In another one of my posts that will interest exactly nine other people, I plan to look at the recent 10-team fantasy baseball draft in which I participated on Monday, March 24 and make my predictions as to who will be the picks that give each team the most value over the 2008 season as well as the picks that will have the worst value relative to where they were drafted.

First of all, the league format: We play in a 10-team Yahoo! custom points league. Categories for offense are HR, RBI, SB, R, BB, 1B, 2B, and 3B. For pitchers, the categories are W, L, ER, IP, K, Hld, and SV. We have a MLB universe roster of 20 players (5 of which are bench) plus two DL spots per team. There are unlimited trades (with an August deadline) and unlimited other moves as well. The league is a daily league that has been running for five years (with a bit of turnover), but it is not a keeper league.

And by value I am, again, talking about relative to the spot where they were picked. A-Rod will have tremendous value going with the first pick, but that is expected value - what we are looking for is unexpected value or expected value not achieved.

So without any more rambling, here are (in my opinion) the best and worst value draft picks by team, in order of how we drafted.

1. Eric Ramirez

Best pick - Josh Hamilton - 13th round

In half a season last year, the rookie with the troubled past totaled 19 HR and 47 RBI in only 337 plate appearances. This year, he has a guaranteed starting spot on the Rangers and is going to a park that might be the best in the majors for left handed power hitters. Some of the OF taken in the two rounds before Hamilton include Jermaine Dye, Matt Kemp, Jose Guillen and Delmon Young. My guess is that Hamilton out-homers all those guys. In a quick glance at eight popular projection systems, his average home run prediction from all of those is 21. If he stays healthy, he will fly past that number in Arlington

Worst pick - Derrek Lee - 6th round

Not so much that it was a bad pick in the 6th round, but because power is the most sought-after commodity in our league, it was a questionable strategy to wait until the 6th for a 1B - the premium power position. At that point, it may have been wise to wait and grab Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko or Ryan Garko - all of whom went in much later rounds. At age 32, Lee is not the 46/107 guy from three years ago, but he is also not the 22/82 guy from last year. His mean lies somewhere in the middle - but he is just too inconsistent for me as a sixth pick.

2. Kirk Kornegay

Best pick - Joakim Soria - 20th round

I almost had this pegged as Scott Kazmir in the 9th round, but his current injury gives me just a little bit of concern, so Soria is the choice. The Royals play a lot of close games due to an offense that is in the bottom half of the AL. And that is good for a closer, especially one with Soria’s numbers. Soria posted a VORP of 26.4 in 2007 - higher than any of his other Royal teammates. His ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, and BAA were all outstanding in 2007. His BABIP was .264, showing he was a bit lucky, and therefore likely causing a slight bump up in his other peripherals in 2008. However, a closer with 25+ save potential in the last round is a steal.

Worst pick - John Lackey - 7th round

We all know how incredible Lackey has been as a pitcher recently. He was the third best pitcher in the AL last season, and thanks to a significant decrease in his BB/9 and a sharp increase in his LOB%, Lackey made the jump from 13-14 wins per season to 19, and an ERA in the mid-3’s to exactly 3.01. But a strained triceps injury on his throwing arm currently leaves Lackey on the shelf for all of April. Five months from Lackey could still make up for the lost time, especially with an improved offense, but pitchers such as Harang, Oswalt, Beckett and Matsuzaka were still on the board for this pick.

3. Jeremy Gibson

Best pick - H. Bell and R. Betancourt - Rounds 16 and 17

The combined numbers for these two pitchers in 2007 looks like this:

11 wins, 172 IP, 34 ER, 182 Ks, 65 holds, and an ERA around 1.80

Those are fabulous numbers for the amount of innings they account for (out of our 1200 total). Betancourt has some numbers from 2007 that make you feel like the numbers will dip a little, such as an astonishingly low BABIP of .246 and astonishingly high LOB% of 86.4%. Bell also makes you think a little bit because his ERAs in 2005 and 2006 were in the 5’s and his 102 Ks more than doubles anything he has ever done, but even if these pitchers see their numbers decrease by 20% across the board, the 16th and 17th rounds are great for their stats.

Worst pick - Chipper Jones - 6th round

Jones is a great player, and after last year, he clearly has plenty of offense left in that bat. Despite missing almost 30 games, Jones was 6th in the Majors in batting average and VORP and also top 12 in Runs Created (keep in mind, a cumulative stat). So while normally this would be a great pick, there is just too much injury concern for me. Jones has not played in more than 137 games since 2003 and in 2005-2006 he missed at least 50 games each season. Jeremy has an admirable back-up plan with Mike Lowell also on the roster, and I just have this feeling that he will definitely be forced into active duty on Jeremy’s team before too long. But of course this could easily end up being his best pick if it pans out and Jones stays healthy.

4. Ryan Kirksey

Best pick - Dustin McGowan - 19th round

The one pitcher I was targeting most in the late rounds this year, and I kept waiting and waiting, forcing myself to be patient in hopes on one else would take him. McGowan, now 26, saw so many things trend upward from 2006 to 2007: namely his K/9, BB/9, ERA, and WHIP. Plus, he is an extreme groundball pitcher (a great thing seeing as he will be facing some of the toughest lineups in the league on a regular basis) to the tune of 53% in 2007. An improved Blue Jays lineup certainly won’t hurt his case for wins, but a questionable bullpen might. Still, if his Ks and IP continue to go up and his BB and earned runs continue to go down, I should be happy.

Worst pick - Francisco Liriano - 12th round

I will be the hardest on myself. This was a stupid pick here. I thought a lot of people were looking for him about this time, but it turns out most people were going to wait a couple more rounds. They had probably all seen the note that came out Monday that I missed: Liriano will likely open the season with some starts in Triple-A before moving up. Guys like Carmona, Wang and Bonderman went around at that time, and I probably would have been better off with one of those. Even for a talent like Liriano, there are too many questions surrounding a return from Tommy John that I should have waited a few more picks or waited to see how he responds in real game action.

5. Regan Boudra

Best pick - Chien Ming Wang - 12th round

Probably the hardest draft to pick a best/worst value. Every pick seemed to be pretty much in line with the perceived value of the player, so these may be a stretch in a couple of areas. Regan’s quote during the draft of “I’ll take 17 wins even if he only gets 17 strikeouts” was one of the highlights, but it also rings somewhat true. Actually, Wang’s K rate improved to 4.70 per nine last year, up from 3.14 in 2006. Your standard for acceptable K/9 rates for a starter really should be around 5.6 or so, but when 59% of your balls in play are grounders, you are getting plenty of people out that way (even with Jeter and whatever lead glove they will play at first). So 17 wins is certainly achievable, I might even go one or two more for him.

