2003, but from 2003 to 2007, Hunter’s numbers in RC/G, OPS+, and EqA increased every single year, culminating in a top-15 finish in MVP voting again last year. A five-year span of that happening is very impressive and, I would guess, quite uncommon. That is something that simply can not keep happening over the next five years now that Hunter is leaving his “prime” age range. Hunter also never, EVER walks (career .324 OBP), showing that he is a free swinger, something that also doesn’t bode well for him growing older unless he learns more patience.

Two other quick notes about Hunter’s deal:
Assuming either Matthews or Garrett Anderson will be the DH, that essentially eliminates Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera from the lineup. Willits was fantastic as a rookie last year, with a line of .293/.391/.344, And while he will never be the power threat Hunter can be, Willits walked 69 times in only 136 games - 19 more walks than Hunter has ever had in a season in his career.
For all the hype you hear about Hunter’s defense and all the catches he made running into that big garbage bag in the Metrodome, Hunter’s fielding runs RATE (imagine it like OPS+ where 100 is average, so someone with a RATE of 110 saved 10 runs in the field over what the average player would) over the past five seasons have been 94, 102, 92, 104, and 99. In other words, less than average for five years.

Oakland A’s

12-14-2007: Traded RHPs Dan Haren and Connor Robertson to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for LHPs Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter and OFs Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez.
Everyone is familiar with the A’s and their moneyball reputation and BillyBeane’s philosophy of getting as much as you can for the least amount of money possible, so this move interested me from the Oakland perspective. I have referenced a couple of these articles in previous posts, but I want to go back to Baseball Prospectus’ Future Shock series looking at the top minor leaguers in each system. From this article on December 17, just after this trade, you can see that Oakland’s top 11 prospects were:
Daric Barton
Carlos Gonzalez
Brett Anderson
Trevor Cahill
Chris Carter
James Simmons
Aaron Cunningham
Henry Rodriguez
Andrew Bailey
Corey Brown
Jermaine Mitchell
In other words, four of Oakland’s new top-11 prospects came from this trade with Arizona. Daric Barton will be their 1b on opening day this year, barring something catastrophic, and the rotation still consists of Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin, Justin Duchscherer, and Leo DiNardo. All in all, not a bad way to significantly improve the farm.

1-3-2008: Traded OF Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for LHP Gio Gonzalez, RHP Fautino De Los Santos and OF Ryan Sweeney.
And then came this deal - another player who would soon demand quite a bit more money, so the A’s dealt him for more prospects. So another update of the top 11 prospects was needed. You can find it here, or here is the new list:
Daric Barton
Carlos Gonzalez
Fautino De Los Santos
Brett Anderson
Gio Gonzalez
Trevor Cahill
Chris Carter
James Simmons
Aaron Cunningham
Henry Rodriguez
Andrew Bailey
So while this deal leaves Oakland with an OF of Emil Brown, Chris Denorfia, and Travis Buck, if you are counting at home, six of their top 11 prospects are direct results of these two deals. And some people wonder if Billy Beane really is a genius or not…

1-17-2008: Signed RHP Huston Street to a one-year contract.
A must-do move for the A’s to lock up a 24-year-old closer for at least another year who was the 2005 ROY, and who has never had a WHIP higher than 1.09 or and ERA+ lower than 134. Avoiding arbitration was also another factor.

Seattle Mariners

12-12-2007: Acquired Minor League INF Tug Hulett from the Texas Rangers in exchange for 1B Ben Broussard and invited Hulett to Spring Training.
I documented some of this last year, but the Mariners must really be counting on a huge Richie Sexson rebound to get rid of Broussard and his capable bat. Sexson can’t get any worse or any more unlucky than he was in 2007 (.217 BABIP), but Mike Morse is now the only legitimate backup at first. For more than $15m, the M’s better hope Sexson can rebound.

12-20-2007: Signed RHP Carlos Silva to a four-year contract with a mutual option for 2012.
Not to the extreme of an Ervin Santana, but Carlos Silva has quite the home/road split for his entire career. His ERA, OPS allowed, BABIP line at home for five years is 3.76/.736/.292 while it jumps to 4.93/.849/.326 on the road.
A lot is made of what a great pitcher’s park Safeco field is in Seattle, and how it will help Silva. But in reality, Safeco and the Metrodome both ranked a 96 on multi-year park factor in 2007, so those two parks are equally advantageous to the pitcher. What Silva has to do is keep his incredible walk rate where it has been the past few years, when he was in the top 5 in the AL from 2004 to 2007, including leading the AL with a .43 BB/9 ratio in 2005.

*And as of now, the Mariners are also actively trying to trade for Baltimore’s Erik Bedard. More on that if it happens.

Texas Rangers

12-12-2007: Signed OF Milton Bradley to a one-year contract; Acquired 1B Ben Broussard from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Minor League INF Tug Hulett
Say hello to the new RF and 1B for the Texas Rangers. With no Mark Teixeira or (insert name of any Rangers’ many ‘07 RF), someone had to be found to man those positions. We have talked in the Mariners section and in a previous post about Broussard’s capabilities last season, but we will have to wait and see if he can stay productive over 550 PA or more.

And on Milton Bradley. First of all, the bad things:
He has played in more than 101 games once in his career
He has played for five teams in seven seasons
He can disrupt a clubhouse better than anyone
He is a bad guy - and I just don’t like him.

And now the good things:
Posted an OPS+ over 100 each of the last five seasons (when he played)
He does take walks and get on base (lowest OBP over the past five years was .350 in 2005, corresponding to the year when he had his highest batting average)
At least he is playing for another contract, whether with the Rangers or someone else

12-21-2007: Acquired OF Josh Hamilton from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RHP Edinson Volquez and Minor League LHP Danny Herrera.
And the Rangers new CF is the infamous Josh Hamilton, he of so many drug and addiction problems, but with so much talent the Reds took a shot on him last year and Texas does the same this year. Finally sober and cleaned up, Hamilton, as a rookie, had 56 RC in limited playing time due to injury. That’s roughly the same number Luke Scott, Moises Alou, and Matt Diaz produced in 2007. Hamilton’s line was also .292/.368/.554 - good numbers for anyone, much less a rookie.
Hamilton is 27 now, but has been given the starting job in Texas, so watch what he does this season assuming he doesn’t have the recurrence of injury problems that he had last year. This is just an all-around good story for a former #1 draft pick who everyone gave up on. And to think, when he was drafted, the debate was whether he or Josh Beckett would turn out better. Hamilton certainly has a ways to go…

1-11-2008: Signed LHP Eddie Guardado to a one-year contract
No more Gagne and no more Otsuka means the Rangers needed to find someone for the closer’s role. For a two year stretch, Guardado was THE MAN. Unfortunately, those two years came in 2002-2003, not in 2006-07. In his two best years, Guardado had 86 combined saves and an ERA+ of 155. But in the last two years with Seattle and Cincinnati, Guardado saved 13 games, has an ERA+ under 100, while being hit with multiple injuries. His 2007 ERA was 7.24 with an equally awful WHIP of 1.463.
Now 37, Easy Eddie will compete with C.J. Wilson for the closer’s role on the Texas staff. Wilson has better peripherals all around, especially against left handers, but he might relegated to the left-handed specialist role if Guaradado proves he still has any gas in the tank.

