A lot of great stuff this week online from a baseball stat and sabermetric perspective. I don’t want to take too much time building it up, so I will just get right into the details.

The Great Clutch Project

I mentioned this a few weeks ago, concerning Tom Tango asking fans to join him in a battle in the clutch debate where he will pit his “good” hitters against the fans’ choice for “clutch hitters” to see if there really is a way people can see and perceive clutch. The stats he is using are his Leverage Index scores and wOBA (weighted on base average), so if you are not familiar with those, read up on them. You can find the summary of the project here, and Fangraphs will be running the season tally here for 2008.

Never thought I would see a Ginger/Mary-Anne and clutch/non-clutch analogy used, but I guess nothing should surprise me anymore.

Hardball Times OF Arms

John Walsh of THT reveals his new defensive metric to measure OF arms, something that has always been missing and that is sorely needed in the defense discussion that has escalated in the past few years. You can search by year on their stats page here, and there is a lengthy description of the methodology at this link. The stats for the OF arms goes back to 2004.

Richard Justice’s war with the stat guys

Local sports writer for the Houston Chronicle has the stats world up in arms from his reaction to a post by Mitchel Lichtman on Justice’s blog piece this week about bunting and how it is always a bad idea. Apparently, Justice has long been a target of some bloggers for his inability to look past emotion and personal feelings and look at the numbers. And the blogosphere just can’t get enough of all of this. And all of this from a couple of sentences about how bunting is always bad in the situation with which the Astros were faced.

For the record, I fall somewhere in the middle of what Lichtman and what Keith Law propose (you need to read all the threads to understand where that is). A manager has to make a yes/no decision in that moment, but his job should be to be as prepared as he possibly can with all the available data that will help him make an educated decision. The ones that are too close to call? Well, that’s why a managers are paid the way they are.

Lineup Analysis

This is not a new tool by any means, but something I have been messing around with this week that I recommend. Baseball Musings hosts a page that has a Lineup Analyzer put together by Morong, Arneson, and Armburst that allows you to put in any nine players with their OBP and SLG and it will construct the ideal lineup based on those numbers, and their calculated comparison and analysis of the two.

Here is the page, use it on your favorite team for this year or any year.

One of the local FM radio stations here in Houston is celebrating “Baseball Week” all this week, with baseball-themed interviews (including Jose Canseco and the guy who is auctioning off Barry Bonds’ 762nd home run ball and who sounds like he is perpetually stoned), Astros updates, and other various items. And, God bless ‘em, they are really trying. In fact, on Monday they posted a poll on their website that had the question, how many games will the Astros win this year?

So I figure this will look like most of these things I have seen before and have some options like less than 70, 71-75, 76-80, 81-85, etc. But that is assuredly not what I found. You had four options that looked like this:

1. 0-40
2. 41-80
3. 81-120
4. 121-162

Huh? I mean winning 40 or less or 121 or more - is that even possible? And of course a few real smart folks voted for those top and bottom two, but otherwise it was like 45% for number 2 and 45% for number 3. One of the more scientific polls ever created, if you ask me.

But that got me thinking. What would it really take for the 2008 Astros, or any team, to win 40 or less or 121 or more. So I decided to first look back in history. First, the worst teams in major league baseball history, by number of wins:

1. 1899 Cleveland Spiders - 20 Wins, 134 Losses
2. 1916 Philadelphia Athletics - 36 Wins, 117 Losses
3.  1962 New York Mets - 40 Wins, 120 Losses
4. 2003 Detroit Tigers - 43 Wins, 119 Losses

And now the best teams, by wins, in MLB history:

1. 1906 Chicago Cubs - 116 Wins, 36 Losses
2. 2001 Seattle Mariners - 116 Wins, 46 Losses
3.  1998 New York Yankees - 114 Wins, 48 Losses

Essentially, we have had three teams win 40 or less over a full season (though 2 of those teams played 154 game seasons), and no team has ever reached 120 wins. But I did not want to stop there; I wanted to look at how futile or magnificent a team would have to be to reach these win milestones. First, the 40 win or under plateau.

Using our trusty Pythagenpat formula again, we can work backwards to find out how many runs a team would have to score and allow to only win 40 games.

Winning 40 out of 162 gives you a winning percentage of roughly .250 or 25%. So let’s say for arguments sake you have an average park, pitching staff and defense, and your team allows exactly the average number of runs in a season to their opponents. From 2001-2007, the average runs allowed by a major league team was 768, so we will start with that number.

With the formula being to first solve for the exponent, using: X=((rs+ra)/g)^.285. With X being the exponent, you then calculate rs^X/rs^X+ra^X = Winning Percentage. Working backward, and sparing you the math, a team that allowed 768 runs (thus being an average team in that department) would need to score about 415-420 runs to fall right into that .250 winning percentage.

For some context, no one this decade has had fewer than the 574 runs the Dodgers scored in 2003. So we are talking about more than 150 runs less than that team, assuming an average runs allowed total. 420 runs scored only means 2.59 runs per game. Now I don’t want to steer you in the wrong direction here. In the dead ball era, this number was routinely matched and even bested. Your NL record for fewest runs is 371 by the St. Louis Cardinals, led by the great Red Murray and his .282 batting average and 62 RBI. For the AL, the record for fewest runs is 380 by the 1909 Washington Senators, captained by Bob Unglaub and his .265 average with 41 RBI.

Now for the other side. To win at least 121 games would mean a winning percentage of 75%. We will use our same 768 runs to define our average defense/pitching staff/park. Working backwards, using the same formula as before, we can find that a team that allowed 768 runs over a 162-game season would have to score right at 1300 runs (give or take 10 or so on each side) to equal a .750 winning percentage.

This number certainly is more than any team has ever scored in one season in major league baseball, and would equal more than eight runs per game for 162 games. Although, it doesn’t outpace the historical leaders in runs scored by one team by that much. In the AL, the 1931 New York Yankees (did you think it would be anyone else?) scored 1,067 runs, led of course by Ruth and Gehrig. More surprisingly, in the NL, the 1894 Boston Beaneaters scored 1220 runs, led by an amazing nine players who batted .320 or better - and five of them had better than 100 RBI. Of course that was a different time and game, so just in the context of this decade, no one has scored more than 978, the 2000 Chicago White Sox, still more than 300 runs behind our 121-win team.

So certainly both of these situation are unlikely to happen this season, or in any season in the near future. Seeing what a team would have to achieve to accomplish these makes it seem as though we may not see either happen the way the game is played today.

Using a relatively new tool on BaseballReference.com known as the Batting Order Outcomes, I thought it might be fun to go back and look at last season and construct the ultimate lineup, spots 1-8, using each team’s production in each of those spots as our data.

The way this page works is you can put in any team and any spot in the lineup (1-9) and BR will pull up a page with stats on how that team performed in that season at that spot in the lineup, with all PA included throughout the season.

So, I can quickly go back and see that in 1972, The Boston Red Sox had an OPS of .625 in the 7th spot, with the famous Doug Griffin getting the majority of the plate appearances that year.

Using OPS as our gauge, I will lay out the ultimate 2007 batting order from across the Majors. While the batting order page has incredible splits and breakouts of stats per month, player, inning, relative score, and more, the stats used are pretty basic, so OPS is probably our best bet for this exercise.

Starting with the leadoff position, here is the best from each spot in 2007, with a couple of my random comments associated with each:

1. Florida Marlins - .897 OPS

This one makes sense especially when you consider that Hanley Ramirez was given 706 of the 780 plate appearances for the Marlins in the leadoff spot in ‘07. May and June were actually not kind to Ramirez and the Marlins’ leadoff spot; the OPS totals for those two months in that spot were .738 and .694, respectively. But the next three months had totals of 1.094, .875 and .944 - so he certainly finished strong. In comparison, Ramirez’s two counterparts, Rollins in Philly and Reyes in NY, both contributed to .869 and .772 totals for their teams. Ramirez is expected to move to third in the order in 2008, so don’t look for the Fish to repeat in this spot.

2. St Louis Cardinals - .870 OPS

This one mildly surprised me. No Derek Jeter, Kevin Youkilis, Placido Polanco, or even Hunter Pence took this spot. Rather, the combination of Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel give the Cardinals the top spot. Certainly helping the cause, Ankiel slugged .603 batting second. Also contributing to the solid .870 number were the OPS numbers by Scott Speizio and Skip Schmaker, who both had an OPS over 1.000 in 131 total plate appearances.

3. Boston Red Sox - 1.034 OPS

No surprises here. David Ortiz ate up 89% of the 751 total plate appearances in the third spot. I have heard some people say that Ortiz had a down year last year because his homeruns and RBI were down from the previous two seasons, but that argument is truly ridiculous. His batting average, OBP, OPS+, Runs Created, and Runs Above Replacement were all the best of his career. His 52 doubles made up for “only” 35 HRs - a number which will likely trend upward in 2008. And in September, during the playoff push, Ortiz’s OPS was a mere 1.355.

4. New York Yankees - 1.069 OPS

Again, no surprises at this spot. Of 744 2007 plate appearances in the #4 spot, A-Rod had 700 of them, with OPS of 1.081. In the few times someone else actually hit in this spot, Jorge Posada, Miguel Cairo and Hideki Matsui all had an OPS of at least 1.000 as well. And quite possibly even more impressive, the Yankees who had the number four spot come up with RISP 243 times, totaled an OPS of 1.127.

5. Toronto Blue Jays - .939 OPS

I probably could have given you a dozen guesses to this one, and you wouldn’t have said the Blue Jays. But there they are - with big Frank Thomas leading the way with his .935 OPS. Actually, while Thomas had the most PAs in that spot, he only accounted for about a third of the total plate appearances. Some of the other notable names hitting in that spot: Aaron Hill, Troy Glaus and Matt Stairs totaled OPS scores of .946, 1.145 and 1.003, respectively. All of these numbers represent significant increases over their seasonal totals.