Worst pick - Carlos Guillen - 6th round

I am lukewarm on Carlos Guillen as I had him in the second half of last year (the half he was just good, and not incredible), but he is just a bit too streaky in my opinion. His HR the past 5 years have been 21, 19, 5, 20, 7. His OPS: 859, 920, 803, 921, 753. RC: 99, 112, 51, 107, 55. Still, playing first should keep him on the field more and cut down on his pesky injuries. Guillen is not a bad pick here by any means, but he was the fifth SS taken after Rollins, Ramirez, Reyes and Tulo - so there were options available.

6. Tim Miller

Best pick - Kerry Wood - 20th round

Wood was officially named the Cubs’ closer earlier that day, and the Cubs look to compete in the division, so Wood should factor in many of those decisions albeit if he remains healthy. A K/9 rate of 8.9 last year in limited work is very promising (especially since it was 5.95 in 2006), but a BB/9 rate of 4.81 is decidedly not promising. He has not had a number that high since 2000, so he can certainly get it under control, but with Marmol and Howry breathing down his neck, Pinella does have options if this arm-saving move of having Wood close does not pan out.

Worst Pick - Justin Verlander - 5th round

This may be a bit of a reach on my part, because Verlander is going to be great, but he was the fifth pitcher taken overall in our draft. Only one fantasy preview source that I found (out of about 15) had Verlander ranked fifth. The average of all of those pegged Verlander at 9.4. Still on the board when Verlander went were Beckett, Sabathia, Harang, and Haren - all of whom could make a case to go ahead of Verlander. A couple of things to watch would be the interesting fact that despite the velocity of Verlander’s fastball decreasing the past three years, his K rate has increased. Watch that and his innings count (high for a young pitcher), but the offense behind him should support plenty of wins. Still, JV is Tim’s ace, and should serve him well

7. Joel Ramirez

Best pick - Edgar Renteria - 15th round

While nothing with the glove, Renteria has again turned into a force with the bat. Hitting in that stacked Detroit lineup won’t hurt anything, either. Since our league does not have a middle infielder spot, once the top ten SS went, it was a while until number 11 (Renteria) went off the board. While Joel also drafted Hanley Ramirez, a quick check of his roster shows that Renteria would be a better fit at the Util spot that anyone else in his lineup (Giambi, Rolen, etc.). Renteria has always been a great source for hits and average (although last year he was off the charts and won’t repeat that), but his OBP has also improved four straight years, something that is vital to the Tigers and to fantasy points leagues.

Worst pick - Jacque Jones and Derrick Turnbow - 17th and 18th rounds

Jones also has the benefit of being in the Tigers’ lineup, but he will be batting ninth and is generally projected with a line around .265/.325/.410 and 10-15 HR - in other words no real value in our league. Jones’ Runs Created numbers last year dropped from 85 to 58, thanks in part to a 100-point drop in SLG. His best days are behind him.

Turnbow is in line to replace Gagne if he fails in Milwaukee, but he has two years of overall numbers that are just bad. Actually, the strikeouts have been great at over 11 K/9 the past two years, but the walk rate has been over 6 BB/9 over the same two years. Value comes only if he gets the chance to save again.

8. David Gilly

Best pick - Chad Billingsley - 15th round

There is only one real number I can find where Billingsley did not improve from 2006 to 2007 (his first true chance to start), and that is his HR/9 number of .92, up from .70. Billingsley’s career FB% is around 37.6% or just better than average, so the HR rate is not too much of a concern, especially pitching in Dodger Stadium. Besides that, all of his rate stats such as ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, BABIP, LOB%, and BAA all made significant increases in 2007. And he is only 24 - which means he is still maturing.

Worst pick - Jorge Posada - 8th round

Posada is a fine catcher and should put up great positional numbers in the Yankees lineup. But he was taken as the fourth catcher overall behind the 3M’s - Martinez, Martin and McCann. Fourth is not crazy for Posada, but I think it started a run on catchers too early. In fact, 6 teams drafted their catcher before the 10th round was over. And that may not sound so bad, but that means that 6 catchers were drafted in the top 100 players. And that just can’t be justified. For example, in MLB.com’s top 100 fantasy list, only three are catchers. I imagine David drafted with a few thoughts of Posada’s 2007 numbers in his head. We have discussed this before, but Posada’s 2007 base stats just do not coincide with the rest of his career, and at 37, he can’t be expected to be that lucky again - especially with his incredible .389 BABIP.

9. Justin Jones

Best pick - Curtis Granderson - 8th round

News of Granderson’s broken finger dropped the value of this CF who had a 20-20-20-20-20-20-20-20-20 season (or something like that) in 2007. So this is a guarded pick, but even if Granderson misses three to four weeks from the time of the injury, he should be a steal in the 8th round. Granderson led all AL leadoff men in OPS in 2007 with .926 and the projections of Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and ZiPS all feel that Granderson will repeat his 2007 numbers in 2B, HR and RBI - all very valuable in our league.

Worst pick - Nick Swisher - 4th round

Again, I sort of understand this because first basemen were flying off the board so he had to have somebody, but Atkins, Adrian Gonzalez, Lee, and Konerko were still on the board - all of whom will probably have better power numbers than Swisher. Swisher is famous for his ability to get on base, but with his power, he might be sacrificing some HR (which were down by 13 from’06) for walks and other hits. That’s great in real life, “get on base….help the team,” but doesn’t do too much for us. He can play 1B or OF, so depending on how Justin’s other 1B (Todd Helton) does, this may all be a moot point.

10. Jason Kirksey

Best pick - Adam Wainwright - 15th round

I was all ready to put his pick of Kelvim Escobar in this slot, but then word comes today that his injury might be career-threatening, so that shot that idea. Anyway, Wainwright’s move from reliever to starter was an overwhelming success. While most of his numbers saw a bit of an uptick, understandable due to his innings being almost three times that of 2006, the one number that decreased significantly was his HR/9 from 0.72 to 0.58. This is promising for someone who is going to be the veritable ace of the staff at least until the all-star break. Wainwright is another groundball pitcher (48%), but with more than a third of his batted balls being flyballs, it is good that he is developing a skill of keeping balls in the park at a better rate.

Worst pick - Dontrelle Willis - 14th round

We all like looking for great value in the last quarter of the draft, but…

And now he moves to a tougher league for pitchers, albeit with a stellar offense behind him. There is also always talk of Comerica being a pitchers’ park, but in 2006 and 2007, it was very average, and actually a better park for hitters on average over the last three years than the Marlins’ stadium in Miami. That could spell trouble.