1-17-2008: Signed RHP Jason Jennings to a one-year contract
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU200707290.shtml
I’m just warning you, Rangers fans…

We will come back and start the National League side of things next week.

We continue now with part two of six in our looking and evaluating transactions since the end of the World Series in October; helping you, the rabid baseball fan keep track of it all. One major trade in this division in on the verge of being completed, so we will dissect that one when we get to that team.

On to the AL East:

Baltimore Orioles

10-23-2007: Activated LHP Erik Bedard, RHP Kris Benson, OF Jay Gibbons, LHP Adam Loewen and RHP Chris Ray from the 60-day disabled list.
This note is important only because Bedard and Ray are both coming off injuries, Ray’s being Tommy John surgery so he will probably miss most, if not all, of the 2008 season. I guess you could classify Ray as a middle of the road closer, a bit below average. The strange thing is, Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker both had much better numbers in the ERA+ department. Is this a situation of addition by subtraction? Ray had four blown saves and two other losses in half the season last year.
Bedard, on the other hand, should be completely ready for spring training, but who knows if that spring training will be with the Orioles. Despite missing more than a month at the end of the season, Bedard was fourth in MLB in strikeouts and 13th in VORP. At only 29, and presuming he is healthy with that dominating curve, Bedard should be in line for another fabulous year. Bill James projects him at an ERA of 3.69 and 207 Ks.

12-12-2007: Acquired LHP Troy Patton, OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, RHP Dennis Sarfate and nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo from the Astros for SS Miguel Tejada.
According to this Baseball Prospectus article of how AL deals have affected the lists of top prospects in each system, the Orioles all of a sudden added the fifth ranked prospect and 11th ranked prospect in their minor leagues with Troy Patton and Mike Costanzo. That is a lot to get in a deal, but they are giving up one of the top slugging shortstops around (more on the Astros side when we look at NL). Add Matt Albers, a potential #3 starter as well, and it looks like the Orioles made out on top with this deal. Luke Scott looks like he may be another Jay Gibbons and he was not part of the Astros’ plans with Hunter Pence moving to right, so he will fight for playing time with the Orioles.

Boston Red Sox

11-2-2007: Red Sox exercised the 2008 contract options on RHP Julian Tavarez and RHP Tim Wakefield
The Red Sox will keep exercising their year-to-year option on Tim Wakefield until his arm falls off or until he dies. I am convinced of this.

11-6-2007: Signed RHP Curt Schilling to a one-year contract
Some didn’t think Schilling would come back one more year. Some didn’t think the Red Sox would sign him to another deal. But facts are facts; Schilling still accumulated 16.22 Batting Runs Above Average and had an ERA of 3.87 as a 41-year-old. And in case you forgot - he was 3-0 in the 2007 postseason.

11-20-2007: Re-signed 3B Mike Lowell to a three-year contract
Let’s look at some facts. Mike Lowell will be 34 when the season starts and when this new contract begins. Mike Lowell had an average of .320 last year with 120 RBI. Mike Lowell has never been within 15 points of either of these numbers for any season in his career. Last year, Mike Lowell had an OPS of .879. Mike Lowell’s park-adjusted OPS (taking him out of Fenway and putting him in a neutral offensive park) was .781. In 2007, Mike Lowell had a BABIP of .342, in the top 20 in the AL. In 2007, the four guys who usually hit in front of Mike Lowell all had BABIPs in the top 25 in the AL (Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, Ramirez). Last year, Mike Lowell was lucky.
That being said, I can’t really blame the rich Red Sox for re-signing Lowell. His swing seems to be tailor-made for Fenway. Many of those doubles off the wall last year are probably fly outs in the Marlin’s stadium in Miami. So I don’t doubt he can be great again at least for one more year in Boston. But just for fun some day, look at his home/road splits in ‘07. It’s pretty ridiculous.

12-1-2007: Offered arbitration to RHP Eric Gagne and RHP Mike Timlin and declined to offer arbitration to RHP Matt Clement, C Doug Mirabelli, INF Royce Clayton, INF Eric Hinske and OF Bobby Kielty.
Gagne is gone so Timlin is the only one of this bunch that is back from the 2007 champs. I know I am just nitpicking now for a very complete team, but they better find some bench players besides Alex Cora.

New York Yankees

11-29-2007: Re-signed free agent C Jorge Posada to a four-year contract.
Let’s continue our lesson on BABIP, shall we? Jorge Posada makes Mike Lowell look like your average player when you consider BABIP. Posada’s number of .389 in that category was fourth in the majors, and he has only had one year where he was within 30 points of that number! Two other numbers stick out from Posada’s 2007 as well; his average of .338 and 171 hits. He has never had numbers even close to those two in his career.
And all of this for a catcher who will be 36 this year. Four years for a catcher who was lucky this year? This signing I don’t particularly like.

12-1-2007: Declined to offer arbitration to RHP Roger Clemens, C Jose Molina and LHP Ron Villone.
I bet the Yankees are thanking their lucky stars right now Clemens decided not to come back.

12-12-2007: Signed LHP Andy Pettitte to a one-year contract.
Nothing wrong or particularly shocking about this deal. I just imagine that the Yankees were not counting on Pettitte admitting two weeks later that he did, in fact, use steroids in years past. Now they have to carry around that baggage and Andy will have it weighing on his mind all year.

12-13-2007: Signed 3B Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year contract.
…worth $275 million, that is.
Listen, we all know who A-Rod is, what he can do, what he can’t do in the playoffs, and that he will probably break Bonds’ HR record one day. So let’s not focus on what he has done, but what he is projected to do, at least for this next year, when he will turn 32.
Right now, I have access to four prominent projection systems for 2008. I do not subscribe yet to Baseball HQ and the PECOTA projections have not been released as of January 14. But the four I can see (Bill James, Marcels, CHONE, and ZiPS) have A-Rod broken down this way in 2008:

The average for those numbers in 2008 is .300/.405/.574, 42, 129, 17. Of course, A-Rod will probably not play until the end of this contract, unless there is some great record he is trying to break. He will theoretically have broken the HR record long before that time, and unless he is going for 4,000 hits, I don’t see any reason why he would keep playing past 40 or so. That being my opinion, I don’t know that this is such a bad deal for the Yankees, who can obviously afford it. $61 million is due on the last three years of the contract (the three that would most likely not be in effect), and no portion of the signing bonus is due after the 7th year either.
Also in the contract are clauses where bonuses kick in should be break certain milestones (i.e. Mays’ HR numbers, Ruth’s, Aaron’s , Bonds’, etc). And these milestones always bring in revenue from attendace, merchandise, TV, etc. They just better pray that they never want to trade him, because the deal has a full no trade clause and no one on earth could take on that contract as it stands now.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

11-14-2007: Activated OF Rocco Baldelli from the 60-day disabled list.
Don’t worry, he will be back on by the time the season starts.