6. Colorado Rockies - .908 OPS

This spot makes sense as well, with Brad Hawpe demanding 73% of the PAs for the Rockies in 2007. And while Hawpe’s OPS in 2007 in that spot was an incredible .918, it is severely overshadowed by Ryan Spilborghs who had an OPS of 1.212 over 74 PAs in the six hole. In another interesting note, the Rockies only had one month all season (April) where they did not slug at least .500 from the 6th spot in the lineup. Perhaps not surprisingly, that was the month they had a losing record.

7. Philadelphia Phillies - .850 OPS

This spot in the Phillies’ lineup was distributed pretty evenly amongst Abraham Nunez, Jayson Werth, Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs, and Aaron Rowand. Except for Nunez, all other batters had an OPS of at least .847 in the seven spot, with Rowand leading the way a 1.070 over 87 plate appearances. One entertaining and interesting note here looks at when throughout the course of the game the Phillies really produced in the 7th spot. In the 1st-6th innings, the Phillies had an OPS of .885 in the seventh spot, but that number drops to .783 from the 7th-9th innings.

8. Pittsburgh Pirates - .800 OPS

I could probably give you 25 guesses and you would not have picked the Pirates in this spot. I certainly thought it would be Robinson Cano or some other powerhouse offense, not the team that was 12th in the National League in runs scored. But with Jack Wilson and his .825 OPS getting exactly half of the plate appearances, the Cesar Izturis’s, Jose Castillos and Jose Bautistas of the world could not drag down the total number below .800. The second half of 2007 is what tells the story for the Pirates earning this spot - as a team the OPS in the 8th spot after the All-Star Break was an amazing .899.

In an exercise like this, the Magglio Ordonezes, Matt Hollidays and Miguel Cabreras unfortunately get stuck on the outside. But I certainly think that a team composed of this lineup would score an astonishing amount of runs. But just how many? Well, using the basic Runs Created formula, we can come up with a good guess as to just how many.

Formula: ((H+BB)*(1B+(2*2B)+(3*3B)+(4*HR)))/(AB+BB)

Total estimated Runs Created: 1024

In context, the team with the most runs in 2007 were the Yankees with 968 and the average across MLB was 777.

So in other words, we have quite an offensive machine on our hands, even including batters from the Pirates, Cardinals and Blue Jays.

We finally finish things off this series with the surprise division of 2007, the one that produced two playoff teams and the eventual NL champion. A couple of major moves and a lot of player signings and extensions highlight this division’s offseason.

Arizona Diamondbacks

12-14-2007: Acquired RHP Dan Haren and RHP Connor Robertson from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for LHP Brett Anderson, LHP Dana Eveland, LHP Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter, OF Aaron Cunningham, and OF Carlos Gonzalez; Acquired RHP Chad Qualls, RHP Juan Gutierrez, and OF Chris Burke in exchange for RHP Jose Valverde.
This one day pretty much sums up the major transactions during this offseason for the D’Backs. Beyond a one-year salary here or the club picking up the option there, this one day reflects the new face their team.
We’ve already examined the quality of prospects the D’backs gave up in this deal and what it did for the Oakland farm system, but how good a pitcher did they get in return? At age 26/27 last year, Haren took a sizable step up in performance, something you might expect from a pitcher of his age that has plus pitches. In fact, Haren posted career bests in all of the following numbers last season: wins, ERA, Ks, ERA+, K/9, BAA, LOB%, PRAA, VORP, Win Shares and WARP. All these while posting a BABIP that is almost exactly the average for pitchers.
Like I mentioned with Johan Santana, I want to look at Haren and Santana and their new NL context in an article hopefully before the season starts, but here are Haren’s number against the NL during interleague in his career:
7-2, 2.93 ERA, 61 Ks, and a line against of .219/.285/.362 in 12 games and 83 innings. Not too bad.

In the Valverde deal, the D’Backs received two players that will be on their opening day rosters. One is Chris Burke, the former Astros’ uber-prospect. Why he didn’t exactly work out as planned is still somewhat a mystery, but it probably has to do with a number of factors such as inconsistent playing time, having to learn three different positions when they were not benching Biggio, and never being able to consistently take a walk and get on base (something the Astros needed in their one and two hitters). Burke for his career has a 0.41 BB/K ratio in 1155 PA.
Qualls is currently slated to pitch the 8th inning with Brandon Lyon being named the closer. A careful look at Qualls’ numbers over his career show some interesting details that perhaps Arizona should consider. Qualls’ numbers against him over 521 career 8th inning plate appearances are an average .281/.344/.400 with a 112 OPS+ against. In the 9th inning, over 126 PAs, Qualls’ number show .189/.274/.297 with a 63 OPS+ against. What do these numbers really tell us? Not much. But if you are like me and believe that the more innings a pitcher throws, the larger the sample size becomes, the more he begins to show his “true self” and what type of pitcher he is. After four years, we have a pretty good idea of what kind of 8th inning pitcher Qualls is. Conversely, these are Lyon’s numbers in the 8th and 9th innings over his career:
8th - .251/.297/.405 with 78 OPS+ over 483 PA
9th - .293/.338/.457 with 102 OPS+ over 328 PA
So maybe there should at least be some consideration given to those two switching roles. Or better yet, you could actually use your best reliever whenever the score calls for it in the late innings, not just the ninth? Oh, who am I kidding…

Colorado Rockies

11-29-2007: Re-signed C Yorvit Torrealba to a two-year contract with a mutual option for 2010.
This deal, worth $7.25m was to keep their starting catcher in the fold for perhaps the next three years. The Rockies already have a potent offense batting in front of him, so his bat is not crucial to their success, but Torrealba is the very definition of average when it comes to catchers. Below is a comparison of the 2007 averages for MLB catchers compared to Torrealba’s 2007 numbers:

2007 catchers     Stat     2007 Torrealba
.255                       AVG         .255
.321                       OBP         .323
.393                       SLG         .376
.244                       EqA         .235

But compared to catchers like Brian Schneider and Jason Kendall, he is a steal.

1-18-2008: Signed OF Matt Holliday to a two-year contract.
There is not much you can say about Matt Holliday negatively when it comes to his past two offensive seasons. He is simply a masher - and everything, his Avg, OBP, SLG, VORP, RC, everything - was in the top ten in the NL in 2007. Like I said, it’s hard to find something to criticize, but that’s why I am here. Please don’t misunderstand, Holliday is an amazing player, and at 28, should continue to be an amazing player for years. But, there are some numbers that could predict a little bit of a dropoff for Holliday in the near future.
In 2006, Holliday was fourth in the NL with a .351 BABIP, a very high number - one that could lead the league some years. He also had a HR/FB ratio of 18.2% placing him in the top 15 in the NL in that category also. So, one would expect in 2007 that those numbers would reduce and even out some to the norm. Well, that’s not what happened. In 2007, Holliday raised his BABIP to .377 (best in the NL) and his HR/FB rate, even though it dropped a little to 17.9%, put him sixth in the NL for that number. Even though Coors Field tempers these numbers a little bit and does strange things with them, the increase or plateau he now sees in those categories can certainly not continue forever. Combine these numbers with the fact that he has also been in the top 25 for GB% in the NL two years running, and you could see a slight decrease in production (FB and GB both have rates of turning them into outs of over 70%).

1-23-2008: Signed SS Troy Tulowitzki to a six-year contract.
The defining move of the Rockies’ offseason, and in my opinion, one of the best signings in years relative to what a team had to pay for the actual value of a player. Tulowitzki, who is 23 this year, signed a six-year deal worth $31m - but one that is EXTREMELY backloaded. Troy will not make more than a million bucks a season until 2010.
Averaging $5m a year for a SS who was top-five in the NL in 2007 in HR, RBI, Avg, OBP, SLG, RC, RC/27, VORP, WPA, and Win Shares is downright amazing. Plus, he will only be 29 at the end of this deal. 29!
In all of this, we haven’t even talked about the defense yet. Tulowitzki was the best shortstop in the National League last year - as shown by his winning John Dewan’s Fielding Bible award for 2007 with an amazing +35, 20 more than any other NL SS. Last year, Tulo was number four in the NL with an RZR of .861, which is impressive enough, but he also led in NL in reaching balls out of his zone with 87. Your other great offensive shortstops in the NL (Reyes, Rollins and Ramirez), averaged 56 last year.

2-11-2008: Signed INF Garrett Atkins to a one-year, $4.3875 million contract, avoiding arbitration.
Although Atkins is not near the defensive player Tulo has become (only .613 RZR, -29 in the Fielding Bible, and -17 RAA for Atkins), this is still a relative steal when comparing Atkins to other NL third basemen. In fact, you can realistically make the argument that only David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, and Ryan Braun were better offensive NL 3B last season (with perhaps Aramis Ramirez in the argument, too). With Braun now in the OF, Jones another year older and Cabrera switching leagues, this 28-year-old has a shot to be a top-3 3B in his league this year. And the other five players I just mentioned average over $8m in salary this year, and that includes Braun who will make less than a million in 2008.

