A lot of great stuff this week online from a baseball stat and sabermetric perspective. I don’t want to take too much time building it up, so I will just get right into the details.

The Great Clutch Project

I mentioned this a few weeks ago, concerning Tom Tango asking fans to join him in a battle in the clutch debate where he will pit his “good” hitters against the fans’ choice for “clutch hitters” to see if there really is a way people can see and perceive clutch. The stats he is using are his Leverage Index scores and wOBA (weighted on base average), so if you are not familiar with those, read up on them. You can find the summary of the project here, and Fangraphs will be running the season tally here for 2008.

Never thought I would see a Ginger/Mary-Anne and clutch/non-clutch analogy used, but I guess nothing should surprise me anymore.

Hardball Times OF Arms

John Walsh of THT reveals his new defensive metric to measure OF arms, something that has always been missing and that is sorely needed in the defense discussion that has escalated in the past few years. You can search by year on their stats page here, and there is a lengthy description of the methodology at this link. The stats for the OF arms goes back to 2004.

Richard Justice’s war with the stat guys

Local sports writer for the Houston Chronicle has the stats world up in arms from his reaction to a post by Mitchel Lichtman on Justice’s blog piece this week about bunting and how it is always a bad idea. Apparently, Justice has long been a target of some bloggers for his inability to look past emotion and personal feelings and look at the numbers. And the blogosphere just can’t get enough of all of this. And all of this from a couple of sentences about how bunting is always bad in the situation with which the Astros were faced.

For the record, I fall somewhere in the middle of what Lichtman and what Keith Law propose (you need to read all the threads to understand where that is). A manager has to make a yes/no decision in that moment, but his job should be to be as prepared as he possibly can with all the available data that will help him make an educated decision. The ones that are too close to call? Well, that’s why a managers are paid the way they are.

Lineup Analysis

This is not a new tool by any means, but something I have been messing around with this week that I recommend. Baseball Musings hosts a page that has a Lineup Analyzer put together by Morong, Arneson, and Armburst that allows you to put in any nine players with their OBP and SLG and it will construct the ideal lineup based on those numbers, and their calculated comparison and analysis of the two.

Here is the page, use it on your favorite team for this year or any year.

One of the local FM radio stations here in Houston is celebrating “Baseball Week” all this week, with baseball-themed interviews (including Jose Canseco and the guy who is auctioning off Barry Bonds’ 762nd home run ball and who sounds like he is perpetually stoned), Astros updates, and other various items. And, God bless ‘em, they are really trying. In fact, on Monday they posted a poll on their website that had the question, how many games will the Astros win this year?

So I figure this will look like most of these things I have seen before and have some options like less than 70, 71-75, 76-80, 81-85, etc. But that is assuredly not what I found. You had four options that looked like this:

1. 0-40
2. 41-80
3. 81-120
4. 121-162

Huh? I mean winning 40 or less or 121 or more - is that even possible? And of course a few real smart folks voted for those top and bottom two, but otherwise it was like 45% for number 2 and 45% for number 3. One of the more scientific polls ever created, if you ask me.

But that got me thinking. What would it really take for the 2008 Astros, or any team, to win 40 or less or 121 or more. So I decided to first look back in history. First, the worst teams in major league baseball history, by number of wins:

1. 1899 Cleveland Spiders - 20 Wins, 134 Losses
2. 1916 Philadelphia Athletics - 36 Wins, 117 Losses
3.  1962 New York Mets - 40 Wins, 120 Losses
4. 2003 Detroit Tigers - 43 Wins, 119 Losses

And now the best teams, by wins, in MLB history:

1. 1906 Chicago Cubs - 116 Wins, 36 Losses
2. 2001 Seattle Mariners - 116 Wins, 46 Losses
3.  1998 New York Yankees - 114 Wins, 48 Losses

Essentially, we have had three teams win 40 or less over a full season (though 2 of those teams played 154 game seasons), and no team has ever reached 120 wins. But I did not want to stop there; I wanted to look at how futile or magnificent a team would have to be to reach these win milestones. First, the 40 win or under plateau.

Using our trusty Pythagenpat formula again, we can work backwards to find out how many runs a team would have to score and allow to only win 40 games.