11-30-2007: Signed RHP Troy Pervcival to a two-year contract.
Percival had not pitched in more than a year and a half when St. Louis grabbed him up last year. All Percival did was go 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 8.10 K/9.
Percival now becomes the closer for the Rays, and he will try to add to his 324 career saves, almost all of which were earned with the Angels from 1995-2004. Percival will turn 39 this year - but has almost two years less wear on his arm than other pitchers his age. In those 34 games last year, Percival did have the lowest LD% of his career and the highest GB% of his career. Use these numbers to temper your expectations when looking at what Percival can do with the Rays.

12-14-2007: Signed free agent OF Cliff Floyd to a one year deal with a club option for 2009.
Long gone is the .300/25/90 outfielder from so many years ago with the Marlins and Mets. Floyd has played in more than 113 games once since 2002 - and his best years seem to be fading away in the rearview mirror. This move was surely made to solidify the bench in case Baldelli or Jonny Gomes do not work out in RF.

1-11-2008: Invited 3B Evan Longoria (and others) to Spring Training.
No, not that Longoria. Considered one of the top bats in the minor leagues, Evan will have a shot to win the Rays’ 3B job this spring. Over two stops in the 2007 season, Longoria posted a .299/.402/.520 line with 26 HR and 95 RBI in 136 games.

Toronto Blue Jays

12-14-2007: Signed SS David Eckstein to a one year contract.
Got a one year deal because the Jays are wise enough to realize this is a player in steep decline. Offensively and defensively.
On defense, Eckstein rated .816, .844, and .841 from 2004-2006 in Revised Zone Rating. In 2007, he rated .783, fifth worst in the majors.
On offense, Eckstein’s Runs Created numbers and rank in the National League from 2005 to 2007 look like this:
2005: 106 Runs Created - 1st in NL
2006: 61 Runs Created - 8th in NL
2007: 58 Runs Created - 14th in NL
Unfortunately for Eckstein, he is a dying breed. Teams wants a SS who is a marginally good defensive player but who can produce tons of runs on offense. Eckstein is not either of those, so he will fight for the SS job on a mediocre team when he was once the sparkplug for two World Series winners.

1-14-2008: Acquired 3B Scott Rolen from St. Louis for 3B Troy Glaus.
How about we swap our perpetually hurt third baseman for your perpetually hurt third baseman? Rolen has missed at least 20 games for four straight years while Glaus has missed at least 45 games in three of the past five years. Will Carroll analyzes this trade very well in this article on BP, and says the most significant factor in this trade might be Glaus coming back to playing on grass instead of artificial turf, something that always contributed to his ankle and foot problems.
Except for Rolen’s fantastic 2004, Glaus has been the better slugger when both are healthy, but Rolen has soundly beaten Glaus in all defensive metrics, so you decide which you prefer. When it comes down to it, Carroll may be right; this trade might benefit both teams because it offers the players a chance to change something that they have needed for a while: Glaus’ injuries caused by playing on turf and Rolen’s continued feud with manager Tony La Russa.
Both teams hope a change of scenery leads to a change in the luck department when it comes to injury.

So there’s the AL East in a nutshell. We finish out the AL with the AL West in a few days.

Since a week after the 2007 World Series ended, we have seen a fury of player movements. Drops, deals, signings, and salary negotiations have been rampant the past three months. As a matter of fact, in my quick glance at everything, it looks like the Red Sox and Dodgers are the only teams that have not made a trade since the season ended. So how do you keep track of it all, and what does it all mean for next year? Well, that’s why I am here…

In what will be a six-part piece, I will go through each division and touch on the major (and some minor) moves each team has made since October and try to provide a little bit of analysis as to what it does for each team going forward and looking at 2008.

In the last post, I discussed specific projection systems that you can now find online or in print. So I won’t get into a lot of making predictions about how players or teams will perform, but rather try to look at the impact each move will have on the upcoming season whether positively or negatively. Some of it will be from a sabermetric perspective, while some of it will just be one man’s opinion, and everything else in-between.

So let’s going alphabetically, beginning with the AL Central.

Chicago White Sox

11-7-2007: Agreed to terms on a one-year contract with Juan Uribe
This signing became irrelevant when the White Sox made their next move. Uribe will come off the bench in 2008.

11-19-2007: Acquired SS Orlando Cabrera and cash from the Angels for RHP Jon Garland
Remember all of the White Sox who had outstanding years in 2006? Jermaine Dye, AJ Pierzsynski, Paul Konerko, and Joe Crede? Well, all of them regressed back to the mean last year and the White Sox suffered because of it. Trying to pack some more punch into the lineup, the Sox added a shortstop who was 5th amongst AL shortstops in ‘07 for VORP and 4th in RC. The White Sox rotation is now left with a hole that will more than likely be filled by Gavin Floyd, who started 10 games last year, who had a VORP of 2.4, which is actually higher than their number four probable, John Danks. But Floyd also had an ERA+ of only 90.

11-20-2007: Designated OF Scott Podsednik for assignment
Finally! Sure, Podsednik could single-handedly win you a steals title in Rotisserie when he was was healthy four years ago, but he has been a sieve on the offense for more than two years (OBPs of .330 and .299).

11-28-2007: Signed RHP Scott Linebrink to a four-year deal
Linebrink goes to a bullpen that already has Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton as options, so Chicago hopes Linebrink will give them a solid 7-8-9 inning rotation a la Qualls-Wheeler-Lidge that worked so well for Houston for one year. At age 30, though, the only question is are they getting the Linebrink of 2004-05 (ERA+’s of 181 and 210) or 2006-07 (113 both years), when he was more average. Follow this closely, especially in the final two years of the deal.

12-3-2007: Acquired OF Carlos Quentin from Diamondbacks for a minor leaguer
Only interesting because this follows the same pattern as the Uribe signing. Picking up a player and then acquiring a better player at the same position. Quentin will also be on the bench after a promising start in ‘06 and then a miserable ‘07. He plays the same position as…

1-3-2008: Acquired OF Nick Swisher from Athletics for Gio Gonzalez, Fautino de los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney
Swisher has to come to Chicago to play left field because he is not supplanting Konerko at first, Thome at DH, or Dye in RF. The former darling of Billy Beane has drawn walks like a madman the past two years, but he lost 40 points in SLG last year and he strikes out a ton. Still, his VORP was over 31 last year and he should fit quite nicely in a lineup with Thome, Konerko, Dye, and Cabrera.

Cleveland Indians

11-20-07: Signed RHP Masahide Kobayashi to a two year contract with club option for 2010
Gotta be honest, I don’t know much about this guy. He did lead the Pacific League in saves in 2005 and became the only player in that league’s history to record seven straight 20-save seasons. With Borowski manning the 9th innings, you can’t ever have enough help, I guess. They didn’t need to really touch the offense anyway.

Detroit Tigers

10-29-2007: Acquired SS Edgar Renteria from the Braves for RHP Jair Jurrjens and OF Gorkys Hernandez
When the decision was made to move Carlos Guillen to first to better protect his health, a quality SS had to be found, because Neifi Perez was not going to cut it (and yes, he is still on their roster). Renteria was actually quite amazing last year despite missing more than 30 games due to injury. His .332/.390/.470 line in ‘07 was one of the best for NL SS, and he was 5th in the NL for SS in RC despite the time he missed. Sadly, though, he was only the fourth best SS in his own division. The scary thing is, if Renteria doesn’t bat 2nd in the lineup, he will probably bat 7th. More on that later.