Los Angeles Dodgers

12-12-2007: Signed free agent CF Andruw Jones to a two-year contract.
Besides signing a new manager and a slew of new coaches, this was the one LA move of any note this offseason. I wondered quite a while back what would actually happen with Jones after this uncharacteristically bad 2007. The power went away, any on-base ability went away, and a number of other factors culminated in his poor showing in 2007. As I suspected, one of the key things I examined in that post turned out to hold true all year long. Jones’ FB% was the highest of his career - 43.9%, a sure sign he was trying to homer his way into a big contract. But all that hacking didn’t pay off as his HR/FB ratio of 13.4% was by far the lowest of his career. So a greater number of fly balls with less of them going for homers means a whole lot of outs compared to his numbers in the past.
On the other hand, his defense is still stellar. He was a close second in the Fielding Bible awards this year, with a +24, but still leads all CF over the past three years by a wide margin (Jones is at +63, while the next closest is +46). Also, his .921 RZR was first among CF in the NL, and second among all OF to only Eric Byrnes (.923).
So a two-year $36m deal ($12m of which is signing bonus), isn’t quite what he hoped for, especially seeing what Torii Hunter received, but he will take it and do this whole song and dance again in a couple of years.

San Diego Padres

12-12-2007: Signed RHP Jake Peavy to a five-year contract with a club option for 2013.
Not only the 2007 Cy Young, but also the NL pitching triple crown winner (ERA, Ks, Wins). Only 26 on opening day this year, Peavy already has three seasons of at least 13 wins with an ERA under 2.90 in his career. That may not sound too impressive, but Peavy is the first person to have three such years by age 26 since Jose Rijo in 1988-1991. Throw in three seasons where he also had at least 215 strikeouts and you are looking at the NL’s most dominant pitcher until someone else proves otherwise.
His 2007 was so dominant, in fact, that he led the NL in wins, ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, VORP, and WPA. He was second in LOB% with an amazing 78.3% and only four qualifying pitchers gave up fewer homeruns than Peavy.
The first two years of his deal are worth $14.5 m, while the last three are worth $52m - but for a pitcher who will only be 31 when the contract is up, this was a must-do for the Friars.

12-15-2007: Acquired OF Jim Edmonds and cash from the Cardinals in exchange for minor league 3B David Freese.
Every relevant offensive statistic that you can think of has declined four years in a row for Edmonds, who is thought to be the Padres’ new CF. We’re talking cumulative numbers, rate stats, ratios, anything. But most importantly, his games played has decreased every year. Now almost 38, his years of flying around the outfield have caught up with him - so much so that his fabled defense in CF has failed him for years. Two years running, Edmonds has been negative in the Runs Above Average category used to measure defensive proficiency. Edmonds also ranked in the bottom five in the Fielding Bible awards in 2007, again measuring a negative value.

12-26-2007: Signed RHP Mark Prior to a one-year contract.
From the Associated Press:

“Mark Prior didn’t experience any pain in his surgically repaired right shoulder during his first spring training workout with the San Diego Padres”

Just wait, Padres. Just wait.

2-12-2008: Signed INF Khalil Greene to a two-year contract.
Greene’s offensive numbers the past three seasons:
2005  56 RC  95 OPS+
2006  54 RC  97 OPS+
2007  83 RC  100 OPS+

Greene’s defensive rankings among NL SS the past three seasons:
2005 - 14th in RZR - 16th in OOZ
2006 - 7th in RZR - 14th in OOZ
2007 - 5th in RZR - 5th in OOZ

Did Greene just dramatically improve offensively and defensively over the course of one season? Time will tell and we will need this season and more to judge how he fares in both, but Greene is clearly beginning to develop on both sides. He has been in the top ten in the Fielding Bible Awards for two years in a row and his SLG percentage was his highest ever, although at the expense of the lowest OBP, LD% and highest FB% of his career.

San Francisco Giants

12-1-2007: Declined to offer arbitration to OF Barry Bonds
And now spring training has started and he is still waiting. That Hall class of 2012 with him, Clemens, Biggio, Sosa, et al is going to be very interesting to watch.

12-12-2007: Signed OF Aaron Rowand to a five-year contract.
This is the Giants’ projected lineup for this season:

Dave Roberts LF
Kevin Frandsen 3B
Randy Winn RF
Bengie Molina C
Aaron Rowand CF
Ray Durham 2B
Dan Ortmeier 1B
Omar Vizquel SS

Last year, Rowand earned 23 Win Shares by himself. The other seven giants in the lineup earned 67. Rowand earned more than a third of the total of the rest of the batters just by himself.
Also last season, Roward accumulated 98 RC by himself; the rest of the lineup - 419. Again, Rowand by himself with more than 20% of the total of the rest of the lineup. So can Rowand come in and almost single-handedly bring the Giants’ offense to a level of at least mediocrity? In 2007, the Giants had the following ranks in each of these categories:

OBP 27th
AVG 27th
Runs 29th
SLG 30th
OPS 30th
Total bases 30th

The answer is, probably not. You see, the Giants achieved these figures with Mr. Bonds. His totals in the Win Shares and Runs Created departments were 21 and 92, respectively, compared to 23 and 98 for Rowand. So has the offense improved? Probably not. Has the defense improved? Most definitely with Bonds gone and Rowand in center. Has the pitching improved? The Giants sure hope Lincecum and Cain take a step forward and Zito improves, but it looks to be a long season by the bay in 2008.

So there you have it. While admittedly leaving out some analysis of some of the deals that took place after I wrote up the division (namely the Bedard deal), these are the major and not-so-major moves for the 2008 season.

I will get back into more of the stats stuff with my next post.

I have written a short piece for the Spring Training 2008 website hosted by Blogs by Fans about the Astros. You can check it out here, and also click on any of the team logos for a preview of rosters, rotations, and key spring training battles. Spend a few minutes there if you have a chance.

Also, check out any of the previous five posts on offseason MLB transactions from the American League and two of the three NL divisions. The NL West will round out the series later this week.

I promise this will not be as long as the NL Central post from a few days ago. But then again, the NL East has made some pretty significant moves this offseason, so maybe I will retract that. Let’s jump right in,

Atlanta Braves

11-16-2007: Acquired OF Josh Anderson from the Houston Astros in exchange for RHP Oscar Villarreal.
The Braves were faced with quite a challenge when Andruw Jones left for the Dodgers. How do you replace a perennial Gold Glover and a huge bat (at least in 2005 and 2006) in center field? Well rookie Anderson will be fighting another offseason pickup for that CF spot, but he certainly won’t be contending for any Gold Gloves or slugging titles - Anderson had a lower SLG than OBP last season, although his line was an impressive .358/.413/.403 in his first 67 major league at bats.

11-19-2007: Signed LHP Tom Glavine to a one year contract for the 2008 season.
Likely his last year, 42-year-old Glavine returns for one more go around with the club with whom he had so much success. Here is an interesting stat about Glavine: he shows up in the Cy Young voting 6 times between 1991 and 2000, winning it twice. But in the years he shows in the voting, he has never been lower than third place.
Glavine joins a rotation that now consists of John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Chuck James, and Mike Hampton if he stays healthy. And while Atlanta still has a competent lineup including Teixeira, Chipper, Francouer, and McCann, I can’t help but wonder if Glavine wishes he was still part of the Mets’ rotation now that they are favored in the National League.

1-14-2008: Acquired OF Mark Kotsay from the A’s in exchange for RHP Joey Devine, RHP Jamie Richmond, and cash considerations
The other candidate for the CF spot in Hot-lanta. Diaz and Francouer have the other spots sewed up, so whomever does not start out of Anderson and Kotsay, the other becomes the primary backup at all three positions.
Kotsay never had an OBP over .332 in his last three years in Oakland, so that was definitely not going to cut it there. The interesting thing, though, about Kotsay is that while his Avg., OBP, SLG, BB%, BABIP, and RC/27 have all been at or below league average over the past two years, his K% remains as great as ever. Kotsay almost never strikes out, and he has never had a K rate that was worse than league average. In 2004, when Kotsay had a career high 673 PAs, he only struck out 70 times, for a K% of 11.8%. In perspective, only seven players in 2004 had at least 670 PAs and 70 or less strikeouts that season. Maybe that’s why the A’s loved him.

1-24-2008: Signed RHP Rafael Soriano to a two-year contract.
The new closer of the Braves signs on after a stellar 71 games in 2007 where he saved nine in limited ninth-inning duties, but posted an ERA of 3.00, a WHIP of 0.861, and an ERA+ of 142. His career K/9 has been pretty good, his career BB/9 is great - but watch out for his BABIP numbers this year. In 2007 Soriano’s was .208, about 90 points below the average for pitchers.

Florida Marlins

12-5-2007: Acquired RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP Dallas Trahern. LHP Andrew Miller, and OF Cameron Maybin from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for LHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera.
One of the two biggest moves of the MLB offseason, and the one major move by the Marlins unless you consider signing Dallas McPherson or Luis Gonzalez major moves.
Once again I will go back to Baseball Prospectus’ Future Shock series to look at the prosepects now residing in the Marlins’ farm system. After this trade - getting rid of two stars they would not have been able to afford anyway - Maybin and De La Cruz wind up 1st and 10th, respectively in Florida’s system, with Trahern just missing the cut. Scouts call Maybin the next best hope we have of seeing a true five-tool player. His cumulative minor league line reads .316/.409/.523 with 14 HR and 25 SB in just 91 games.
The other gem of this trade, although no longer a prospect, is pitcher Andrew Miller. Miller, a 23-year-old with devastating stuff has drawn Randy Johnson comparisons as a tall, lanky, LHP with dominating pitches. Evidence of this can be seen in the famous game he pitched in July 2007 against the Red Sox. In winning that game, Miller pitched seven innings, gave up only three hits and struck out six as a 22-year-old rookie.
Both Maybin and Miller will be immediate fixtures in the Marlins’ lineup - for about $2m combined.