Winning 40 out of 162 gives you a winning percentage of roughly .250 or 25%. So let’s say for arguments sake you have an average park, pitching staff and defense, and your team allows exactly the average number of runs in a season to their opponents. From 2001-2007, the average runs allowed by a major league team was 768, so we will start with that number.

With the formula being to first solve for the exponent, using: X=((rs+ra)/g)^.285. With X being the exponent, you then calculate rs^X/rs^X+ra^X = Winning Percentage. Working backward, and sparing you the math, a team that allowed 768 runs (thus being an average team in that department) would need to score about 415-420 runs to fall right into that .250 winning percentage.

For some context, no one this decade has had fewer than the 574 runs the Dodgers scored in 2003. So we are talking about more than 150 runs less than that team, assuming an average runs allowed total. 420 runs scored only means 2.59 runs per game. Now I don’t want to steer you in the wrong direction here. In the dead ball era, this number was routinely matched and even bested. Your NL record for fewest runs is 371 by the St. Louis Cardinals, led by the great Red Murray and his .282 batting average and 62 RBI. For the AL, the record for fewest runs is 380 by the 1909 Washington Senators, captained by Bob Unglaub and his .265 average with 41 RBI.

Now for the other side. To win at least 121 games would mean a winning percentage of 75%. We will use our same 768 runs to define our average defense/pitching staff/park. Working backwards, using the same formula as before, we can find that a team that allowed 768 runs over a 162-game season would have to score right at 1300 runs (give or take 10 or so on each side) to equal a .750 winning percentage.

This number certainly is more than any team has ever scored in one season in major league baseball, and would equal more than eight runs per game for 162 games. Although, it doesn’t outpace the historical leaders in runs scored by one team by that much. In the AL, the 1931 New York Yankees (did you think it would be anyone else?) scored 1,067 runs, led of course by Ruth and Gehrig. More surprisingly, in the NL, the 1894 Boston Beaneaters scored 1220 runs, led by an amazing nine players who batted .320 or better - and five of them had better than 100 RBI. Of course that was a different time and game, so just in the context of this decade, no one has scored more than 978, the 2000 Chicago White Sox, still more than 300 runs behind our 121-win team.

So certainly both of these situation are unlikely to happen this season, or in any season in the near future. Seeing what a team would have to achieve to accomplish these makes it seem as though we may not see either happen the way the game is played today.

In another one of my posts that will interest exactly nine other people, I plan to look at the recent 10-team fantasy baseball draft in which I participated on Monday, March 24 and make my predictions as to who will be the picks that give each team the most value over the 2008 season as well as the picks that will have the worst value relative to where they were drafted.

First of all, the league format: We play in a 10-team Yahoo! custom points league. Categories for offense are HR, RBI, SB, R, BB, 1B, 2B, and 3B. For pitchers, the categories are W, L, ER, IP, K, Hld, and SV. We have a MLB universe roster of 20 players (5 of which are bench) plus two DL spots per team. There are unlimited trades (with an August deadline) and unlimited other moves as well. The league is a daily league that has been running for five years (with a bit of turnover), but it is not a keeper league.

And by value I am, again, talking about relative to the spot where they were picked. A-Rod will have tremendous value going with the first pick, but that is expected value - what we are looking for is unexpected value or expected value not achieved.

So without any more rambling, here are (in my opinion) the best and worst value draft picks by team, in order of how we drafted.

1. Eric Ramirez

Best pick - Josh Hamilton - 13th round

In half a season last year, the rookie with the troubled past totaled 19 HR and 47 RBI in only 337 plate appearances. This year, he has a guaranteed starting spot on the Rangers and is going to a park that might be the best in the majors for left handed power hitters. Some of the OF taken in the two rounds before Hamilton include Jermaine Dye, Matt Kemp, Jose Guillen and Delmon Young. My guess is that Hamilton out-homers all those guys. In a quick glance at eight popular projection systems, his average home run prediction from all of those is 21. If he stays healthy, he will fly past that number in Arlington

Worst pick - Derrek Lee - 6th round

Not so much that it was a bad pick in the 6th round, but because power is the most sought-after commodity in our league, it was a questionable strategy to wait until the 6th for a 1B - the premium power position. At that point, it may have been wise to wait and grab Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko or Ryan Garko - all of whom went in much later rounds. At age 32, Lee is not the 46/107 guy from three years ago, but he is also not the 22/82 guy from last year. His mean lies somewhere in the middle - but he is just too inconsistent for me as a sixth pick.