So there you have it, too much information that too few people don’t care about. I will do a brief recap mid-season of how things are going and then do a seasonal review looking back at these picks and deciding what the REAL best and worst value picks were for 2008.

I would love to hear your complaints or praise on your thoughts on the picks in general.

It seems quite hard to believe, but we are only three weeks from February 2008. And since February is still the month when pitchers and catchers report, we are drawing very close to a new baseball season.

After the first of year, many, MANY websites and media outlets will begin posting predictions and projections for the 2008 season; who will win the divisions, win the big awards, have the best fantasy seasons, etc. And while most of those are fun to read at a slow work day, they are just the guesses of the writer or team of writers that put the information together, and are very rarely based on anything quantitative or conclusive. You will get a lot of people saying A-Rod or Ortiz or Miguel Cabrera will win the AL MVP next year. Wow. Was that hard to come up with? My wife could tell you that much. It’s the projections that are actually based on something other than gut feelings and conjecture that are truly interesting to look at.

And that’s what I want to explore today. Most of what you will read below is still very much unknown by John and Jane Baseball Fan, who rely on their local paper and ESPN for projections of a new season. But in the past few years, a few dedicated people and ambitious websites have taken on the goal of trying to come up with the most accurate projections possible. Whether the goal is winning a fantasy title, creating an accurate formulaic projection, or just the desire to be right, all the examples you will see here want the title of the most accurate season forecaster.

And while it may seem intimidating to many (including myself) to stop thinking of projections in terms of, “well this player is a little older, he won’t do as well this year,” or “this team added some great hitters, they will definitely score more runs (ahem, Astros),” and start thinking of things like park effects and team run differential and pitcher LD/FB ratios, in the end we will come up with a much better product.

So let’s get started with the most familiar of the bunch first:

The Bill James Handbook 2008 & BIS Pitcher Projections

Every year, Bill James and his partnering organization, Baseball Info Solutions, release a set of projections for the upcoming season. These are usually the first to arrive, and if you search the player pages on www.fangraphs.com, you can find the simple projections for most players next season (more on that in a minute).

What these projections offer is pretty simple. For hitters, you will find your basic projections for stats like average, RBI, HR, plate appearances, hits, walks, OBP, SLG, OPS, etc. But, there is also valuable information found in projections for less popular stats like BB%, ISO, BABIP, Runs Created, and RC/27. Lance Berkman, for example, is projected to have a .954 OPS and create 124 runs in 2008. And those are numbers not based on Miguel Tejada in the lineup. Your pitching stats will encompass the normal wins, losses, ERA, innings, strikeouts, etc. But also available are K/9, HR/9, WHIP, and pitcher BABIP numbers amongst others.

Without the exact numbers and formula, all I can say is that the projections for players in the Handbook are based on past performance, then three things are factored in, age, projected playing time, and park effects. The only downside to the Bill James projections is that they are the first projections out, usually by the first of December, and therefore can not account for things like recent trades that have just happened, injuries during spring training, or anything that might affect where a player plays or how much he plays. And some numbers are not available for rookies of the previous year. So if you want to know how Troy Patton will perform in 2008, you will have to look elsewhere.

You can pick up the Bill James Handbook at the publisher’s site here for $21.95.

PECOTA - Baseball Prospectus

PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is the creation of Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus and is possibly the most comprehensive projection system out there. It covers not only every major league player, but also projections for team records for the upcoming season.

Using a vast series of computations and algorithms including the not-so-well-known reliever leverage, BatDelta, PitDelta, and others that are incomprehensible to a run-of-the-mill numbskull like me, every player currently in a major league uniform is given a projection for the next season. Trying to simplify it all, the process works like this:

Using some of the same methods such as projected playing time, age, park index, risk for injury, past performance, etc., a projection is made for each hitter and pitcher.

The team totals for hitters in stats like Avg, OBP, SLG, are used and plugged into David Tate’s Marginal Lineup Value Formula, and an estimate of runs scored for each team is then spit out taking all of the factors for each hitter into account. So, an estimate for a team is based on the 650 PAs the everyday leadoff hitter might have, plus the 75 PAs a bench player might have who rarely gets in a game, and everyone in-between. Even forecasts for stolen bases are included.

For pitchers, the exercise is simpler, as they just total up the projections for runs allowed from each pitcher on the staff and tally those together for a team. You now have a team where you guess the number of runs they will score and the number of runs they will allow.

These runs scored and runs allowed totals for each team are then plugged into the Pythagenport formula, which translates those numbers into a win-loss total for every team in the Majors. Once you have those, it is easy to see who the formula thinks will have the most wins, losses, etc. for a season. and you can rank them by division, which BP does before every season.

PECOTA usually goes as far as to project up to five seasons for all players that are input in the calculations. But, because of the variance of numbers from year to year, players changing teams, and schedules that shift from year to year, the team won-loss records are typically done a year at a time.

The criticism I hear about PECOTA is that is very often seems to be too conservative. But some of that criticism tends to be unfounded. Using Berkman as an example again, he had that monster 2006 season, but PECOTA projected him at 32 HR and 100 RBI. This was laughed at more than once, but sure enough, Berkman finished the season at 34/102.

Every player has a PECOTA page on Baseball Prospectus, but you have to pay for a membership to be able to view them. But I can vouch that it can be very helpful for fantasy purposes. Team record projections are usually posted in an article on the front page, but also can only be fully viewed by members. A one-year subscription is $34.95 for the site.

Ron Shandler & Baseball Forecaster

Ron Shandler is the fantasy guru and stats projectionist made famous in the book Fantasyland by Sam Walker (a great read by the way) and the famed experts fantasy league, Tout Wars. Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster website (www.baseballhq.com) claims that it is “Since 1986, the industry’s leading resource for creating fantasy baseball winners.”

Shandler claims to be the first to acclimate sabermetrics, including some stats of his own creation, into fantasy baseball projections and predictions. And his numerous expert league titles and awards won by his website and projections definitely show that he is one of, if not the best in the business.

The mantra that Shandler uses to lure people to his product is that winning in fantasy is NOT, in fact, all about luck. Any fantasy player will try and tell you that he was lucky to pick up Magglio Ordonez in the 11th round last year or something similar, but Shandler doesn’t see it that way. He believes luck can be managed and even predicted.

In a world of fantasy- and real-life-based projections that are clouded by simple and non-descriptive stats, he takes what he calls a “components-based approach” to player projections. While a lot of times on this site, we talk about the numbers beneath the numbers and how certain things lead to more common stats we see like batting average, RBI, ERA, etc, Shandler really gets into the numbers beneath the numbers beneath the numbers of the common Fantasy stats out there.