11-12-2007: Acquired OF Jacque Jones from Cubs for INF Omar Infante
Jones will be the likely starter in LF for the Tigers on opening day. Wouldn’t it be great if all of our favorite teams had a player like Jones batting 9th in the lineup? Man, the Tigers lineup is stacked next year.

11-30-2007: Signed LHP Kenny Rogers to one-year contract, designated 1B Chris Shelton for assignment
Remember when Shelton had something like nine homeruns in the first 13 days of the 2006 season and had an OPS that was close to 2? Yeah, he really is nothing like that player at all. Good luck with the Rangers, Chris.

12-5-2007: Acquired LHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins for RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP Dallas Trahern, LHP Andrew Miller, C Mike Rabelo and OF Cameron Maybin
By far the biggest trade so far this offseason. The Tigers gave up a whole lot, but also get a bundle back in return, especially in Cabrera, perhaps the best under-25 bat in the majors. Let me put it this way: take any overall cumulative, encompassing offensive stat you want - VORP, RC, OPS, WPA, EqA, BRAA, whatever - Cabrera was top 12 amongst all major leaguers in all of them. And he will only turn 25 next year.
Willis has unfortunately been heading in the opposite direction lately since his fabulous rookie campaign in 2003 and second place Cy Young finish in 2005. In the past three years, his strikeouts have dropped from 170 to 146 while his WHIP has risen from 1.134 to 1.597 in the same timeframe. His BABIP the past three years has risen from .289 to .329 so he has been a bit unlucky lately, and his move to an even larger ballpark won’t hurt - although the potent AL lineups might.
More will be said about the Marlins side when we get to that point, but the Tigers did have to give up Baseball America’s 6th best prospect for the 2007 season. And four of the five guys who were ahead of Cameron Maybin are now regulars in MLB. Maybin could be the Marlins’ CF for the next 12 years if they decide to pay him.

Kansas City Royals

12-6-2007: Signed OF Jose Guillen to a three-year contract
Is it just a coincidence that Guillen just signed a three-year contract and his maturity level is also that of a three year-old? But past personal and social problems aside, Guillen has put together some solid years in the past, including last year with a .290/.353/.460 line. Guillen will be 32 next season and PECOTA currently only projects him at EqA’s of .263, .255, and .258 over the next three years, but he may get a chance to drive in some runs in a lineup with Mark Teahen, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and John Buck.

1-3-2008: Signed Hideo Nomo to a minor league contract with spring training invitation
Is this guy still alive? Nomo last pitched at age 36 in 2005 when he started 19 games for Tampa Bay and posted an ERA of 7.24 and ERA+ of 60.

Minnesota Twins

10-11-2007: Activated LHP Francisco Liriano from the 60-day disabled list.
Who knows if he will actually pitch and be effective coming off Tommy John surgery and a layoff of over a year, but this now 24-year old pitcher blew everyone away in 2006, going 12-3 with an ERA of 2.16 and an ERA+ of 207!!! That really starts to mean something when you consider 100 is average. No decision has been made as to when he will start throwing or where he will even begin the 2008 season, but the Twins now desperately need Liriano in the rotation when Santana leaves. They will be left with guys named Bonser, Baker and Slowey - and that’s it.

11-13-2007: Acquired Craig Monroe from the Cubs for a player to be named.
I think I was next on the Twins’ depth chart to play CF after Torii Hunter left, so they had to sign someone to play the position, even an OF with a -2.4 VORP and .204/.291/.347 for the Cubs in 2007 (VORP with the Tigers was -15.7).

11-28-2007: Traded RHP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett and RHP Eduardo Morlan to TB for OK Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie.
After the club got rid of Lew Ford and Jason Tyner, there were no viable LF available on the roster, so the Twins take a chance on a very talented, but volatile player. Young actually played in every game in 2007 and posted 13 HR and 93 RBI. Bill James predicts better numbers across the board for Young, projecting a .301 Avg, 15 HR, 89 RBI, and 15 SB.

12-13-2007: Signed SS Adam Everett to a one year contract.
and
12-14-2007: Signed 3B Mike Lamb to a two year contract with club option for 2010.
The Astros’ left side of the infield for much of 2007 moves over to Minnesota after the overhaul in Houston. Both are expected to win starting jobs and both will be asked to do what they have become known for - Lamb to be a competent left-handed bat in the middle of the order and Everett to continue to be the best defensive SS in the majors. Everett will be 31 this season, so a slowdown may be coming in the next couple of years, but as long as they don’t count on him for his bat, you know what you are getting. Lamb’s line in 42 career PAs in the Metrodome is only .243/.317/.348, but that is hardly a big enough sample size from which to draw any conclusions.

All of these moves and the biggest one for the AL Central may not have even happened yet. When Johan Santana is traded, we will go back and look at the shockwaves that the deal causes across MLB and specifically for the Twins.

AL East will be up in a few days.

It is often said that if there was a wing for coaches in the Baseball Hall of Fame, there would be one man and one man only in it. Better yet, the wing would probably be named for him.

Leo Mazzone, currently pitching coach with the Orioles, is considered a miracle worker amongst baseball insiders and outsiders. His latest perceived water to wine project is often considered to be phenom, 28-year-old pitcher Erik Bedard. Bedard is 12-4 through August 20 and leads all of MLB with 207 strikeouts, already 36 more than he had in all of 2006. In my last post, a comment was made by a reader that Bedard, while playing for a perennial loser, should absolutely be considered for the Cy Young. And why not? Where would the Orioles be without Bedard? Overall, a 57-65 Orioles team is 18-8 when he starts, brining to mind memories of the mid-70’s Philadelphia Phillies when Steve Carlton would win 25 of the Phillies’ 70 total victories for the year, or something like that.

So an interesting question arises when you start to talk about these two: Bedard and Mazzone. They both arrived in Baltimore about the same time; Bedard as a 25-year-old rookie, and Mazzone as a 20-year veteran pitching coach of fourteen straight division-winning Atlanta Braves teams. They both have been credited with the success of the other; Mazzone training and tutoring Bedard, and Bedard being a young, talented pitcher that Mazzone could use as an example for his Daniel Cabreras and Jeremy Guthries. And the question that I go back and forth on is, if I was running a team, which one would I want? Bedard or Mazzone. Or, more clearly, who is responsible for the success, Bedard or Mazzone?

First, a look at Bedard’s progress over the past four seasons is needed to evaluate the change we are talking about. Below you will find a relevant season-by-season look at Bedard’s most important stats:

Also, Bedard’s RA (or Run Average, adding in unearned as well as earned runs) for the past four years starting in ‘04 reads like this: 5.44, 4.19, 4.22, and 3.09.

What may be best to do is to break these stats up into categories by whether a pitcher can control them or not. Whether a pitcher has to rely on others for the final product of the stat or if it is a result of his own doing. In tracking this, we will be able to narrow down the specific items that would be a result of Bedard’s pitching, and not the Orioles’ team play.