2. Kirk Kornegay

Best pick - Joakim Soria - 20th round

I almost had this pegged as Scott Kazmir in the 9th round, but his current injury gives me just a little bit of concern, so Soria is the choice. The Royals play a lot of close games due to an offense that is in the bottom half of the AL. And that is good for a closer, especially one with Soria’s numbers. Soria posted a VORP of 26.4 in 2007 - higher than any of his other Royal teammates. His ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, and BAA were all outstanding in 2007. His BABIP was .264, showing he was a bit lucky, and therefore likely causing a slight bump up in his other peripherals in 2008. However, a closer with 25+ save potential in the last round is a steal.

Worst pick - John Lackey - 7th round

We all know how incredible Lackey has been as a pitcher recently. He was the third best pitcher in the AL last season, and thanks to a significant decrease in his BB/9 and a sharp increase in his LOB%, Lackey made the jump from 13-14 wins per season to 19, and an ERA in the mid-3’s to exactly 3.01. But a strained triceps injury on his throwing arm currently leaves Lackey on the shelf for all of April. Five months from Lackey could still make up for the lost time, especially with an improved offense, but pitchers such as Harang, Oswalt, Beckett and Matsuzaka were still on the board for this pick.

3. Jeremy Gibson

Best pick - H. Bell and R. Betancourt - Rounds 16 and 17

The combined numbers for these two pitchers in 2007 looks like this:

11 wins, 172 IP, 34 ER, 182 Ks, 65 holds, and an ERA around 1.80

Those are fabulous numbers for the amount of innings they account for (out of our 1200 total). Betancourt has some numbers from 2007 that make you feel like the numbers will dip a little, such as an astonishingly low BABIP of .246 and astonishingly high LOB% of 86.4%. Bell also makes you think a little bit because his ERAs in 2005 and 2006 were in the 5’s and his 102 Ks more than doubles anything he has ever done, but even if these pitchers see their numbers decrease by 20% across the board, the 16th and 17th rounds are great for their stats.

Worst pick - Chipper Jones - 6th round

Jones is a great player, and after last year, he clearly has plenty of offense left in that bat. Despite missing almost 30 games, Jones was 6th in the Majors in batting average and VORP and also top 12 in Runs Created (keep in mind, a cumulative stat). So while normally this would be a great pick, there is just too much injury concern for me. Jones has not played in more than 137 games since 2003 and in 2005-2006 he missed at least 50 games each season. Jeremy has an admirable back-up plan with Mike Lowell also on the roster, and I just have this feeling that he will definitely be forced into active duty on Jeremy’s team before too long. But of course this could easily end up being his best pick if it pans out and Jones stays healthy.

4. Ryan Kirksey

Best pick - Dustin McGowan - 19th round

The one pitcher I was targeting most in the late rounds this year, and I kept waiting and waiting, forcing myself to be patient in hopes on one else would take him. McGowan, now 26, saw so many things trend upward from 2006 to 2007: namely his K/9, BB/9, ERA, and WHIP. Plus, he is an extreme groundball pitcher (a great thing seeing as he will be facing some of the toughest lineups in the league on a regular basis) to the tune of 53% in 2007. An improved Blue Jays lineup certainly won’t hurt his case for wins, but a questionable bullpen might. Still, if his Ks and IP continue to go up and his BB and earned runs continue to go down, I should be happy.

Worst pick - Francisco Liriano - 12th round

I will be the hardest on myself. This was a stupid pick here. I thought a lot of people were looking for him about this time, but it turns out most people were going to wait a couple more rounds. They had probably all seen the note that came out Monday that I missed: Liriano will likely open the season with some starts in Triple-A before moving up. Guys like Carmona, Wang and Bonderman went around at that time, and I probably would have been better off with one of those. Even for a talent like Liriano, there are too many questions surrounding a return from Tommy John that I should have waited a few more picks or waited to see how he responds in real game action.