New York Mets

11-19-2007: Re-signed 2B Luis Castillo to a four-year contract.
To be honest, I just don’t know what to think about this contract. I mean, the only other 2B on the Mets’ roster is Ruben Gotay, so I guess they had to have somebody, I just slightly question four years for Castillo. Since 1999, Castillo has been an offensive player who always gets on base (.368 career OBP), scores runs (never less than 72 since 1999), steals bases (325 careers SB), and who has always worked on not striking out (21.6% K rate in 1998 to 8.2% in 2007). And on the defensive side, Castillo ranked in the top ten for all MLB 2B in John Dewan’s Fielding Bible plus/minus rankings from 2004-2006. So he is doing his two jobs correctly.
It’s just that he is 32 now, and the offensive numbers he is known for like OBP, BB%, and LD% have all been in slight decline the past three years.

11-20-2007: Acquired C Johnny Estrada from the Brewers in exchange for RHP Guillermo Mota.
And then didn’t offer him a contract, making him a free agent. He will pop up again soon.

11-30-2007: Acquired OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider from the Washington Nationals in exchange for OF Lastings Milledge.
In this deal, the Mets get two starters for their 2008 squad and the Nats get a former uber-prospect that didn’t turn out to be quite what the Mets hoped for. More on that later.
For the Mets, Church and Schneider will replace Shawn Green and Paul Lo Duca. Church and Schneider’s combined RC/27 last year was 9.3, while the combined number for Green and Lo Duca was 9.2. So we can call it a wash on offense. They will be hitting 7 and 8 anyway.

2-2-2008: Acquired LHP Johan Santana from the Twins in exchange for OF Carlos Gomez, RHP Deolis Guerra, RHP Philip Humber, and RHP Kevin Mulvey.
Everyone now understands two things about this trade from all the attention it has gotten the past 10 days: 1. that the Mets got some sort of a steal of a deal, especially in that they got to keep their number one rated prospect, and 2. Santana is the best pitcher alive. So there is no need for me to focus on either of those things.
Let’s try to put Santana in the NL context. The simple way to do it is to look at how Santana has fared against the NL in his career. Well, it isn’t pretty for the rest of the Senior Circuit. Santana has started 24 games against the NL and is 16-4 with a 2.27 ERA and 191 Ks in 182.2 innings. Wow.
In the next few days, I plan to do some more in depth research actually trying to place Santana in real life NL situations. For example, since Santana has now replaced Tom Glavine in the rotation, what would have happened if Santana had pitched Glavine’s starts in 2007? Stay tuned…

Philadelphia Phillies

11-7-2007: Acquired RHP Brad Lidge and INF Eric Bruntlett from the Astros in exchange for OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo, and RHP Geoff Geary.
For the past four seasons, these are Brad Lidge’s ranks for K/9 among all MLB pitchers with at least 50 IP for the season:
2004 - 1st
2005 - 1st
2006 - 2nd
2007 - 6th
There are two ways to look at those numbers. One is to say that he has obviously been declining in his strikeout numbers; Lidge’s most potent weapon, for the past few years, maybe as a result of fatigue, maybe recurring psychological factors from the Pujols homerun, etc. Or, you can say, even with his K/9 rate at its lowest in four years, it was still 11.82 K/9 for the season. I am sure the Phillies are basing the trade on the latter. The only thing that seems to have changed for Lidge the past two seasons since that homerun is his BB/9 numbers, which have been in the 4.03-4.32 range instead of the 2.85 and 2.93 it was in ‘04 and ‘05. This actually may be a factor of the homerun, not wanting to put balls in the middle of the plate in the tight 8th- and 9th-inning pressure situations. Prediction: he will do no worse than Brett Myers did as the Phillies closer in 2007.

11-10-2007: Signed LHP J.C. Romero to a three-year extension, with a club option for a fourth year.
I didn’t know we had reached the point where LOOGY’s are getting three and four year guaranteed contracts; especially worth $12m and potentially $16m overall.
We will have to wait to pass judgment until we see which version of Romero the Phillies are going to get. He is always dominant against left-handers, posting a .202/.298/.303 line against them in 2006 and a .208/.333/.312 line in 2007. But against right-handers he is more of a mystery. In 2007, he was an outstanding .198/.350/.328 against them, but in 2006 - .382/.455/.578 against right-handed batters.

1-31-2008: Signed 3B Pedro Feliz to a two-year contract with a club option for 2010.
Possibly three seasons for a third baseman with a career .288 OBP. In perspective, Adam Everett has a career OBP of .299.

Washington Nationals

11-30-2007: Acquired OF Lastings Milledge from Mets in exchange for OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider.
Maybe only 19 minor league games was a little too fast for young Lastings. His minor league numbers of .342/.395/.575 screamed to get him to the show, but his demeanor and attitude once he was there shouted back that he might need some more seasoning and maturity. Well he is the Nats’ problem now, and he immediately becomes the team’s projected CF on opening day. Numbers like .272/.341/.446 in your first 59 MLB games is not horrible by any means - but a talent like him being traded so quickly is surely a red flag.

12-11-2007: Signed C Paul Lo Duca to a one year contract.
So the Mets and Nats wind up switching starting catchers, just not through a trade. I wonder how many times that has happened throughout history? This would be a steal if we were about to start spring training in 2001. Now, Lo Duca is just old.

1-31-2008: Signed C Johnny Estrada to a one-year contract.
“….wait, didn’t we just sign another catcher the Mets let go? Well, can we train one of them to play shortstop? They both hit better than Christian Guzman…”

One more post to go with this series. The goal is to have it up by the time pitchers and catchers start their workouts.

Being about three weeks from the start of Spring Training, most of the deals and signings have been completed, with the exception of the Santanas and the Bonds out there who are still looking and wondering where they will be in two months.

We have already gone through the AL side of things, looking at each teams major (and a few minor) deals and signings. Today starts the Senior Circuit, beginning with the largest division in baseball, the NL Central.

Chicago Cubs

11-26-2007: Re-signed free agent RHP Kerry Wood to a one-year contract
With some combination of Zambrano, Hill, Lieber, Lilly, Marquis, and Marshall rounding out the rotation, Wood is obviously being brought back for the bullpen. Wood has played in only 47 games the past three years due to injury, starting 14 of them. In 2003, Wood finally rounded into form the way many expected he would after his 1998 Rookie of the Year campaign including the game where he threw a one-hitter and struck out 20 Astros. IN ‘03 he became an All Star, going 14-11 with a 3.33 ERA and 135 ERA+. Then the injuries started, and from 2004 to 2006, the numbers became merely mediocre for such a talent. Finally returning from injury last year to come out of the bullpen in 22 games, Wood had an ERA+ of 140 (his highest ever), and began to get consideration for the closer role. With Dempster likely out of that role this season, it may be between Howry and Wood come Spring Training.

12-12-2007: Did not tender a 2008 contract to RHP Mark Prior, making him a free agent.
And here is the other Cubs phenom to succumb to injury woes after such a promising start to his career. Prior was the #2 overall pick out of USC in 2001, and after a very strong rookie year in 2002, the Cubs thought they had hit the jackpot in 2003 after an outstanding 18-6 season with a 2.43 ERA (two runs lower than the lgERA), a 1.103 WHIP, 178 ERA+ (2nd highest in the NL), 245 Ks, and a PRAR of 104. Then, after a mental breakdown in the 2003 NLCS, the injuries started up, and Prior has pitched inn just 57 games in the past four seasons, and none last year.
On December 26, Prior signed a one-year contract with the Padres worth $1m, but includes $4.5m in incentives.

12-19-2007: Signed OF Kosuke Fukudome to a four-year contract.
This four year deal was in the neighborhood of $48 million dollars which immediately makes Fukudome the fourth highest paid position player on the team.
From ESPN: Fukudome “has 192 homers with a .305 batting average and .397 on-base percentage over nine seasons with the Chunichi Dragons,” but he also had elbow surgery in August, something the Cubs must not be worried about too much if they signed the 30-year-old for four years. Fukudome apparently also told the Cubs he is most comfortable batting third, but with Soriano, Lee and Ramirez in that lineup, I just don’t see that happening.

1-16-2008: Signed RHP Jon Lieber to a one-year contract.
If Dempster and Marshall are both going to be in the rotation, this move makes a little less sense than it already does. Lieber, while he did win 20 games in 2001, will be 38 the first week of the season and he has had an ERA+ that is only perfectly average the past four years. The past two years, his ERA has been above the adjusted lgERA with an average WHIP around 1.375.
The Cubs hope these numbers suffice for a #4 or 5 pitcher moving from one of the premier hitter’s parks in the league (Citizen’s Bank Park).

Cincinnati Reds

10-31-2007: Exercised the 2008 contract options on 1B Scott Hatteberg, OF Adam Dunn and C Javier Valentin.
I want to discuss Dunn here, who will receive $13 million from the Reds after they exercised his 2008 option, the last year on his contract. Dunn is an amazing power hitter. He now has at least 40 HR in four straight seasons. Off the top of my head I can’t think of anyone else who can claim that feat. Despite the number of strikeouts, his OBP has always been amazing because of the number of walks he takes (over 100 for four straight years). But if I were the Reds - and I’m not, they are way smarter than me - I just would not pay Dunn $13 million to play in left field.
In 2007, Dunn’s Batting Runs Above Average was 32 - so 32 runs better than your average LF. In the same season, his Fielding Runs Above Average was -18 or 18 runs worse than your average LF. If you go by the common perception of 10 runs earned or lost for a player equals a win or loss, the Reds are losing two extra games per year by leaving Dunn in left.
People say “move him to first to make up for it!” Hold on there. For his career, Dunn’s Fielding Rate (where 100 is average, and it is measured over 100 game periods) is 91 in 830 games in left. In 108 games at first, his Fielding Rate is 92. Both numbers come in well below average.
Dunn belongs in the AL, plain and simple.