Items Bedard can control:
WHIP
Strikeouts
K/9
BB/9
K/BB
HR/9

Items Bedard can not control:
Starts
Record
ERA+
RA
BABIP
PRAA

It is very evident and important that we see positive trending in every one of these statistics except for HR/9. Bedard’s success has not been limited to one side or the other, but has been due to a number of factors that he can control (such as pitch count, pitch location, allowing men to be put on base) and a number of factors that he can’t (defense behind him, how many runs the offense scores, what the park factors are where he is pitching).

Now, where does Mazzone fit into all of this? Before the season started and Bedard’s tremendous success began, Leo was quoted in this article as saying,

“Great pitchers make for a great pitching coach, and a great pitching coach doesn’t mess up great pitchers.”

And when asked about pitchers’ confidence and their insecurities and how to react to those situations, he offers,

“You can’t teach it. You can’t put it on paper. You can’t do it with a radar gun. You have to read people because the game is always going to be played by human beings, and you can never take the human element out of the game.”

Now all that is well and good when you want to talk about Erik Bedard, who has become one of the premier pitchers in all of baseball. He obviously has the stuff, he just needs the confidence. But what about when you want to talk about the other side; someone who has struggled for three years with their success on the mound; someone like Daniel Cabrera.

I couldn’t have been more shocked when I found this obscure quote on CBSSportsline from Mazzone talking about Daniel Cabrera during spring training 2007,

“Daniel’s mechanics are the way you want them right now. You don’t have to tinker with him anymore. It’s a matter of him trusting himself a little more. It comes with experience and maturity.”

Huh? His mechanics are the way you want them? You don’t have to tinker with him? This is coming off a 2006 season where his 6.1 BB/9 would have been more than 2 walks higher than anyone else in that category if Cabrera had qualified with enough innings. His ERA+ of 94 would have put him in the bottom 10 in that category amongst qualified starters, and his WHIP of 1.58 would have only been better than Mark Redman and Joel Piniero.

But you don’t need to tinker with him?

Looking at these two case studies, it becomes obvious what Mazzone’s philosophy is. Mazzone can’t make the slider bend or the sinker drop or the fastball cut, he can’t magically make pitchers start hitting corners and he can’t decrease or increase the velocity of a pitch as it leaves a pitcher’s hand. Those are all mechanics that have been ingrained in a pitcher’s mind for probably 10 years before he reaches Mazzone. And while Mazzone can try to tweak something here and there, he realizes he is paid for a completely different, ostensibly more important reason.

To be a psychiatrist.

Long before a pitcher reaches the majors, it was the scout’s and general manager’s job to notice mechanics, how a pitcher has developed, whether or not they are moldable, whether they have plus pitches or not. But scouts and GMs are not developing players, much less their minds. That is where Mazzone steps in. He realizes the importance and validity of confidence, security, maturity, belief in a pitcher’s stuff, and belief in the guys playing behind him.

Is it a coincidence that the 1990 Braves had the worst team ERA in all of baseball at 4.58, but when Leo Mazzone took over in 1991, it immediately shot up to 3rd in the NL at 3.49? Is it a coincidence that Steve Avery, John Smotz, and Tom Glavine’s ERA all dropped in the season that Mazzone arrived? The Braves’ team ERA had nothing to do with the team’s improved offense in 1991. The dramatic shift in win/loss record can be attributed to both hitting AND pitching.

Admittedly, this is a hard thing conclusion for me to come to, because Mazzone’s impact on the pitchers can not be quantified, it can not be calculated, and it can not be measured. I truthfully wanted numbers to show that the pitchers like Bedard or even Cabrera* (not to mention Avery, Smoltz, Glavine, Russ Ortiz, Kevin Milwood, Jaret Wright, etc.) are doing it on their own or there was no correlation to Mazzone being a part of the team. But in a famous study done by J.C. Bradbury, the numbers are quite conclusive.

Bradbury found that pitchers under Mazzone have an ERA of roughly 0.63 lower than when they have not pitched for him (as of 2005). He equates that to the effect Coors Field generally has on a pitcher who now makes that his home, except in the opposite direction. And he advocates the Rockies hiring Mazzone to make up that difference pitchers often see when they pitch in Colorado.

There is a real life example of this when you consider Mike Hampton with the Braves before his string of injuries. Hampton in Colorado has ERAs of 5.41 and 6.15. His first two years in Atlanta under Mazzone: 3.84 and 4.28. Both of these cover the Bradbury spread of 0.63 runs from leaving Coors and 0.63 runs for having Mazzone as a tutor.

So getting back to Bedard and Mazzone, if I am picking sides, I have to take Mazzone. His effect on a cumulative pitching staff (we haven’t talked at all about relievers) is quite clearly worth more than what a dominant starter can give you every five days for seven or eight innings.

Whatever it is that he is doing, it’s working. Whether it’s confidence, maturity, or reliance, Mazzone has his pitchers convinced. And his success is the result of work far different than mechanics and proper pitching motion and velocity. His own words describe it best:

“I’ve got a degree in psychology and never went to college.”

____________

*Cabrera’s 9.1 K/9 last season would have ranked second in the AL behind Johan Santana. He is also in the top 20 this year for K/9.

From Yahoo! Sports:

Aug 7 Jim Street, of MLB.com, reports Seattle Mariners 1B Richie Sexson has been benched indefinitely by Mariners manager John McLaren. He has been replaced in the lineup by Ben Broussard.

Well, what do you know? It’s probably about time, don’t you think? In the midst of one of the worst seasons by a full-time player in recent memory, Richie Sexson is finally being benched in favor of Ben Broussard and others to fill in for the first baseman. While morons like me, the media, fantasy experts, et al have been waiting for Sexson’s “annual” second-half surge for some time now, many people, such as the good folks at USS Mariner, have been calling for this change for quite a while.

For a player who has a career .264 average and has had seasons of 45, 45, 39, 34, and 31 homeruns and 125, 124, 121, and 116 RBI and SLG% of .592, .578, .559, and .547, this 2007 campaign has been a complete disaster. With a line of .199/.298/.390 for the year, Sexson has been a complete bust since day one - and by far the worst every day first baseman in the game. Personally, I feel as though his struggles should be more magnified because the Mariners are right in the middle of a Wild Card chase, presently one game behind Detroit.

So that is what I want to look at today. What would the impact have been on the Mariners if Broussard had been the first sacker from day one? Would the Mariners be in better shape? Would they be in the Wild Card lead? How big would their lead be?

First let’s look at some numbers for our test subject. Where applicable, I have listed how poorly the numbers rank amongst his peers, whether first basemen or all of baseball. All numbers are as of August 7, 2007:

This is ugliness on a screen, my friends. Look at all of those categories where he ranks last at his position - and how unfavorable he compares to other major leaguers as well. In almost every rate stat that means anything, Sexson is dead last at his position and in the bottom 15% of the majors.

So what are the Mariners to do? Well we often talk about the replacement level in this space, so, using the same stats, let’s take a look at Sexson’s primary replacement, Ben Broussard, and his numbers on the season. Again, as of August 7:

Kind of funny that the replacement player’s stats are all better than the starter. With these stats, we can start to play a little game of “what if,” and see what might be different if the Mariners had played Broussard instead of Sexson this year.