It can sometimes seem like a daunting task to try and grapple with some of Shandler’s stats like qERA, the RIMA plan, and reliability score, but fortunately with each purchase of his book or online projections, a comprehensive glossary with explanations is included. The final outcome is very comprehensive in its format, showing all stats, rates, and formulas used to pull together the numbers for a specific player, culminating in the final projections for that player for the upcoming season.

This book is also now on sale and can be purchased here for $24.95. And of you order the book directly from Shandler Enterprises, he will also send the book in an online format, complete with PDF and excel files for all charts; a handy tool for draft day.

There also is some valuable information that can be had for free on the website, beginning with an option to sign up for a free e-newsletter that comes every Friday from January to September with projections, trends, FAQs, etc. Also check out Shandler’s essay on projective accuracy located here.

Marcels and Tangotiger

This set of projections is hot off the presses for 2008 and is available on the incredibly helpful website www.hardballtimes.com. Marcel projections are comically named for Ross Gellar’s monkey on the show Friends, as in they are so simple that even a monkey could do them.

Worked out by the famous sabermetric/projectionist blogger Tangotiger, Marcel projections (fromTHT website) “simply consist of averaging a player’s previous experience (with greatest weight on the most recent years) and regressing to the major league average depending on the number of years the player has been in the majors. This is done for each component (home runs, doubles, walks, etc.) A simple aging factor is applied, but no park factor.”

Easily laid out into projections for hitters and pitchers Marcels are laid out on The Hardball Times by default to rank hitters by GPA (gross production average, a stat developed by THT that is in the same family as OPS, but more accurate. GPA is laid out like batting average when determining good and bad. The formula for GPA is (OBP*1.8+SLG)/4, adjusted for ballpark factor), and pitchers by ERA. But each chart also has at least a dozen stat projections that are sortable for the upcoming predictions in 2008.

This link specifically lays out how Tangotiger determines Marcels, with numerous helpful comments attached that provide more insight into specifics below the essay. He does not use GPA in his projections, that is done after the fact by THT.

Essentially, Marcels counts on a baseline average for all major leaguers and uses that as a starting point for comparing hitters and pitchers and then relies on Tango’s 5/4/3 method of weighting the three previous seasons of data for a player and using that compared to projected plate appearances to come to the final conclusion. One downside is that all rookies with no MLB experience will be rated as being league average, which is not always the case.

Also in an interesting piece, Tango looks at Marcels related to other prognosticators (circa 2007) and compares them mathematically to the actual stats and each other, so it’s proves helpful to see how these different systems rated to at least one of their peers. Specifically look at comment number five by Nate Silver.

And while Marcels are free, THT also sells The Hardball Times Season Preview 2008, which includes newly developed player projections by The Hardball Times as well as projections for each team and also for players’ careers. The book is available here and sells for $17.95.

ZiPS and Dan Szymborksi

Right now, on the website www.baseballthinkfactory.org, Dan Szymborski is a little more than halfway through his yearly set of team by team articles complete with their ZiPS projections for 2008. ZiPS is a computer-based projection system that stands for sZymborskI Projection System.

Like many others, ZiPS relies on weighted yearly stats (four years for this system). But a difference in this projections system from many others is that Szymborski doesn’t try to compare his numbers and averages to individual players with similar past performances or results, but rather large groups with similar characteristics where he can concentrate on comparing larger sets of data against a more balanced field.

Stats such as BABIP, K-rate, and Speed Score and relied upon heavily in these projections for hitters and pitchers. And like the others, playing time and PAs are based on most recent playing time and PAs for specific players.

Szymborski also projects league offensive totals for upcoming seasons by weighing recent years for the separate leagues and looking at trends in offense, defense and pitching to determine new numbers. Projections for hitters can then be compared to these offensive totals or averages to see how they will compare. He also breaks them down by position in each league to truly compare apples to apples.

ZiPS projections are done for a very large number of players, some of which realistically have no shot at much playing time in the major leagues, but should they get that chance, Szymborski takes all of their factors into account as well and predicts performance should they get a shot. If using these for fantasy purposes, he leaves it up to the reader to determine whether they feel like they should take a shot on someone who may or may not have that playing time.

For now, the ZiPS projections are completely free and accessible through Baseball Think Factory. The articles on each team are a very good read and can easily be found on the front page. Most recently completed are the 2008 White Sox.

So there you have it, 2500 words about some of the most well-known and accurate projections out there. The question I hear the most is “well yeah, but how accurate were they in their projections? Which one should I use?” Well, find out for yourself. Pick up a couple of the books or check out a couple of the websites and look at predictions from last year and compare to the real numbers we now have. You will find a favorite eventually; one that peaks your interest based on what you really want to use them for.

If you know of any others that you would like me to research and get some info (like CHONE, Rotowire, etc.), let me know and I will see what I can do.

Since it is the All-Star Break, I wanted to take a present-day look AND a look back at my competitive fantasy baseball league, give some updates, and evaluate (in my opinion) each team’s best and worst value picks from the draft back in mid-March. At the beginning of the season, I guessed at what each team’s best value pick would be by the end of the season (which you can find here), so I will reference back to that, but this time be a little harsher by also pointing out where each team’s poorest pick was so far. I will also point out some good waiver-wire adds, horrible player drops, and anything else that peaks my interest.

First of all, the standings from our 10-team Mixed Points League we run on Yahoo. The three categories are manager, total points so far, and number of moves this season.

Tim - 5335.50 - 19
Jason - 5323.50 - 18
Ryan - 5316.50 - 21
Jeremy - 5211 - 39
Kirk - 5132.50 - 19
Regan - 5020.50 - 25
Glen - 4951 - 5
Joel - 4911 - 45
Dusty - 4762 - 24
Robby - 4377.50 - 8

The top three have been pretty consistent all year with Kirk and Jeremy making a strong push just before the break to move into the top half of the league. Two teams, Dusty and Robby, don’t really check much anymore, and it’s unfortunate, because both of those teams had or have potential. But the top four teams all being within 124 points of each other should make for a fun finish, especially when 100-point nights happen quite frequently.

Anyway, onto the best and worst value picks. The original draft can be seen in the comments section of this post (the order of the snake draft was Tim, Dusty, Ryan, Jeremy, Regan, Robby, Kirk, Joel, Jason, and Glen). A few groundrules first:

1. I am defining value by the production expected from X player in Y round. So, you won’t be seeing Regan’s best value pick as A-Rod (even though he is his most “valuable”) because he was taken with the fifth pick in the first round and you expect that kind of production from your first pick. Likewise, you won’t see Regan’s 20th round pick of Mark Prior as his worst value pick because you don’t expect that much from that pick anyway.