11-28-2007: Signed free agent RHP Francisco Cordero to a four-year contract with a club option for 2012.
This contract is for four years, $48m, with a club option for year five (not to mention a full no-trade clause for the first two years). Do you think if he had opened 2007 with 30 or 35 straight saves instead of only 22 they would have given him 50 or 60 million?
These contracts for relievers who only pitch 60-80 innings a year are getting a little ridiculous, right? If you do want to look at just saves, we can - after the 22 straight, he was only 22 for 29 the rest of the year. But looking at some deeper numbers, I can try and show you why $48m is just not worth it. And we don’t have to go any farther than the Reds to do it. Let’s compare Jared Burton (of the Reds’ bullpen) and Cordero from last year:

Cordero: ERA 2.98, ERA+ 150, HR/9 0.57, AVG. .225, WHIP 1.11, BABIP .341, LOB% 73.4
Burton: ERA 2.51, ERA+ 185, HR/9 0.42, AVG. .188, WHIP 1.16, BABIP .234, LOB% 75.2

Cordero will make $8.5m next year, while Burton will make about $400K. Now I am not saying that Burton should be handed the job based on one season of great work, I mean Cordero has 177 career saves under his belt, but I think smarter decisions need to be made when deciding where to spend almost $50m.

Houston Astros

11-7-2007: Acquired OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo and RHP Geoff Geary from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Brad Lidge and SS Eric Bruntlett.
Costanzo, a great 3B prospect, went away in another trade, so this inevitably left the Astros with Bourn and Geary for Lidge (Bruntlett was just a role player throw-in). Obviously the Astros decided to give up on Lidge, who they felt (wrong or right) that he never recovered from the 2005 NLCS Pujols homerun in game 5. We will discuss Lidge when we get to the NL East, but now we must look at Bourn, the Astros’ probably opening day CF. Bourn is the fastest guy the Astros have seen in a long time, but as he will be hitting leadoff, he must be judged as a true leadoff hitter - and not just against the Astros’ former failures at that spot the past three years (Biggio and Taveras). His OBP of .348 in 119 games as a rookie last year falls right in line with his numbers in the minors, as does his SLG of .378. His BB/9 rate of 9.8% is a little low, and the Astros desperately need him to learn patience at the plate. The Bill James, Marcels, and PECOTA weighted means projections all have Bourn listed at less than 300 PA for the year, so that doesn’t bode well for the projectionists thinking he will keep his job. The other options are Reggie Abercrombie and Darin Erstad, so it definitely doesn’t get any better.

11-16-2007: Acquired RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Braves in exchange for OF Josh Anderson.
Out of all the Astros’ moves in the offseason, this one might be the best for Houston in terms of what they gave up and got back. Anderson was a great hitter in his limited role in 2007, and Lord knows the Astros could use some backup OF help, but with Lidge, Qualls and Wheeler all gone, the bullpen is in a desperate situation. Villareal has a career 3.71 ERA and 121 ERA+. He has pitched over 75 innings three times, and over 90 twice. He looks like the new 8th-inning man in Houston

12-2-2007: Signed free agent 2B Kazuo Matsui to a three-year contract.
This deal is worth $16.5m for a 32-year-old second baeman. I guess that’s better than a 41-year-old second baseman like 2007. Matusi is the latest marginal player to parlay a good season or two in Colorado to a large contract somewhere else. One day, someone is going to catch on that these park-inflated numbers have a very hard time carrying over to other, less hitter-friendly parks. You name an offensive stat, and Matsui had his career high in it last year: AVG, OBP, R, SB, BABIP, RC, or whatever. And when you reach your career highs at age 31 while only playing in 104 games, you know something must be up.
Matsui is, however, a very competent 2B, with career numbers all on the plus side for any defensive metric you can find. This deal might work out in the Astros favor as long as they keep Matsui out of the two hole like is being discussed by Cooper and Wade, and drop him down to about 7th behind all the bigger bats.

12-12-2007: Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, LHP Troy Patton, RHP Dennis Sarfate and 3B Mike Costanzo; Did not offer a 2008 contract to SS Adam Everett, making him a free agent.
Let’s pretend for a minute that there is no chance of the Astros having to play 25, 50, or even 162 games this year without Tejada, and examine the trade as the Astros intended it when it actually happened. Anyone who thinks the Astros are getting the same SS who was the MVP in 2002 or the 150-RBI man from 2004 needs to rethink things, and not just because of steroid allegations. Still, Tejada’s 162 game averages for his career look like .287/.344/.477 with 181 hits, 27 HR, and 108 RBI. That is a stout offense for any NL shortstop, even if they do play in the NL east. Comparing Tejada to the previous SS regime, it’s not even close. From 1999 to 2006 in Tejada’s amazing games played streak, the lowest number of Runs Created for one season was 94. Everett, on the other hand, has never had more than 60 RC in a year.
Comparing the defense of the two, where you could argue Everett makes up ground; the numbers for RZR were .871 for Everett and .830 for Tejada in 2007. For FRAA, Everett is at 26, while Tejada comes in at -12 for the past three years. There is your big difference, but Tejada’s bat doubles the difference when comparing offensive runs.

12-14-2007: Acquired RHP Jose Valverde from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for INF Chris Burke, RHP Juan Gutierrez and RHP Chad Qualls
Losing Brad Lidge and getting Valverde, the NL leader in saves for ‘07, no problem right? Well maybe, maybe not. You see, if you look up VORP for relievers and total WPA (where relievers’ numbers are telling because the best make their livings in late inning pressure situations), you won’t find Valverde’s name in the top 20 of either of those lists for MLB last year.
Yes, Valverde has some good peripheral stats in his career, namely 11.46 K/9 and a .209 BAA, but the numbers like 3.84 BB/9 and .81 GB/FB ratio do scare me somewhat.

Milwaukee Brewers

10-30-2007: Declined the club option on OF Geoff Jenkins.
Thus ending the reign of the current longest-tenured player on the Brewers’ roster. The OF is crowded now with Cameron and Braun moving there, so someone had to go.

11-20-2007: Acquired RHP Guillermo Mota from the New York Mets in exchange for C Johnny Estrada.
Mota has not pitched less than 55 innings since 2001, so he is certainly a dependable reliever to eat up some innings. But the numbers tell the tale of his performance. His ERA has increased every year since his career year of 2003 with the Dodgers. Could it be that his 76 games and 105 innings pitched that year taxed his arm too much? Perhaps. His ERA+ has been decreasing as well - from 204 in 2003 to 74 last year. But all the Brewers had to do was give up their starting catcher to get Mota. And who did they get to fill that spot….

11-28-2007: Signed free agent C Jason Kendall to a one-year contract with a vesting option for 2009.
There was actually a time when Kendall was considered a really good player. Despite the fact that he never has hit for power (although he reached double digit HR three times), Kendall used to be an on-base machine, reaching .370 seven times in his first nine seasons, and passing .410 three times. Last year, that number was a career low .301 with the A’s and Cubs, and he only had 44 Runs Created, more than 20 lower than his career low to that point. But he still winds up with a job year after year even though he no longer hits for average, gets on base, hits for power, steals bases, or scores runs. Milwaukee is just the latest suitor in a desperate catcher situation.

12-10-2007: Signed RHP Eric Gagne to a one-year contract.
The Brewers sure do have a lot of turnover in the closer department, don’t they? Kolb, Turnbow, Cordero, and now Gagne. Gagne had probably the most dominant three year run of any closer in history, saving 52, 55, and 45 games - but what is less known is that he threw exactly 82.3 innings in all of those years as well, likely killing his arm. Gagne missed all but 16 games over 2005 and 2006 with various injuries and surgery. In 2007, his first year back, Gagne was again dominant in his half-season with Texas, but downright awful in the other half with Boston. Let’s see how Gagne responds coming back to the NL, more specifically the perpetually weak NL Central.

1-14-2008: Signed OF Mike Cameron to a one-year contract with a club option for 2009.
The new center fielder. Well, he will be the new center fielder beginning with game number 26

Pittsburgh Pirates

2-5-2008: Signed INF Freddy Sanchez to a two-year contract, with a club option for the 2010 season.
This is by far the most significant move of the offseason for the Pirates, if that tells you anything about the state of that ballclub.

St. Louis Cardinals

12-15-2007: Traded OF Jim Edmonds to the Padres for Minor League 3B David Freese.
It seems like father time finally caught up with Edmonds, and the Padres, needing a CF, took a chance on the soon-to-be 38-year-old. More on his numbers when we discuss the Padres, but I just wanted to point out that no matter how old he is, I am not sad to see Edmonds leave St. Louis. He was always an Astros killer. From the walkoff extra inning homerun in game six of the 2004 NLCS to his game-saving catch in center the next night to the walk he drew in game five of the 2005 NLCS to bring Pujols to the plate in that fabled at bat vs. Brad Lidge; I always hated him, but I always admired him. I don’t really buy into clutch at all, but if there was ever one guy who I would say was clutch against Houston, it was this guy. One of the two or three best highlight center fielders of my generation.

1-14-2008: Acquired 3B Troy Glaus from the Blue Jays for 3B Scott Rolen.
We talked about this a little bit when we dissected the Blue Jays, but essentially it was a trade of a potential problem for a potential problem. Rolen and his inability to get along with LaRussa and Cardinal management for Glaus and his chronic injury woes. Only somewhat surprisingly, Glaus has hit over .262 once in his entire career - but his OBP/SLG are still a great .358/.500 for his career. Glaus’ 162-game averages of 36 HR and 101 RBI would rank him as a top-5 offensive third baseman in the NL, if he can stay healthy. Since 1999, Glaus has never had an OPS+ below 113 while only playing one of those years in a park that favored hitters over pitchers - his one season in Arizona in 2005.