Let’s assume these 564 plate appearances represent the sum total of the Mariners’ first basemen this year. I am sure we add a few here and there doing that, but we should make that up in games where neither Sexson or Broussard played, or played sparingly. So, if we gave every one of those plate appearances to Broussard, assuming his current pace, we come up with the following numbers:

**To find out VORP over 564 PA, I took Broussard’s VORPr (VORP rate per game calculated by Baseball Prospectus), assumed four plate appearances per game (564/4= 141) and multiplied the two together to get 31.4.

For some comparison, 21 HR would put him just behind Paul Konerko in the HR race, a VORP of 31.4 ties him with Kevin Youkilis, 82.9 RC has him relatively equal to Derrek Lee, and an EqA of .279 puts him just off the pace of Kevin Millar and Lance Berkman. (For clarity’s sake, no one in MLB has reached more than 539 PAs for the season so far, but you get the point on the comparison. If you want, compare Broussard’s extrapolated numbers to other first basemen in about two weeks.)

But what I really want to look at is Runs Created and the difference between the two and how that has contributed to wins and losses. We can see from the chart above that Broussard’s RC totals 82.9 over 564 PAs. If we give Sexson 564 PAs, using the same math, his RC totals 58.6 or 24.3 runs less than Broussard over the same number of plate appearances.

If you are like many out there and understand the theory that 10 runs either way adds up to a win or a loss, the Mariners have essentially thrown 1.7 wins out the window by playing Sexson. I come up with 1.7 because, in reality, the Mariners have about 65 RC from the position when you add Broussard’s 23.8 and Sexson’s 41.8. Broussard at all 564 PAs and 83 RC would have given them the 1.7 win extra.

So watch the Mariners down the stretch and the races they are in. If they win or lose by one or two games in the WC or division races, look back to see how much Sexson plays these last two months. Hopefully, McLaren sticks to his plan and keeps Sexson on the pine. It really is their best chance.

Oh yeah, and I almost forgot the most telling numbers that I found in this research:

Richie Sexson 2007 salary: $15,500,500
Ben Broussard 2007 salary: $3,500,000

I was doing a bit of reading and research on Homerun Translations for something I want to write in the near future, and I came across something talking about Lou Gehrig’s 1927 monster season where he won the unofficial MVP award and finished with a .373 average, 47 HR, 175 RBI, 52 doubles, 18 triples, a 1.239 OPS, and 447 total bases (the third highest TB total of all-time).

Still, despite how incredible that season was, and how much he was recognized for it then and now, he still was not believed to have had the best season on his own team. Babe Ruth was basically deified for his 1927 season where he batted .356, had 60 HR, and 164 RBI. If you read Leigh Montville’s book, The Big Bam, you will understand the story about how 60 became the one number people all over baseball cared about. The whole nation followed Ruth’s chase to break his own 59-homer record. And all the while, Ruth overshadowed his first base teammate who actually had the better season.

So as Maris reached 61, McGwire reached 70, and Bonds reached 73, 1927 was the year everyone turned to for relflection. But it never was for Gehrig’s accomplishments, but rather for Ruth’s 60 bombs.

And while Gehrig’s 1927 season received and still does receive plenty of acknowledgment, I thought it would be fun to take the overshadowed or forgotten idea a but further and find ten of the most forgotten or overlooked offensive seasons in baseball history.

I tried to set a few criteria along the way. First, I tried to eliminate anyone who won an MVP award for the season of note. Anyone can go back and look at a list of MVPs and find a player’s name. I am more concerned with those who are lost in the record books or who might be the more obscure names. Second, you have to compare the numbers to their context or their place in history. A player who hits 52 homeruns in 1922 would get extra consideration over someone who hit 52 in 2002.

Here are ten I feel are severely overlooked, ranked from the earliest to the most recent:

Chuck Klein, 1930 Philadelphia Phillies

Klein’s numbers from the ‘30 season look like this: .386 AVG, 40 HR, 170 RBI, 250 hits, 59 doubles, 158 runs scored, a .436 OBP, and .687 SLG. The 1930 season was the odd year where the NL and AL did away with their “best player” award given out by the sportswriters; it wasn’t until 1931 that the MVP as we know it was instituted. Because there was no such award, Klein’s numbers that year remain in relative obscurity.

His 445 total bases are fourth all-time for a single season. His 170 RBI are tied for eighth best all-time, but they are overlooked because he tallied them in the same season that Hack Wilson had 191 RBI and Lou Gehrig had 175.

Hal Trosky, 1936 Cleveland Indians

Playing for an Indians team that only finished 5th in the American League, first baseman Trosky was struggling for popularity in a league with the likes of Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Hank Greenberg. His final line for the year was: .343 AVG, 42 HR, 162 RBI, 45 doubles, 405 total bases, .382 OBP, and .644 SLG.

Normally, you would think of a season like that as worthy of an MVP, it certainly would be close in 2007. But in 1936, Trosky finished 10th in the voting whereas perhaps two of the top nine (Gehrig and Luke Appling) deserved to actually beat him in the AL vote.

Ralph Kiner, 1949 Pittsburgh Pirates

Kiner played for a ‘49 Pirates team that finished 26 games behind first place Brooklyn that year - a year where Brooklyn and St. Louis battled neck and neck for the pennant, and was eventually won by Brooklyn by one game. Kiner was the only player in the top six of MVP voting for 1949 that was not a Brooklyn or St. Louis player. But his numbers speak for themselves: .310 AVG, 54 HR, 127 RBI, a .432 OBP, and a .658 SLG.

Kiner had a legitimate case for the MVP award that year, at least by the numbers. He finished the season first in HR, RBI, OPS, SLG, and BB; and was second in total bases. His 54 homeruns came in a year where no one else in the NL was within 18 homeruns of catching him, and the leader in the AL, Ted Williams, was 11 away.

Duke Snider, 1954 Brooklyn Dodgers

In Snider’s best year as a pro, he received only his third highest MVP voting finish of his career - fourth. He finished third in 1953 and second in 1955, but neither of those seasons looked like 1954 when Snider had totals of .341 AVG, 40 HR, 130 RBI, 39 doubles, 10 triples, 199 hits, .423 OBP, and .647 SLG.

Snider finished the year as the league-leader in total bases with 378, runs scored with 120, extra base hits with 89, and Runs Created with 160. Finishing ahead of the Dodgers outfielder were Willie Mays, Ted Kluszewski (another candidate for this list), and pitcher Johnny Antonelli. The similarities between Mays’ and Snider’s offensive numbers in ‘54 are downright eerie, but Mays, the more popular player on the much better team, won the award.

Norm Cash, 1961 Detroit Tigers

We all know what was going on in 1961, with Maris and Mantle battling all year to see if either would pass Ruth’s 60 homeruns. Maris would eventually hit number 61 on the last day of the season, and all of the press had their eyes focused on New York. Meanwhile, in Detroit, first baseman Norm Cash was putting up this line: .361 AVG, 41 HR, 132 RBI, 193 hits, 124 walks, .487 OBP, and .662 SLG. All of this only put Cash fourth in the MVP voting, behind Maris, Mantle and Diamond Jim Gentile.

