From BaseballAlmanac.com:

“I’m not trying to be cocky, but I set such a high standard for myself. I’m not happy when I pitch seven innings and give up two runs and get a win.”

-Barry Zito

Well, then Barry Zito sure has not been very happy lately. The offseason’s biggest pitching free agent prize, who signed a seven year deal with the San Francisco Giants for over $120 million is struggling. There is just no other way to put it.

His 2007 numbers look very pedestrian to put it mildly: 9-11, 4.46 ERA, 116 Ks in 167.7 IP, 1.32 WHIP, and a .243 BAA. Quite a drop from his 2002 Cy Young numbers of 23-5, 2.75 ERA, 182 Ks in 229 IP, 1.13 WHIP, and .220 BAA.

So what happened in less than five years? Anything unusual? Why the decline? Zito is only 29, still in his prime (he won his Cy at age 24), and has moved to the better pitching league where he faces about 8.25 real hitters a game instead of 9 in the AL.

In fact, if we are using Zito’s “7 innings-2 runs-and a win” statement from above, he has only been happy on five days this whole season. Actually his best pitching of 2007 has been in the last three weeks; only four earned runs given up in four starts (but only one win), while dropping his ERA from 5.13 to 4.46.

Some relevant stats to look at and compare from 2002 to 2007 for Zito (click to enlarge):

Interesting things I take from this group of numbers are the following:

1. In every year since 2002, he has never bested his numbers in any of the following categories from that Cy Young season - ERA+, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, BAA, and LOB%

2. In 2002, he put up relatively low numbers for GB% (10% below his career number) and relatively high numbers for FB% (more than 7% above his career number). His LD% that year was a very average 19.8% (for some perspective, in 2006, the AL average LD% was 19.7%, and it was 20% in the NL). Are low groundball numbers and high flyball numbers the key to his success?

3. Not listed in the table, but worth noting is that Zito received 6.79 runs per game of support in 2002, third in the AL behind only David Wells of the Yankees and Derek Lowe of the Red Sox. In fact, in Zito’s five losses in 2002, the A’s scored a total of 10 runs for him.

Looking at all of this, was 2002 a perfect storm for the 24-year-old pitcher from Oakland with only one full year of MLB experience under his belt? From what I see, the numbers lean towards the answer being yes. We discuss a lot on this blog about the numbers behind the numbers. Wins and batting average and RBI are very popular, but what are the numbers and circumstances that cause those to happen? For Zito, a combination of incredible run support, the lowest numbers of his career across the board, and a team defense that was in the top 12 for the year probably led to a Cy Young award that year.

Consider, in the same year in the same league, Pedro Martinez had better numbers than Zito in ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, BAA, WHIP, and BABIP. But, a combination of more than a half run less of support and a team that ranked lower defensively than the A’s led to Martinez only having a 20-4 record, something that voters always use (along with teams making the playoffs) to determine their Cy Young tally. Another interesting note about Pedro’s season in 2002 - his team scored a total of three runs in his four losses.

So not only has Zito failed to reach or better any of those key statistical numbers from the 2002 season, but his run support has suffered as well. Zito’s run support from 2003 to 2007 looks like this: 4.62, 5.07, 5.16, 4.97, 3.76. None of those even coming within a run and a half of 2002 support. Sure does look like a case of everything coming together for one perfect season - and the rest of his career, he just been right around his career averages in all important categories.

But good for Barry Zito. He parlayed a Cy Young, a mythical but devastating curveball, and a laid-back, Southern California persona into a $120 million dollar contract from the Giants. So it’s not his loss for having those career numbers; it’s the Giants’ for not doing their research.