1-21-2008: Signed C Yadier Molina to a four-year extension with a club option for a fifth season.
Let’s hope his next four years (ages 25-28, mind you) are better than his first four, where his line reads .248/.304/.349. Those numbers are pulled down somewhat by his horrible 2006 season where he was one of the worst offensive players in baseball, but he has to have a season where he earns more than an 85 OPS+, something he hasn’t done up to this point. Molina’s evident value at this point in his career is certainly his defense - he threw out 50% of basestealers in 2007, and the Cardinals are banking on that to continue. And who knows, maybe they just got Molina in case they make the playoffs. In 29 career playoff games, Molina’s line is .316/.356/.453.

And that’s all for the NL Central, my friends. The NL East will be up in a few days. Geez, this is more than 3,000 words. I need to get a life.

Wrapping up the AL now with the four-team AL West. In this, the division in baseball with the fewest teams, some of the biggest moves of the off-season have taken place. But, the balance of power seems to have stayed where it was at the end of the 2007 season, with two teams standing out and two teams struggling to reach the next level.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

11-19-2007: Acquired RHP Jon Garland from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for SS Orlando Cabrera and cash.
We have discussed the trade from the White Sox perspective already, so now for the Angels’ side. In my opinion, this trade does two things to the Angels’ rotation. 1. It gives them a capable fourth starter behind John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Jered Weaver. And 2. It bumps Ervin Santana down to sixth on their rotation, meaning they will not have to suffer the horrible home/road splits he puts up year after year. In case you forgot, I will give you three simple numbers to remind you of his amazing, almost mind-blowing splits:
Home ERA - 3.27 Road ERA - 8.38
Home OPS - .696 Road OPS - 1.005
Home BABIP - .293 Road BABIP - .360
But, this move also leaves Erick Aybar at SS instead of Cabrera. Fortunately, the Angels picked up another big bat this offseason, because Aybar had an OBP and SLG% last year under .300 in almost 200 PA.
Garland moves to a team that should have a bit more of a stable offense than the White Sox had the past three years (the White Sox scored about 180 runs fewer in 2007 than in 2006), at least helping his run support somewhat.

11-21-07: Signed free agent OF Torii Hunter to a five-year contract.
The past two seasons, Hunter has been fortunate enough to bat just behind Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau of the Twins, two very capable and outstanding hitters. Fortunately for Hunter, he really won’t experience too much of a dropoff when he lines up for the Angels batting just behind Chone Figgins, Gary Matthews, and Vladimir Guerrero.
The Angels will have Hunter locked up for his age 32-36 seasons, so there is a bit of concern there, but not as much concern as there should be with Hunter’s offensive trends. In 2002, Hunter had a fantastic year where his line was .289/.334/.524, he made the All-Star team (remember the catch on Barry Bonds?), and was 6th in MVP voting. He had a bit of a down year in 2003, but from 2003 to 2007, Hunter’s numbers in RC/G, OPS+, and EqA increased every single year, culminating in a top-15 finish in MVP voting again last year. A five-year span of that happening is very impressive and, I would guess, quite uncommon. That is something that simply can not keep happening over the next five years now that Hunter is leaving his “prime” age range. Hunter also never, EVER walks (career .324 OBP), showing that he is a free swinger, something that also doesn’t bode well for him growing older unless he learns more patience.

Two other quick notes about Hunter’s deal:
Assuming either Matthews or Garrett Anderson will be the DH, that essentially eliminates Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera from the lineup. Willits was fantastic as a rookie last year, with a line of .293/.391/.344, And while he will never be the power threat Hunter can be, Willits walked 69 times in only 136 games - 19 more walks than Hunter has ever had in a season in his career.
For all the hype you hear about Hunter’s defense and all the catches he made running into that big garbage bag in the Metrodome, Hunter’s fielding runs RATE (imagine it like OPS+ where 100 is average, so someone with a RATE of 110 saved 10 runs in the field over what the average player would) over the past five seasons have been 94, 102, 92, 104, and 99. In other words, less than average for five years.

Oakland A’s

12-14-2007: Traded RHPs Dan Haren and Connor Robertson to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for LHPs Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter and OFs Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez.
Everyone is familiar with the A’s and their moneyball reputation and BillyBeane’s philosophy of getting as much as you can for the least amount of money possible, so this move interested me from the Oakland perspective. I have referenced a couple of these articles in previous posts, but I want to go back to Baseball Prospectus’ Future Shock series looking at the top minor leaguers in each system. From this article on December 17, just after this trade, you can see that Oakland’s top 11 prospects were:
Daric Barton
Carlos Gonzalez
Brett Anderson
Trevor Cahill
Chris Carter
James Simmons
Aaron Cunningham
Henry Rodriguez
Andrew Bailey
Corey Brown
Jermaine Mitchell
In other words, four of Oakland’s new top-11 prospects came from this trade with Arizona. Daric Barton will be their 1b on opening day this year, barring something catastrophic, and the rotation still consists of Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin, Justin Duchscherer, and Leo DiNardo. All in all, not a bad way to significantly improve the farm.

1-3-2008: Traded OF Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for LHP Gio Gonzalez, RHP Fautino De Los Santos and OF Ryan Sweeney.
And then came this deal - another player who would soon demand quite a bit more money, so the A’s dealt him for more prospects. So another update of the top 11 prospects was needed. You can find it here, or here is the new list:
Daric Barton
Carlos Gonzalez
Fautino De Los Santos
Brett Anderson
Gio Gonzalez
Trevor Cahill
Chris Carter
James Simmons
Aaron Cunningham
Henry Rodriguez
Andrew Bailey
So while this deal leaves Oakland with an OF of Emil Brown, Chris Denorfia, and Travis Buck, if you are counting at home, six of their top 11 prospects are direct results of these two deals. And some people wonder if Billy Beane really is a genius or not…

1-17-2008: Signed RHP Huston Street to a one-year contract.
A must-do move for the A’s to lock up a 24-year-old closer for at least another year who was the 2005 ROY, and who has never had a WHIP higher than 1.09 or and ERA+ lower than 134. Avoiding arbitration was also another factor.

Seattle Mariners

12-12-2007: Acquired Minor League INF Tug Hulett from the Texas Rangers in exchange for 1B Ben Broussard and invited Hulett to Spring Training.
I documented some of this last year, but the Mariners must really be counting on a huge Richie Sexson rebound to get rid of Broussard and his capable bat. Sexson can’t get any worse or any more unlucky than he was in 2007 (.217 BABIP), but Mike Morse is now the only legitimate backup at first. For more than $15m, the M’s better hope Sexson can rebound.

12-20-2007: Signed RHP Carlos Silva to a four-year contract with a mutual option for 2012.
Not to the extreme of an Ervin Santana, but Carlos Silva has quite the home/road split for his entire career. His ERA, OPS allowed, BABIP line at home for five years is 3.76/.736/.292 while it jumps to 4.93/.849/.326 on the road.
A lot is made of what a great pitcher’s park Safeco field is in Seattle, and how it will help Silva. But in reality, Safeco and the Metrodome both ranked a 96 on multi-year park factor in 2007, so those two parks are equally advantageous to the pitcher. What Silva has to do is keep his incredible walk rate where it has been the past few years, when he was in the top 5 in the AL from 2004 to 2007, including leading the AL with a .43 BB/9 ratio in 2005.

*And as of now, the Mariners are also actively trying to trade for Baltimore’s Erik Bedard. More on that if it happens.

Texas Rangers

12-12-2007: Signed OF Milton Bradley to a one-year contract; Acquired 1B Ben Broussard from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Minor League INF Tug Hulett
Say hello to the new RF and 1B for the Texas Rangers. With no Mark Teixeira or (insert name of any Rangers’ many ‘07 RF), someone had to be found to man those positions. We have talked in the Mariners section and in a previous post about Broussard’s capabilities last season, but we will have to wait and see if he can stay productive over 550 PA or more.

And on Milton Bradley. First of all, the bad things:
He has played in more than 101 games once in his career
He has played for five teams in seven seasons
He can disrupt a clubhouse better than anyone
He is a bad guy - and I just don’t like him.

And now the good things:
Posted an OPS+ over 100 each of the last five seasons (when he played)
He does take walks and get on base (lowest OBP over the past five years was .350 in 2005, corresponding to the year when he had his highest batting average)
At least he is playing for another contract, whether with the Rangers or someone else

12-21-2007: Acquired OF Josh Hamilton from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RHP Edinson Volquez and Minor League LHP Danny Herrera.
And the Rangers new CF is the infamous Josh Hamilton, he of so many drug and addiction problems, but with so much talent the Reds took a shot on him last year and Texas does the same this year. Finally sober and cleaned up, Hamilton, as a rookie, had 56 RC in limited playing time due to injury. That’s roughly the same number Luke Scott, Moises Alou, and Matt Diaz produced in 2007. Hamilton’s line was also .292/.368/.554 - good numbers for anyone, much less a rookie.
Hamilton is 27 now, but has been given the starting job in Texas, so watch what he does this season assuming he doesn’t have the recurrence of injury problems that he had last year. This is just an all-around good story for a former #1 draft pick who everyone gave up on. And to think, when he was drafted, the debate was whether he or Josh Beckett would turn out better. Hamilton certainly has a ways to go…

1-11-2008: Signed LHP Eddie Guardado to a one-year contract
No more Gagne and no more Otsuka means the Rangers needed to find someone for the closer’s role. For a two year stretch, Guardado was THE MAN. Unfortunately, those two years came in 2002-2003, not in 2006-07. In his two best years, Guardado had 86 combined saves and an ERA+ of 155. But in the last two years with Seattle and Cincinnati, Guardado saved 13 games, has an ERA+ under 100, while being hit with multiple injuries. His 2007 ERA was 7.24 with an equally awful WHIP of 1.463.
Now 37, Easy Eddie will compete with C.J. Wilson for the closer’s role on the Texas staff. Wilson has better peripherals all around, especially against left handers, but he might relegated to the left-handed specialist role if Guaradado proves he still has any gas in the tank.