Despite all of the fanfare for the two Yankees outfielders, Cash actually led the AL in AVG, OBP, OPS, hits, and Runs Created. Cash would never again have more than 39 HR or 93 RBI, but it all came together for him that summer in ‘61 - interesting to note, though, that 1962 was only his second full season in the majors.

Rod Carew, 1974 Minnesota Twins

Many people remember well Carew’s MVP year of 1977 when he hit .388 with 14 HR and his only 100-RBI season. But his next best season, 1974, was almost equally as impressive. Still, with numbers such as a .364 AVG, 218 hits, 38 SB, .433 OBP, .446 SLG, and 30 doubles, he was only able to muster a seventh place finish in MVP voting.

In a relatively down year for MVP candidates (Jeff Burroughs, Joe Rudi, and Sal Bando finished in the top three), it was hard to see how Carew did not finish higher than seventh. Power was down across the board that year - only four players in MLB hit more than 29 homeruns. So, voters were forced to look at other stats, but Carew was still overlooked. It is difficult to see why: besides power numbers, Burroughs statistics don’t even come close to comparing to Carew’s - but Carew didn’t even get one first place vote for MVP in ‘74. Minnesota was a middle of the pack team, overshadowed by powerhouses Baltimore, New York, Boston, and Oakland, and Carew would be forced to wait three more years for his MVP award.

Don Mattingly, 1986 New York Yankees

The 1985 MVP winner seemed unstoppable throughout the 1986 season as well. In fact, in every aspect of his game except RBI, his numbers were better across the board in 1986 than in his award-winning ‘85 season. Here is a comparison of the two:

So what happened? He didn’t repeat - why? Well, it took a skinny 23-year-old kid pitcher from Boston with a 24-4 record, a 2.48 ERA, and 238 strikeouts to beat out the phenomenal year from Donnie Baseball. That’s right, if not for Roger Clemens, Mattingly would have back-to-back MVPs. But we forget about Mattingly’s year because of the emergence of The Rocket. We forget that he was in the top three in all of these categories in ‘86: AVG, SLG, OPS, runs, hits, total bases, doubles, RBI, extra base hits, and Runs Created.

1996 Colorado Rockies (Galarraga, Castilla, Bichette, and Burks)

Why not throw a whole group of players from one team on the list? It’s my list, I can do that.

How can a team that scored 961 runs in a season finish just above .500 and eight games out of the playoffs? Well they would have to give up 964 runs to start. And there you have the 1996 Colorado Rockies - all bats and no pitching. The team ERA for the season was 5.60. The starter with the lowest ERA was Jamey Wright at 4.93. Their closer, Bruce Ruffin, had an ERA of 4.00! But we are celebrating forgotten offense here, so let’s take a look at the seasons produced by their four sluggers. Remember, this is all on one team in the same season:

If you remember, Ken Caminiti won the MVP in 1996, the year the Padres won over 90 games. Looking at this list, the shocking thing about this Rockies team is, not only did they mash, but they ran, too! Not on this this list is Eric Young with 53 SB and Larry Walker with 18. The team as a whole had 201 SB, first in the NL. A Colorado player led the NL in each of these categories in 1996: SLG, runs, total bases, homeruns, RBI, SB, Runs Created, and extra base hits.

Craig Biggio, 1997-1998 Houston Astros

The ‘97-’98 seasons for Biggio were some of the predominant reasons why, in his 2003 Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James named Biggio the 35th best player of all-time (p. 361). His line for 1997 includes: .309 AVG, .415 OBP, .501 SLG, 146 runs, 191 hits, 37 doubles, 22 HR, 81 RBI, 47 SB, and 310 total bases. To follow THAT up, all he did in 1998 was: .325 AVG, .403 OBP, .503 SLG, 123 runs, 210 hits, 51 doubles, 20 HR, 88 RBI, 50 SB, and 325 total bases. In 1997, he finished fourth in MVP voting (Larry Walker won), and in 1998 he finished fifth (Sammy Sosa won of course).

Despite his outstanding, consistent, Hall of Fame career, ‘97 and ‘98 were the only times in his career Biggio reached the following marks: 190 hits, 80 RBI, 40 SB, .500 SLG, and 300 total bases. He was overshadowed by the McGwire/Sosa theater of 1998 and the epic season Walker put together in 1997 - so guys with only 20 HR didn’t get much pub. Well, he’ll get it here.

Luis Gonzalez, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks

Can anybody else think of something that might have happened in 2001 to make people forget Gonzalez’s season that year? Oh yeah, Barry Lamar and 73 dingers. Regardless, in a championship year, Gonzalez put together one of the greatest offensive seasons of this decade. It looked like this: .325 AVG, .429 OBP, .688 SLG, 128 runs, 198 hits, 57 HR, 142 RBI, 100 BB and 419 total bases. Wow.

No one was beating Bonds for the MVP that year, and Gonzo also finished behind Sosa and his 64 HR. My feeling is that Gonzalez’s season would have won him the MVP in any other year of this decade - he just happened to have it in the wrong year. But he got a World Series-winning walk-off hit against the Yankees, so I doubt he is complaining too much.

So there you go, my list of ten. Are there any that you like better, or some that I have forgotten? Let me know in the comments.

Whenever I read analyses of players or blogs comparing stats from player A to player B to player C, it always seems to be about the same old boring superstars. Who’s better, Ortiz or Hafner? Who is the best first baseman in the NL, Pujols, Berkman, Howard, or Lee? Who is the better shortstop in New York, Reyes or Jeter?

Well I want to do something different that I have not seen before. After all, there are nine spots in a lineup and you have to go through each one as many times as they come up, no matter how bad the hitter may be. So, since we can’t really compare the number nine hitters across MLB (because half of them are pitchers), I want to do a study of all the number eight hitters on every team to see when you really get down to the worst of the best, who is the best….and worst…..or something like that.

Today, I will start with the AL and then move on to the NL in a couple of days. Then we will have some epic showdown comparisons between leagues like who is the best #8 hitter, who is the worst, and who constitutes the all-number-eight lineup if you had to make one.

So without further ado, here is the list of #8 hitters for all AL teams. For each team, I took the player who has the most at bats in the #8 spot for the year as of May 22:

Breaking it down by position, we have 4 OF, 4 C, 3 2B, and 2 SS. Interesting that there are no full-time third basemen or first basemen - not really sure why. Those are considered power positions, so I guess that explains a bit of it. But Doug Mientkiewicz and Chone Figgins bat ninth, so who knows?

Anyway, what is certainly intriguing is looking at the names on this list and trying to figure out why they bat so low in the order. Some teams like the Yankees, Tigers, and Boston have traditionally good hitters (Robinson Cano finished second in the batting race last year!) at eighth because their lineups are stacked with quality hitters, and this is just where they are forced to hit. Other teams like the Orioles, Indians, and A’s have put struggling hitters in the eighth spot; hitters who usually bat higher in the order, likely in hopes that they will turn things around from a less-pressure spot. And still others are just trying to hide the dregs of their lineup all the way at the bottom like the Blue Jays, Twins, and Devil Rays. The one I don’t understand is John Buck of the Royals, who has a .299/.398/.588 line for the year yet hits behind Alex Gordon (.186/.302/.283) every game.