2. A player who has spent a significant amount of time injured or on the DL will not have that counted against them when considering bad value picks - it’s just bad luck. But, being hurt also won’t cost a player if he is a candidate for best value pick

3. A player does not have to be on the team who drafted him to be a good or bad value pick. If a player taken in the 17th round is having a Hall of Fame type season, it doesn’t matter whose team it is for, it’s still a HOF season. It’s just the manager’s fault if they dropped him or traded him, etc. But I will get into some of the best/worst drops/adds/trades when we are done.

From first to tenth place:

Tim
Best Value - Russell Martin (18th Round) - Martin is the number one catcher and is ranked number 24 overall. A catcher with 60 RBI and 16 SB at the break? Wow. Mauer, Martinez, Pudge, Posada, Barrett, McCann, and Piazza were all taken ahead of Martin.
Worst Value - Albert Pujols (1st Round) - Pujols has been really good this year, but not really great. You expect the number one overall pick to at least be in the top 15 or 20 if he has been healthy, not number 28 overall. Pujols is currently in the longest homer-less streak of his career. But this should definitely change before the season is over.

Dusty
Best - Alex Rios (12th) - Rios is 9th amongst OF and 17th overall amongst hitters this year. I think most were scared away by his freak staph infection last year, but Rios bounced back with a vengeance, ranking fifth among OF in HR so far.
Worst - Jeff Kent (5th) - Kent is the 9th ranked second baseman and ranked 88th overall amongst hitters. Every other 2B save Utley was available in the fifth.

Ryan
Best - Chris Young (10th) - The MLB leader in ERA this year has certainly not disappointed so far in 2007, and he ranks as the 21st best starting pitcher so far, and he would be in the top ten except for three no decisions he has received this year due to lack of offensive support - in those three games, he pitched 21 innings and gave up only one run.
Worst - Andruw Jones (3rd) - Ugh. His troubles are well-documented so far this year, and his contract may suffer at the end of this season because of it. He showed signs of improvement right before the break - it’s just sad that “signs of improvement” for him mean he is now batting .211. Jones has 41 and 51 homeruns the past two years, and may not reach 30 in 2007.

Jeremy
Best - Magglio Ordonez (17th) - I don’t know what is the bigger surprise, that Maggs lasted until the 17th round in our draft or that he leads the majors in average and is in the top five in RBI. Jeremy unfortunately dropped him after two slow weeks, but he was scooped up and has been on a tear ever since.
Worst - Bobby Abreu (4th) - If you know exactly what is wrong with Abreu this year, please let me know. We all knew the power was going, but an average of only .264 and an OBP that just reached .350? I have heard everything from he can’t handle New York pressure to he is injured and plenty more. But 66th amongst hitters is not going to do it for a fourth round pick.

Regan
Best - Erik Bedard (16th) - The MLB strikeout leader is the number 11 pitcher overall despite the fact that he only has a 7-4 record. I guess having more than 20 Ks more than your closest competition will do that for you. Other pitchers taken in the 16th: Rich Hill, Kevin Millwood, Dave Bush.
Worst - Robinson Cano (6th) - After a fantastic 2006, Cano has been a disappointment for the Yanks this year. Cano was the third 2B taken (after Utley and Kent), but ranks 13th now with such stars as Aaron Hill, Kelly Johnson and Ray Durham ahead of him. Cano also is 108th overall amongst hitters this year.

Robby
Best - Ken Griffey, Jr. (19th) - It’s pretty much a toss-up as to who has been the most valuable based on where they were drafted this year: Griffey or Martin. Unfortunately, Robby never got to experience any Griffey greatness as he dropped him three days before the season started and he was picked up by Joel. But I admit, I thought he would be out already with injury - and, while that may still happen, Joel is reaping the rewards these days.
Worst - Jason Bay (3rd) - Bay is the 26th ranked outfielder so far this year, and while that sounds bad, it is still ahead of others like Jones, Vernon Wells, Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, and Nick Swisher. But, I feel as though Bay was drafted in the third round to produce similar stats to what he has averaged the past two years: about .295, 33 HR, 105 RBI, 100 runs, OPS around .940, and 16 SB. His numbers of .254, 13 HR, 56 RBI, .766 OPS, and 2 SB just don’t cut it.

Kirk
Best - CC Sabathia (10th) - This was the toughest decision. Sabathia in the 10th or Fielder in the 7th. Great pitching is harder to find late, so I went with Sabathia here. CC is the number one ranked pitcher in all of baseball in our league, and no one is within 35 points of catching him. His 12 wins are tied for the best in the majors - not bad for someone taken in the same round as Barry Zito.
Worst - Jermaine Dye (3rd) - Dye had a career year last year, but it is a little crazy to think he was going to repeat 44 HR and 120 RBI. Still, I would not have predicted a drop to numbers like .214/12/39. That is just brutal - Dye, in a season-long funk, doesn’t even crack the top 125 hitters.

Joel
Best - Eric Byrnes (20th) - The 20th round. For a player who is number 21 overall in hitters and is better so far than Ortiz, Pujols, Howard, Hafner and Berkman amongst many others. Plus, Byrnes is almost on pace for a 30/30 seaso. Joel dropped him on June 23 for Aaron Rowand during a slump, and Regan has been enjoying him ever since.
Worst - Marcus Giles (7th) - Giles has very little pop, very little speed, and very little on-base ability so far this year, and he is only ranked 18th amongst second basemen, not even beating Cano, Mark DeRosa, Mark Ellis, or Jose Lopez. His line is .242/4/31 at the break.

Jason
Best - Dan Haren (14th) - Another case of being dropped too soon, Jason dropped this All-Star game starter after two weeks for Chris Duncan. Haren then went on to win 10 straight and put up enough points to be second rated starting pitcher, contributing those points to Joel’s team. Haren has now been traded to Ryan. But don’t worry, Jason will get credit for a free agent pickup later.
Worst - Travis Hafner (2nd) - By the time Hafner got hurt last year in the first weekend of September, he already had 42 HR, 117 RBI, and was batting .308. He would need some kind of miracle to reach those numbers now with his .262/14/57 line. Hafner, ranked 31st overall for hitters, still possesses an OPS below .850 for the season. Last year it was 1.097.

Glen
Best - Cole Hamels (13th) - A tough decision again between Hamels in the 13th and Chipper Jones in the 18th. Again I went with pitching, but this time only because Jones was hurt for a period of time. Hamels is the fifth ranked pitcher overall and is tied for first in the NL in wins and is second in strikeouts. Other pitchers taken in the 13th: Chris Ray, Dontrelle Willis, and Derek Lowe.
Worst - Derrek Lee (4th) - Lee, where hast all thine power gone? Six homeruns in half a season?! Can’t be what you want out of your 4th rounder, even if he is batting .330. Also, he is on pace for 85 RBI and is the 17th ranked first baseman, with Youkilis, Swisher and Casey Blake all beating him out.