1-17-2008: Signed RHP Jason Jennings to a one-year contract
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU200707290.shtml
I’m just warning you, Rangers fans…

We will come back and start the National League side of things next week.

We continue now with part two of six in our looking and evaluating transactions since the end of the World Series in October; helping you, the rabid baseball fan keep track of it all. One major trade in this division in on the verge of being completed, so we will dissect that one when we get to that team.

On to the AL East:

Baltimore Orioles

10-23-2007: Activated LHP Erik Bedard, RHP Kris Benson, OF Jay Gibbons, LHP Adam Loewen and RHP Chris Ray from the 60-day disabled list.
This note is important only because Bedard and Ray are both coming off injuries, Ray’s being Tommy John surgery so he will probably miss most, if not all, of the 2008 season. I guess you could classify Ray as a middle of the road closer, a bit below average. The strange thing is, Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker both had much better numbers in the ERA+ department. Is this a situation of addition by subtraction? Ray had four blown saves and two other losses in half the season last year.
Bedard, on the other hand, should be completely ready for spring training, but who knows if that spring training will be with the Orioles. Despite missing more than a month at the end of the season, Bedard was fourth in MLB in strikeouts and 13th in VORP. At only 29, and presuming he is healthy with that dominating curve, Bedard should be in line for another fabulous year. Bill James projects him at an ERA of 3.69 and 207 Ks.

12-12-2007: Acquired LHP Troy Patton, OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, RHP Dennis Sarfate and nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo from the Astros for SS Miguel Tejada.
According to this Baseball Prospectus article of how AL deals have affected the lists of top prospects in each system, the Orioles all of a sudden added the fifth ranked prospect and 11th ranked prospect in their minor leagues with Troy Patton and Mike Costanzo. That is a lot to get in a deal, but they are giving up one of the top slugging shortstops around (more on the Astros side when we look at NL). Add Matt Albers, a potential #3 starter as well, and it looks like the Orioles made out on top with this deal. Luke Scott looks like he may be another Jay Gibbons and he was not part of the Astros’ plans with Hunter Pence moving to right, so he will fight for playing time with the Orioles.

Boston Red Sox

11-2-2007: Red Sox exercised the 2008 contract options on RHP Julian Tavarez and RHP Tim Wakefield
The Red Sox will keep exercising their year-to-year option on Tim Wakefield until his arm falls off or until he dies. I am convinced of this.

11-6-2007: Signed RHP Curt Schilling to a one-year contract
Some didn’t think Schilling would come back one more year. Some didn’t think the Red Sox would sign him to another deal. But facts are facts; Schilling still accumulated 16.22 Batting Runs Above Average and had an ERA of 3.87 as a 41-year-old. And in case you forgot - he was 3-0 in the 2007 postseason.

11-20-2007: Re-signed 3B Mike Lowell to a three-year contract
Let’s look at some facts. Mike Lowell will be 34 when the season starts and when this new contract begins. Mike Lowell had an average of .320 last year with 120 RBI. Mike Lowell has never been within 15 points of either of these numbers for any season in his career. Last year, Mike Lowell had an OPS of .879. Mike Lowell’s park-adjusted OPS (taking him out of Fenway and putting him in a neutral offensive park) was .781. In 2007, Mike Lowell had a BABIP of .342, in the top 20 in the AL. In 2007, the four guys who usually hit in front of Mike Lowell all had BABIPs in the top 25 in the AL (Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, Ramirez). Last year, Mike Lowell was lucky.
That being said, I can’t really blame the rich Red Sox for re-signing Lowell. His swing seems to be tailor-made for Fenway. Many of those doubles off the wall last year are probably fly outs in the Marlin’s stadium in Miami. So I don’t doubt he can be great again at least for one more year in Boston. But just for fun some day, look at his home/road splits in ‘07. It’s pretty ridiculous.

12-1-2007: Offered arbitration to RHP Eric Gagne and RHP Mike Timlin and declined to offer arbitration to RHP Matt Clement, C Doug Mirabelli, INF Royce Clayton, INF Eric Hinske and OF Bobby Kielty.
Gagne is gone so Timlin is the only one of this bunch that is back from the 2007 champs. I know I am just nitpicking now for a very complete team, but they better find some bench players besides Alex Cora.

New York Yankees

11-29-2007: Re-signed free agent C Jorge Posada to a four-year contract.
Let’s continue our lesson on BABIP, shall we? Jorge Posada makes Mike Lowell look like your average player when you consider BABIP. Posada’s number of .389 in that category was fourth in the majors, and he has only had one year where he was within 30 points of that number! Two other numbers stick out from Posada’s 2007 as well; his average of .338 and 171 hits. He has never had numbers even close to those two in his career.
And all of this for a catcher who will be 36 this year. Four years for a catcher who was lucky this year? This signing I don’t particularly like.

12-1-2007: Declined to offer arbitration to RHP Roger Clemens, C Jose Molina and LHP Ron Villone.
I bet the Yankees are thanking their lucky stars right now Clemens decided not to come back.

12-12-2007: Signed LHP Andy Pettitte to a one-year contract.
Nothing wrong or particularly shocking about this deal. I just imagine that the Yankees were not counting on Pettitte admitting two weeks later that he did, in fact, use steroids in years past. Now they have to carry around that baggage and Andy will have it weighing on his mind all year.

12-13-2007: Signed 3B Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year contract.
…worth $275 million, that is.
Listen, we all know who A-Rod is, what he can do, what he can’t do in the playoffs, and that he will probably break Bonds’ HR record one day. So let’s not focus on what he has done, but what he is projected to do, at least for this next year, when he will turn 32.
Right now, I have access to four prominent projection systems for 2008. I do not subscribe yet to Baseball HQ and the PECOTA projections have not been released as of January 14. But the four I can see (Bill James, Marcels, CHONE, and ZiPS) have A-Rod broken down this way in 2008:

The average for those numbers in 2008 is .300/.405/.574, 42, 129, 17. Of course, A-Rod will probably not play until the end of this contract, unless there is some great record he is trying to break. He will theoretically have broken the HR record long before that time, and unless he is going for 4,000 hits, I don’t see any reason why he would keep playing past 40 or so. That being my opinion, I don’t know that this is such a bad deal for the Yankees, who can obviously afford it. $61 million is due on the last three years of the contract (the three that would most likely not be in effect), and no portion of the signing bonus is due after the 7th year either.
Also in the contract are clauses where bonuses kick in should be break certain milestones (i.e. Mays’ HR numbers, Ruth’s, Aaron’s , Bonds’, etc). And these milestones always bring in revenue from attendace, merchandise, TV, etc. They just better pray that they never want to trade him, because the deal has a full no trade clause and no one on earth could take on that contract as it stands now.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

11-14-2007: Activated OF Rocco Baldelli from the 60-day disabled list.
Don’t worry, he will be back on by the time the season starts.

11-30-2007: Signed RHP Troy Pervcival to a two-year contract.
Percival had not pitched in more than a year and a half when St. Louis grabbed him up last year. All Percival did was go 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 8.10 K/9.
Percival now becomes the closer for the Rays, and he will try to add to his 324 career saves, almost all of which were earned with the Angels from 1995-2004. Percival will turn 39 this year - but has almost two years less wear on his arm than other pitchers his age. In those 34 games last year, Percival did have the lowest LD% of his career and the highest GB% of his career. Use these numbers to temper your expectations when looking at what Percival can do with the Rays.

12-14-2007: Signed free agent OF Cliff Floyd to a one year deal with a club option for 2009.
Long gone is the .300/25/90 outfielder from so many years ago with the Marlins and Mets. Floyd has played in more than 113 games once since 2002 - and his best years seem to be fading away in the rearview mirror. This move was surely made to solidify the bench in case Baldelli or Jonny Gomes do not work out in RF.

1-11-2008: Invited 3B Evan Longoria (and others) to Spring Training.
No, not that Longoria. Considered one of the top bats in the minor leagues, Evan will have a shot to win the Rays’ 3B job this spring. Over two stops in the 2007 season, Longoria posted a .299/.402/.520 line with 26 HR and 95 RBI in 136 games.

Toronto Blue Jays

12-14-2007: Signed SS David Eckstein to a one year contract.
Got a one year deal because the Jays are wise enough to realize this is a player in steep decline. Offensively and defensively.
On defense, Eckstein rated .816, .844, and .841 from 2004-2006 in Revised Zone Rating. In 2007, he rated .783, fifth worst in the majors.
On offense, Eckstein’s Runs Created numbers and rank in the National League from 2005 to 2007 look like this:
2005: 106 Runs Created - 1st in NL
2006: 61 Runs Created - 8th in NL
2007: 58 Runs Created - 14th in NL
Unfortunately for Eckstein, he is a dying breed. Teams wants a SS who is a marginally good defensive player but who can produce tons of runs on offense. Eckstein is not either of those, so he will fight for the SS job on a mediocre team when he was once the sparkplug for two World Series winners.