But enough of that. On to the relevant stats for each player as of May 22 of this year:

In the stats I am using, I have included some telling counting stats such as HR for power, SB for speed, and Runs Created for overall offensive value; as well valuable rate stats like the common AVG/OBP/SLG and VORP. Runs Created becomes a bit skewed here because a player who is asked to hit eighth everyday will produce runs at a MUCH slower rate than your 1-4 hitters typically will.

RC/27 is interesting to look at here. This simply tells you how many runs each player would create over the course of one game, or 27 outs. So, a team of all John Bucks would score 8.3 runs per game this year (Cleveland, the highest scoring team in MLB, scores 5.5 per game), and a team of all Jason Kendalls would score 1.36 runs per game (Washington, the lowest, averages 3.41 runs per game). As an interesting sidenote, Kendall is on pace to break the all-time lowest slugging percentage for one season. Now there is an interesting record chase to watch if you are tired of all of the 755 stuff.

Also interesting to note is the fact that 10 of the 14 eight hitters have a negative VORP for the 2007 season thus far, meaning they really should be replaced by someone else who can start making a positive contribution, at least on offense. Two of the remaining four (Betancourt and Clayton) seem to be right on that border as well. Buck (highest VORP on his team) and Napoli (fifth on the Angels) are fine.

So why does KC bat Buck eighth the majority of the time? If you exclude third baseman Mark Teahen, who is identical to Buck in VORP, Buck’s VORP is higher than all other position players on his team combined (for the game of May 23). In fact, with Mark Teahen in the equation, the starting lineup’s cumulative VORP is 7.4; if you take Teahen out, it is a staggering -6.5. Fortunately, Buddy Bell has been batting Buck seventh lately, just ahead of Ryan Shealy and his -2.7 VORP and right behind Alex Gordon and his -6.5 VORP. Good luck with that, Royals. PLEASE start batting Buck 4th.

One more fact before I am done for the night. It does peak my curiosity that once you get past the enigma that is Buck batting eighth, if you rank the hitters by VORP, three of the next five eighth spot hitters are from the three best teams in the AL (the Angels, Tigers, and Red Sox). I won’t do any direct correlation here, and we will just suffice it to say that those lineups are pretty stacked and therefore have better overall hitters at number eight.

In the next day or so, we will examine the NL eight hitters and see if there is anyone remotely as good as John Buck, or as bad as Jason Kendall. Then,we will make our all-number-eight team and see how they would fare against the rest of the league.

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As I write this on May 23, John Buck has just gone 2 for 3 with a homerun, double, walk and two RBI…..from the eighth spot. I’m just sayin’.

Last September, some friends and I got into a discussion about who was having the better season, Travis Hafner or David Ortiz. This really started around Labor Day (the same time Hafner broke his hand on a HBP) and continued for the rest of the season despite the fact that Hafner did not play the final month.

On September 5, I put together a spreadsheet of very basic information that compared Hafner and Ortiz through that date comparing data such as counting stats like HR, RBI, BB, etc. as well as rate stats like AVG, OBP, SLG, and all of these with Runners On, Close and Late situations, etc. I will be happy to email this Excel spreadsheet to you if you are interested.

But a lot is said about Ortiz and this aura he has about being so clutch and “look at all the game-winning hits he has over the past few years” and all of that. Without getting into the conversation about how game winning hits are truthfully all a result of circumstance and luck (does your team plan for you to be up in the ninth inning down one run? if Ortiz is on deck with two outs in the eighth, do the Red Sox take an out so he can come up the next inning? if the Red Sox are down two, does their opponent allow them to put two men on for Ortiz so a homer wins it?), let’s look at some numbers.

We will not be able to compare counting stats for this excercise because Ortiz had 122 more plate appearances than Hafner. So we will have to stick with rate stats - which is fine. Each player has a large enough sample size that we can compare them fairly.

Admittedly, those situations do come up quite frequently where you have men on base and a chance to affect the game, whether in the first or ninth innings. Fortunately, there is an easy way to track them. There is a relatively obscure stat called OBI, or Others Batted In. Basically it is your RBI total minus how many HR you hit. Here are the top fifteen for 2006 (whole list found here):

Justin Morneau 96
Garrett Atkins 91
Lance Berkman 91
Ryan Howard 91
David Wright 90
Raul Ibanez 90
Ryan Zimmerman 90
Michael Young 89
Albert Pujols 88
Miguel Cabrera 88
Andruw Jones 88
Alex Rodriguez 86
Michael Cuddyer 85
David Ortiz 83
Derek Jeter 83

Travis Hafner is number 30 on the list with 75. But again, this is a counting stat, so we can’t really compare the two guys here. What we can do, however, is look at their OBI per plate appearance since we do have those numbers.**

David Ortiz: 686 Plate Appearances, 83 0OBI = 0.1711 OBI%
Travis Hafner: 564 Plate Appearances, 75 OBI = 0.1963 OBI%

So, Hafner drove in the men on base at a rate two and a half percent higher than Ortiz in 2006. Granted, this really doesn’t sound like a lot. But we really start to see a difference if we compare the OBI% to the rest of the league. Here are the top 15 in MLB for OBI% for batters with at least 400 PA:

Miguel Cabrera 0.2146
Brian McCann 0.2136
Lance Berkman 0.2136
Albert Pujols 0.2061
Justin Morneau 0.2047
Raul Ibanez 0.2036
Juan Rivera 0.2026
Michael Young 0.2023
Bobby Abreu 0.2021
Alex Rios 0.2012
Carlos Beltran 0.2011
Nomar Garciaparra 0.1973
Jose Reyes 0.1968
Travis Hafner 0.1963
Freddy Sanchez 0.1960

Hafner ends up 14th on this list. You need to scroll all the way down to number 51 to find Big Papi and his OBI%. Right above him are magnificent hitters such as Kenji Johjima and Marcus Giles.

Because the percentages of each players’ plate appearances that occured with men on base are so similar (Hafner at 50%, Ortiz at 51%), you can see how much more proficient Hafner was at driving in the runs he was given the opportunity to drive in.

If you’re so concerned with homerun totals, consider this: given the same number of plate appearances as Ortiz, Hafner’s home run rate would have given him nine more round-trippers in ‘06, or 51 for the year. Ortiz had 54 - that’s what we call pretty even.

And for all of you fantasy geeks out there like me, we can compare fantasy points in our Yahoo league vs. plate appearances.

Hafner - 733 points in 564 PAs = 1.30 points/PA
Ortiz - 864.5 points in 686 PAs = 1.26 points/PA

Again, it doesn’t seem like a big difference, but it can be. Given the same number of PAs as Ortiz, Hafner would have had 892 points last year (686 x 1.30). This comes out to 28 points ahead of David Ortiz and one point behind Ryan Howard for first overall.

Get some.

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** We will use PA instead of At-Bats because you could theoretically drive in someone with a walk which would count towards your PA but not your AB.