________________

Five best free agent pickups:

5. Chone Figgins by Dusty on June 5
4. Hunter Pence by Kirk on May 15
3. J.J. Hardy by Dusty on May 5
2. Mike Lowell by Jeremy on May 10
1. Brad Penny by Jason on April 2

Five worst player drops:

5. Ryan Braun by Ryan on May 30
4. Eric Byrnes by Joel on June 13
3. Ken Griffey, Jr. by Robby on March 28
2. Dan Haren by Jason on April 17
1. Magglio Ordonez by Jeremy on April 20

Most lopsided trade that looked fair when it happened:

Joel trades Vladmir Guerrero to Jason for Carlos Beltran and Dan Wheeler

Moment of the year for far:

Robby bringing a “consultant” to the draft, and now being 400 points out of 9th place.

At the end of this baseball season, two of the games best center fielders, Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones, will hit the free agent market. Both are looking to sign long-term deals even though they will both be over 30, and both will be looking for mega-bucks (presumably from their current teams, but perhaps not).

The big difference right now is that one of these guys is having a career year and watching those dollar signs go up and up, while the other one is Andruw Jones.

Partially out of sheer morbid curiosity and partially because I feel like I wasted a third round pick in my most competitive fantasy league on him, I wanted to examine this anomaly that is the 2007 Andruw Jones and see what is really wrong with him and if there are any signs of turning things around. I have a theory here, but I will share it as we get closer to the end. Here’s a clue, though….he really wants to see the money.

I hear people say all the time, “His batting average is so low, and his power is down - that’s why he is having a bad year.” Fine. But WHY is his batting average down and WHY is his power down? He doesn’t appear to be injured. He isn’t very old. It must be something else. Is he unlucky? Is he getting fooled more than he used to? Are pitchers pitching around him more? These are the questions I am looking to answer.

First let’s look at Jones’ production per year since 2000, and then his average year from 2000-2006, and his current 2007 pace for those same numbers:

So the numbers are right here in front of us and they are pretty glaring. Excluding walks, Jones is at least 15% worse than his average season in every one of the these categories. Now we need to start looking at why that is. What is causing a low average, low power, but more walks. For example, you can’t just say, “he has stopped hitting for power,” unless he is injured or old. WHY has he stopped hitting for power?

In order to not to get too confusing here, I am going to list a group of predictive stats where Jones has the lowest numbers of his career this year, and then pick a few to analyze:

Strikeout % - 27.6% (career 21.8%)
Isolated Power - .183 (career .236)
BABIP - .229 (career .284)
RC/27 - 3.77 (career 5.91)
GB/FB Ratio - .82 (career 1.03)
HR/FB - 13% (career 20.5%)
EqA - .245 (career .283)

Looking at these, combined with the fact that, despite his other struggles, he is on pace to draw the third most walks in his career, I think I have noticed a pattern. I truly feel like Jones has fallen in love with the idea that more homeruns will give him more dollars this winter and he is doing everything he can to get every last HR he can. Here are the reasons why I believe this:

Pitch Selection - The relatively high walk rate shows that he has chosen not to swing at bad pitches or ones he can’t handle well. Balls just inside or just outside that he may not be able to drive can’t help him, so he will lay off of them. Balls high or low might lead to groundballs or pop-ups, so he lays off of those too. This leads to more walks.

But, it also leads to the need to swing at almost every pitch in the strike zone, or every pitch that appears to be in the strike zone (sliders, sinkers, etc.). Jones is on pace for 1680 pitches that are strikes this season, the most in his career. Tinkering with your swing, trying to mash homeruns every time up, and favoring the back foot causes severe upper-cut swings (here is the most famous example from this season, a walk-off homerun against the Phillies on April 30) and an increased number of fly balls on balls put in play. Which brings us to the next step.

Ground Ball/Fly Ball ratios - Not mentioned above in the stats is the fact that Jones’ FB ratio is the highest of his career at 45.5%, and that his GB ratio is the lowest of his career at 37.3%. This translates into the number you do see above, which is his GB/FB ratio of 0.82, the lowest in his 10 years in the Bigs. So, almost half of Jones’ balls in play this year are fly balls instead of line drives and ground balls, where the majority of hits come from.

Compound this with the fact that his HR/FB ratio is also the lowest of his career at 13%, and you have a recipe for disaster. More fly balls in play equals more outs being made per time you put the bat on the ball, which brings up the next point; BABIP.

Batting Average on Balls in Play - This stat is becoming more and more popular to try and determine why a hitter has a certain average when it is so far above or below his career norm. A batter with abnormally high or low BABIP can usually attribute it to bad luck, and can expect some regression. But, the same light, high or low BABIP can almost always be directly correlated to success in batting average. We can apply this here to Jones. His BABIP is the lowest of his career at .229. This number is abysmally low, as an average number is somewhere around .290, and Jones is at .284 for his career.

In the second half, one would expect that number to rise just because the law of averages says it almost has to - it really is that bad. But more fly balls do lead to easier outs on balls in play, which leads to less hits and, in turn, a lower batting average. And on the at-bats where he does get a hit, the power is still not following, for reasons we talked about above, and further evidenced in my last point.

Isolated Power - Subtracting AVG from SLG can give an interested party a quick and dirty look at what kind of power a hitter displays beyond just what their batting average looks like. Before this year, Jones’ last time with an ISO number below .208 was his rookie season in 1997 when it was .185, still higher that he .183 he is displaying this year. A combination of many fly balls plus a Line Drive Percentage of 17.3% (below his career average of 18.2%) is leading to much less power for the famed slugger who hit 41 and 51 homeruns the past two seasons. So much so that Jones’ SLG% this year is more than 100 points below what his career average is (.382 to .499).

Now I am not a hitting coach by any means, but my remedy for Jones would be to expand the strike zone a little bit so he can hit to all fields (line drives to all fields, that is), while still keeping the selective eye that allows him to take the walks and get on base. Also, go back to the line drive swing that helped Jones so much in the seasons where he was hitting between 35 and 50 homeruns a year.

Homeruns might look like the key to the offseason treasure right now, but everyone is sure going to be second-guessing a 31-year-old center fielder with a batting average of .200 with no power if he ends the season that way. An all-around hitting approach would do Jones a world of good right now and, more importantly, would also allow him to help save my freaking fantasy team!

While all of you eagerly and impatiently wait for whatever wisdom I will force on you next, I recommend you check out Sports Illustrated’s second annual Ultimate Fantasy Draft, put together by Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus.