1-14-2008: Acquired 3B Scott Rolen from St. Louis for 3B Troy Glaus.
How about we swap our perpetually hurt third baseman for your perpetually hurt third baseman? Rolen has missed at least 20 games for four straight years while Glaus has missed at least 45 games in three of the past five years. Will Carroll analyzes this trade very well in this article on BP, and says the most significant factor in this trade might be Glaus coming back to playing on grass instead of artificial turf, something that always contributed to his ankle and foot problems.
Except for Rolen’s fantastic 2004, Glaus has been the better slugger when both are healthy, but Rolen has soundly beaten Glaus in all defensive metrics, so you decide which you prefer. When it comes down to it, Carroll may be right; this trade might benefit both teams because it offers the players a chance to change something that they have needed for a while: Glaus’ injuries caused by playing on turf and Rolen’s continued feud with manager Tony La Russa.
Both teams hope a change of scenery leads to a change in the luck department when it comes to injury.

So there’s the AL East in a nutshell. We finish out the AL with the AL West in a few days.

Since a week after the 2007 World Series ended, we have seen a fury of player movements. Drops, deals, signings, and salary negotiations have been rampant the past three months. As a matter of fact, in my quick glance at everything, it looks like the Red Sox and Dodgers are the only teams that have not made a trade since the season ended. So how do you keep track of it all, and what does it all mean for next year? Well, that’s why I am here…

In what will be a six-part piece, I will go through each division and touch on the major (and some minor) moves each team has made since October and try to provide a little bit of analysis as to what it does for each team going forward and looking at 2008.

In the last post, I discussed specific projection systems that you can now find online or in print. So I won’t get into a lot of making predictions about how players or teams will perform, but rather try to look at the impact each move will have on the upcoming season whether positively or negatively. Some of it will be from a sabermetric perspective, while some of it will just be one man’s opinion, and everything else in-between.

So let’s going alphabetically, beginning with the AL Central.

Chicago White Sox

11-7-2007: Agreed to terms on a one-year contract with Juan Uribe
This signing became irrelevant when the White Sox made their next move. Uribe will come off the bench in 2008.

11-19-2007: Acquired SS Orlando Cabrera and cash from the Angels for RHP Jon Garland
Remember all of the White Sox who had outstanding years in 2006? Jermaine Dye, AJ Pierzsynski, Paul Konerko, and Joe Crede? Well, all of them regressed back to the mean last year and the White Sox suffered because of it. Trying to pack some more punch into the lineup, the Sox added a shortstop who was 5th amongst AL shortstops in ‘07 for VORP and 4th in RC. The White Sox rotation is now left with a hole that will more than likely be filled by Gavin Floyd, who started 10 games last year, who had a VORP of 2.4, which is actually higher than their number four probable, John Danks. But Floyd also had an ERA+ of only 90.

11-20-2007: Designated OF Scott Podsednik for assignment
Finally! Sure, Podsednik could single-handedly win you a steals title in Rotisserie when he was was healthy four years ago, but he has been a sieve on the offense for more than two years (OBPs of .330 and .299).

11-28-2007: Signed RHP Scott Linebrink to a four-year deal
Linebrink goes to a bullpen that already has Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton as options, so Chicago hopes Linebrink will give them a solid 7-8-9 inning rotation a la Qualls-Wheeler-Lidge that worked so well for Houston for one year. At age 30, though, the only question is are they getting the Linebrink of 2004-05 (ERA+’s of 181 and 210) or 2006-07 (113 both years), when he was more average. Follow this closely, especially in the final two years of the deal.

12-3-2007: Acquired OF Carlos Quentin from Diamondbacks for a minor leaguer
Only interesting because this follows the same pattern as the Uribe signing. Picking up a player and then acquiring a better player at the same position. Quentin will also be on the bench after a promising start in ‘06 and then a miserable ‘07. He plays the same position as…

1-3-2008: Acquired OF Nick Swisher from Athletics for Gio Gonzalez, Fautino de los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney
Swisher has to come to Chicago to play left field because he is not supplanting Konerko at first, Thome at DH, or Dye in RF. The former darling of Billy Beane has drawn walks like a madman the past two years, but he lost 40 points in SLG last year and he strikes out a ton. Still, his VORP was over 31 last year and he should fit quite nicely in a lineup with Thome, Konerko, Dye, and Cabrera.

Cleveland Indians

11-20-07: Signed RHP Masahide Kobayashi to a two year contract with club option for 2010
Gotta be honest, I don’t know much about this guy. He did lead the Pacific League in saves in 2005 and became the only player in that league’s history to record seven straight 20-save seasons. With Borowski manning the 9th innings, you can’t ever have enough help, I guess. They didn’t need to really touch the offense anyway.

Detroit Tigers

10-29-2007: Acquired SS Edgar Renteria from the Braves for RHP Jair Jurrjens and OF Gorkys Hernandez
When the decision was made to move Carlos Guillen to first to better protect his health, a quality SS had to be found, because Neifi Perez was not going to cut it (and yes, he is still on their roster). Renteria was actually quite amazing last year despite missing more than 30 games due to injury. His .332/.390/.470 line in ‘07 was one of the best for NL SS, and he was 5th in the NL for SS in RC despite the time he missed. Sadly, though, he was only the fourth best SS in his own division. The scary thing is, if Renteria doesn’t bat 2nd in the lineup, he will probably bat 7th. More on that later.

11-12-2007: Acquired OF Jacque Jones from Cubs for INF Omar Infante
Jones will be the likely starter in LF for the Tigers on opening day. Wouldn’t it be great if all of our favorite teams had a player like Jones batting 9th in the lineup? Man, the Tigers lineup is stacked next year.

11-30-2007: Signed LHP Kenny Rogers to one-year contract, designated 1B Chris Shelton for assignment
Remember when Shelton had something like nine homeruns in the first 13 days of the 2006 season and had an OPS that was close to 2? Yeah, he really is nothing like that player at all. Good luck with the Rangers, Chris.

12-5-2007: Acquired LHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins for RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP Dallas Trahern, LHP Andrew Miller, C Mike Rabelo and OF Cameron Maybin
By far the biggest trade so far this offseason. The Tigers gave up a whole lot, but also get a bundle back in return, especially in Cabrera, perhaps the best under-25 bat in the majors. Let me put it this way: take any overall cumulative, encompassing offensive stat you want - VORP, RC, OPS, WPA, EqA, BRAA, whatever - Cabrera was top 12 amongst all major leaguers in all of them. And he will only turn 25 next year.
Willis has unfortunately been heading in the opposite direction lately since his fabulous rookie campaign in 2003 and second place Cy Young finish in 2005. In the past three years, his strikeouts have dropped from 170 to 146 while his WHIP has risen from 1.134 to 1.597 in the same timeframe. His BABIP the past three years has risen from .289 to .329 so he has been a bit unlucky lately, and his move to an even larger ballpark won’t hurt - although the potent AL lineups might.
More will be said about the Marlins side when we get to that point, but the Tigers did have to give up Baseball America’s 6th best prospect for the 2007 season. And four of the five guys who were ahead of Cameron Maybin are now regulars in MLB. Maybin could be the Marlins’ CF for the next 12 years if they decide to pay him.

Kansas City Royals

12-6-2007: Signed OF Jose Guillen to a three-year contract
Is it just a coincidence that Guillen just signed a three-year contract and his maturity level is also that of a three year-old? But past personal and social problems aside, Guillen has put together some solid years in the past, including last year with a .290/.353/.460 line. Guillen will be 32 next season and PECOTA currently only projects him at EqA’s of .263, .255, and .258 over the next three years, but he may get a chance to drive in some runs in a lineup with Mark Teahen, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and John Buck.

1-3-2008: Signed Hideo Nomo to a minor league contract with spring training invitation
Is this guy still alive? Nomo last pitched at age 36 in 2005 when he started 19 games for Tampa Bay and posted an ERA of 7.24 and ERA+ of 60.

Minnesota Twins

10-11-2007: Activated LHP Francisco Liriano from the 60-day disabled list.
Who knows if he will actually pitch and be effective coming off Tommy John surgery and a layoff of over a year, but this now 24-year old pitcher blew everyone away in 2006, going 12-3 with an ERA of 2.16 and an ERA+ of 207!!! That really starts to mean something when you consider 100 is average. No decision has been made as to when he will start throwing or where he will even begin the 2008 season, but the Twins now desperately need Liriano in the rotation when Santana leaves. They will be left with guys named Bonser, Baker and Slowey - and that’s it.

11-13-2007: Acquired Craig Monroe from the Cubs for a player to be named.
I think I was next on the Twins’ depth chart to play CF after Torii Hunter left, so they had to sign someone to play the position, even an OF with a -2.4 VORP and .204/.291/.347 for the Cubs in 2007 (VORP with the Tigers was -15.7).

11-28-2007: Traded RHP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett and RHP Eduardo Morlan to TB for OK Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie.
After the club got rid of Lew Ford and Jason Tyner, there were no viable LF available on the roster, so the Twins take a chance on a very talented, but volatile player. Young actually played in every game in 2007 and posted 13 HR and 93 RBI. Bill James predicts better numbers across the board for Young, projecting a .301 Avg, 15 HR, 89 RBI, and 15 SB.

12-13-2007: Signed SS Adam Everett to a one year contract.
and
12-14-2007: Signed 3B Mike Lamb to a two year contract with club option for 2010.
The Astros’ left side of the infield for much of 2007 moves over to Minnesota after the overhaul in Houston. Both are expected to win starting jobs and both will be asked to do what they have become known for - Lamb to be a competent left-handed bat in the middle of the order and Everett to continue to be the best defensive SS in the majors. Everett will be 31 this season, so a slowdown may be coming in the next couple of years, but as long as they don’t count on him for his bat, you know what you are getting. Lamb’s line in 42 career PAs in the Metrodome is only .243/.317/.348, but that is hardly a big enough sample size from which to draw any conclusions.

All of these moves and the biggest one for the AL Central may not have even happened yet. When Johan Santana is traded, we will go back and look at the shockwaves that the deal causes across MLB and specifically for the Twins.

AL East will be up in a few days.