The idea is pretty elementary.  Take every player at every level of professional baseball and completely start over. If you took away contracts, past history, and MLB service time, how would teams build through a draft? All you would have left as determining factors would be age, position, and predictions of future performance. There are some interesting additions and omissions if you compare the list to last year….and some of your best players today are simply left off the top 50 altogether because of their age. Also included is an honorable mention list and a list of dropoffs from 2006.

Interesting water cooler or bar stool conversation, if you ask me.

Up next in this space, an analysis of the 3,000 hit club (and one player who is about to join).

On March 25, the Southeast Invitational fantasy baseball draft was held for our Yahoo points league. The full results of the draft can be found by looking at the comments (I posted it there to not take space here). But I thought it might be interesting to look at all of the picks in hindsight and determine the best value pick for each team throughout the 20 rounds.

Obviously I am not going to pick Albert Pujols with the #1 selection as Tim’s, because that is appropriate value for that player. I am talking more like Regan’s selection of Justin Morneau in the 20th round in 2006. That is the paragon of value picks anytime you can get the MVP with your last pick. Of course, this is just as I see it now, and we can revisit this at the end of the season to see how many I hit on.

For many of these players I will use the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections which is a formula that takes certain factors into account such as age, injury risk, ballpark, similar players in history, ability, batting order, etc. in their predictions. Unfortunately, it is a subscriber-only service, so I can’t link to specific players, but I will give you the relevent information for each.

We’ll go in order of the draft, 1-10:

Tim - Dave Bush/Chris Capuano - Rounds 16/17

This tandem of Brewer pitchers taken back to back could prove to be well worth the round(s) they were taken. Baseball Prospectus predicts Milwaukee will win the NL Central and their rotation will be a big reason why if that should happen. Along with Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan, the Brew Crew have the best pitching in the division that will be backed up by an improved offense that includes Prince Fielder, Bill Hall, Rickie Weeks, Johnny Estrada, Corey Hart and others. They are both projected to have double digit wins with ERAs around 4.00.

Dusty - Lyle Overbay - Round 19

I really wanted to put Alex Rios here whom Dusty got in round 12, I really did. But looking at the player, the projections, and where each was taken, it has to be Overbay. Rios is slotted to bat 6th for the Blue Jays while Overbay has been moved into the two hole. Now I don’t feel Rios’ staph infection will have any lingering effects, but Overbay’s extra at-bats this season may ramp up his already consistent production. BP projects him for a .291/.366/.476 line with 22 HR and 93 RBI. He will also score plenty of runs with Wells, Thomas and Glaus hitting behind him. Not a bad utlity player if I do say so myself.

Ryan - Howie Kendrick - Round 17

PECOTA is very high on this player and so am I. The 23-year-old second baseman has hit and hit well at every level he has played at in professional baseball, and he is hitting almost .400 this spring. His projections look like this: .305/.339/.487 with 17 HR, 75 RBI and 11 steals. When similar, older second-sackers with less upside were taken 8 to 10 rounds earlier, I was more than happy to take him where I did.

Jeremy - Magglio Ordonez - Round 17

I still don’t know how he got passed on for so long, but Magglio dropping this far is a steal. Some OF taken before him include Luke Scott, Chris Burke, Curtis Granderson, Jacque Jones and Gary Matthews, Jr. Ordonez is much more of a proven commodity than all of these guys. While the BP projections for him do not look good (16 HR, 75 RBI), I disagree with them. He is finally healthy, in the middle of a great lineup, and is only 33 years old. The projections factor in injury risk and therefore only have him playing 80% of the games, so if that improves, his stats will across the board as well.

Regan - Chad Cordero - Round 19

When you get to round 19 and you are looking for a closer, you expect to find David Weathers or Dan Miceli, not someone who has 76 saves and an ERA under 3 the past two years. Cordero strikes out just under a batter per inning and is projected to have 27 saves and an ERA of 3.33. The only thing from making this a truly great steal is the relatively few save chances the Nationals may present to Cordero seeing as how they might lose 100 games this year.

Robby - Rich Harden - Round 14

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. That’s what I felt this year after having getting burned by drafting Harden last year and having him pitch less than 10 games in 2006. I wanted him badly, but didn’t bite. There is probably no greater risk/reward pick in the entire draft. Harden’s numbers are so unbelievable when he is healthy that he was probably worth the risk higher than round 14 considering how good he has looked in spring training. His projections don’t look so hot, because they see the injury problems continuing, but he is still projected for a strikeout per inning and an ERA under 4. If he is healthy for almost a full season, I say that number drops below 3.60. Just looking at his numbers the past three years when he is healthy give you a good glimpse of his dominance. Compared to all other starting pitchers, his strikeout rate, homerun rate and Batting Average on Balls in Play are all above the 90th percentile in that timeframe. I actually hope he stays healthy because I would love to see what he can do over a whole season.

Kirk - Chad Tracy - Round 20

This is a guy often overlooked when it comes to conversation about third basemen. This year, he is at the magical age of 27, something that ALWAYS factors into PECOTA. As the number three hitter with two marginal guys hitting in front of him (Stephen Drew and Orlando Hudson), Tracy has a projected line of .289/.353/.500 with 25 homers and 89 RBI. Bump up those RBI numbers some if Drew and Hudson have above average years in OBP, and you have quite good value coming out of the 20th and final round.

Joel - Richie Sexson - Round 13

I saw some guys say after he was picked they were surprised how long he lasted. After a slow start last year, he really came on at the end with 34 homers and 107 RBI. The batting average is never something to be excited about, but with a more consistent year, he could put up similar numbers to last year. Projections say look for 31 homers and 96 RBI, and if Adrian Beltre and Jose Vidro do their jobs and get on base, look for more. Most importantly, they project Sexson to be healthy which is encouraging after shoulder problems in the past. After the 9th round, there were only two players taken who hit at least 34 homers in 2006; Giambi in the 11th and Sexson in the 13th. Not too shabby for a perennial 30-100 guy.

Jason - Hanley Ramirez - Round 10

Last year, as a rookie, Ramirez was the 6th rated shortstop behind only Reyes, Jeter, Rollins, Tejada and Young. This year, his projections look almost identical to his final numbers from last year - they foresee a .289/.350/.453 line with 15 HR and 48 SB. Plus, he is still young with plenty of upside at age 23. While I think Dan Uggla should have a little step backwards, I see Hanley still going forward, getting used to major league pitching, being more patient at the plate, and putting up numbers that get stronger as the season goes on.

Glen - Chipper Jones - Round 18

Another pick you look at and say, “how did he last that long?” Well, injuries have slowed him the past few years, that’s why. While there is some risk here that he will stay healthy and be able to play 140 games, his OPS was still 1.005 over 477 plate appearances in 2006. The projections for Jones are McCain-style conservative as they see him only playing 70 percent of the team’s games at third. But looking at the rate stats, his projected line looks like .292/.392/.532 for an OPS of .924. At 35, Chipper is still one of the best at getting on base and driving in runs so if extrapolate those rates over 600 PAs, you are looking at good numbers. Here is hoping he gets there — or maybe not for the rest of our sakes.

So those are my thoughts on the draft the day after. How about yours? What are your favorite picks? Your least favorite?

Last September, some friends and I got into a discussion about who was having the better season, Travis Hafner or David Ortiz. This really started around Labor Day (the same time Hafner broke his hand on a HBP) and continued for the rest of the season despite the fact that Hafner did not play the final month.

On September 5, I put together a spreadsheet of very basic information that compared Hafner and Ortiz through that date comparing data such as counting stats like HR, RBI, BB, etc. as well as rate stats like AVG, OBP, SLG, and all of these with Runners On, Close and Late situations, etc. I will be happy to email this Excel spreadsheet to you if you are interested.

But a lot is said about Ortiz and this aura he has about being so clutch and “look at all the game-winning hits he has over the past few years” and all of that. Without getting into the conversation about how game winning hits are truthfully all a result of circumstance and luck (does your team plan for you to be up in the ninth inning down one run? if Ortiz is on deck with two outs in the eighth, do the Red Sox take an out so he can come up the next inning? if the Red Sox are down two, does their opponent allow them to put two men on for Ortiz so a homer wins it?), let’s look at some numbers.

We will not be able to compare counting stats for this excercise because Ortiz had 122 more plate appearances than Hafner. So we will have to stick with rate stats - which is fine. Each player has a large enough sample size that we can compare them fairly.

Admittedly, those situations do come up quite frequently where you have men on base and a chance to affect the game, whether in the first or ninth innings. Fortunately, there is an easy way to track them. There is a relatively obscure stat called OBI, or Others Batted In. Basically it is your RBI total minus how many HR you hit. Here are the top fifteen for 2006 (whole list found here):

Justin Morneau 96
Garrett Atkins 91
Lance Berkman 91
Ryan Howard 91
David Wright 90
Raul Ibanez 90
Ryan Zimmerman 90
Michael Young 89
Albert Pujols 88
Miguel Cabrera 88
Andruw Jones 88
Alex Rodriguez 86
Michael Cuddyer 85
David Ortiz 83
Derek Jeter 83

Travis Hafner is number 30 on the list with 75. But again, this is a counting stat, so we can’t really compare the two guys here. What we can do, however, is look at their OBI per plate appearance since we do have those numbers.**

David Ortiz: 686 Plate Appearances, 83 0OBI = 0.1711 OBI%
Travis Hafner: 564 Plate Appearances, 75 OBI = 0.1963 OBI%

So, Hafner drove in the men on base at a rate two and a half percent higher than Ortiz in 2006. Granted, this really doesn’t sound like a lot. But we really start to see a difference if we compare the OBI% to the rest of the league. Here are the top 15 in MLB for OBI% for batters with at least 400 PA:

Miguel Cabrera 0.2146
Brian McCann 0.2136
Lance Berkman 0.2136
Albert Pujols 0.2061
Justin Morneau 0.2047
Raul Ibanez 0.2036
Juan Rivera 0.2026
Michael Young 0.2023
Bobby Abreu 0.2021
Alex Rios 0.2012
Carlos Beltran 0.2011
Nomar Garciaparra 0.1973
Jose Reyes 0.1968
Travis Hafner 0.1963
Freddy Sanchez 0.1960

Hafner ends up 14th on this list. You need to scroll all the way down to number 51 to find Big Papi and his OBI%. Right above him are magnificent hitters such as Kenji Johjima and Marcus Giles.

Because the percentages of each players’ plate appearances that occured with men on base are so similar (Hafner at 50%, Ortiz at 51%), you can see how much more proficient Hafner was at driving in the runs he was given the opportunity to drive in.

If you’re so concerned with homerun totals, consider this: given the same number of plate appearances as Ortiz, Hafner’s home run rate would have given him nine more round-trippers in ‘06, or 51 for the year. Ortiz had 54 - that’s what we call pretty even.

And for all of you fantasy geeks out there like me, we can compare fantasy points in our Yahoo league vs. plate appearances.

Hafner - 733 points in 564 PAs = 1.30 points/PA
Ortiz - 864.5 points in 686 PAs = 1.26 points/PA

Again, it doesn’t seem like a big difference, but it can be. Given the same number of PAs as Ortiz, Hafner would have had 892 points last year (686 x 1.30). This comes out to 28 points ahead of David Ortiz and one point behind Ryan Howard for first overall.

Get some.

_________

** We will use PA instead of At-Bats because you could theoretically drive in someone with a walk which would count towards your PA but not your AB.

So, fantasy baseball is almost upon us and I am interested to hear from all of my compadres out there on their opinions of some things. I will start today with the most simplest of them all: Who are the top ten for this year?

Let’s start with some facts from last year. As some of you know, I play points league Yahoo fantasy (10 teams). In our league, the top ten players of 2006 were:
Ryan Howard
David Ortiz
Albert Pujols
Lance Berkman
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Beltran
Johan Santana
Garrett Atkins
Chase Utley
Alex Rodriguez

Accoring to ESPN’s 2006 Player Rater which rates a more traditional 5×5 rotisserie on a rated metric scale, the top ten players of 2006 were:
Johan Santana
Albert Pujols
Ryan Howard
Jose Reyes
Alfonso Soriano
Chris Carpenter
Brandon Webb
David Ortiz
Derek “oh captain, my captain” Jeter
John Smoltz

Here is another reference. The top ten from www.fantasysportscentral.com are as follows. They have their final rankings based on a dollar value for salary cap leagues:
Jose Reyes
Albert Pujols
Alfonso Soriano
Ryan Howard
Derek Jeter
Johan Santana
David Ortiz
Carlos Beltran
Matt Holliday
Carl Crawford

So there you have it; some similarities, some differences, some surprises (Garrett Atkins? John Smoltz?). It seems as though there are a common five that planted themselves in the top ten no matter what the format. Pujols, Howard, Soriano, Santana and Ortiz seem to have been the overall five most valuable last season in fantasy.

My question, then, becomes - who are the top ten this year? Will either of these lists stay consistent? Will those top five be that valuable again? What about some of the big names that are not on either of these lists such as Miguel Cabrera, Vladimir Guerrero, David Wright, and man-crush Travis Hafner?

Let me know what format you play/prefer and who you think will be top ten.

RK