5. Regan Boudra

Best pick - Chien Ming Wang - 12th round

Probably the hardest draft to pick a best/worst value. Every pick seemed to be pretty much in line with the perceived value of the player, so these may be a stretch in a couple of areas. Regan’s quote during the draft of “I’ll take 17 wins even if he only gets 17 strikeouts” was one of the highlights, but it also rings somewhat true. Actually, Wang’s K rate improved to 4.70 per nine last year, up from 3.14 in 2006. Your standard for acceptable K/9 rates for a starter really should be around 5.6 or so, but when 59% of your balls in play are grounders, you are getting plenty of people out that way (even with Jeter and whatever lead glove they will play at first). So 17 wins is certainly achievable, I might even go one or two more for him.

Worst pick - Carlos Guillen - 6th round

I am lukewarm on Carlos Guillen as I had him in the second half of last year (the half he was just good, and not incredible), but he is just a bit too streaky in my opinion. His HR the past 5 years have been 21, 19, 5, 20, 7. His OPS: 859, 920, 803, 921, 753. RC: 99, 112, 51, 107, 55. Still, playing first should keep him on the field more and cut down on his pesky injuries. Guillen is not a bad pick here by any means, but he was the fifth SS taken after Rollins, Ramirez, Reyes and Tulo - so there were options available.

6. Tim Miller

Best pick - Kerry Wood - 20th round

Wood was officially named the Cubs’ closer earlier that day, and the Cubs look to compete in the division, so Wood should factor in many of those decisions albeit if he remains healthy. A K/9 rate of 8.9 last year in limited work is very promising (especially since it was 5.95 in 2006), but a BB/9 rate of 4.81 is decidedly not promising. He has not had a number that high since 2000, so he can certainly get it under control, but with Marmol and Howry breathing down his neck, Pinella does have options if this arm-saving move of having Wood close does not pan out.

Worst Pick - Justin Verlander - 5th round

This may be a bit of a reach on my part, because Verlander is going to be great, but he was the fifth pitcher taken overall in our draft. Only one fantasy preview source that I found (out of about 15) had Verlander ranked fifth. The average of all of those pegged Verlander at 9.4. Still on the board when Verlander went were Beckett, Sabathia, Harang, and Haren - all of whom could make a case to go ahead of Verlander. A couple of things to watch would be the interesting fact that despite the velocity of Verlander’s fastball decreasing the past three years, his K rate has increased. Watch that and his innings count (high for a young pitcher), but the offense behind him should support plenty of wins. Still, JV is Tim’s ace, and should serve him well

7. Joel Ramirez

Best pick - Edgar Renteria - 15th round

While nothing with the glove, Renteria has again turned into a force with the bat. Hitting in that stacked Detroit lineup won’t hurt anything, either. Since our league does not have a middle infielder spot, once the top ten SS went, it was a while until number 11 (Renteria) went off the board. While Joel also drafted Hanley Ramirez, a quick check of his roster shows that Renteria would be a better fit at the Util spot that anyone else in his lineup (Giambi, Rolen, etc.). Renteria has always been a great source for hits and average (although last year he was off the charts and won’t repeat that), but his OBP has also improved four straight years, something that is vital to the Tigers and to fantasy points leagues.

Worst pick - Jacque Jones and Derrick Turnbow - 17th and 18th rounds

Jones also has the benefit of being in the Tigers’ lineup, but he will be batting ninth and is generally projected with a line around .265/.325/.410 and 10-15 HR - in other words no real value in our league. Jones’ Runs Created numbers last year dropped from 85 to 58, thanks in part to a 100-point drop in SLG. His best days are behind him.

Turnbow is in line to replace Gagne if he fails in Milwaukee, but he has two years of overall numbers that are just bad. Actually, the strikeouts have been great at over 11 K/9 the past two years, but the walk rate has been over 6 BB/9 over the same two years. Value comes only if he gets the chance to save again.

8. David Gilly

Best pick - Chad Billingsley - 15th round

There is only one real number I can find where Billingsley did not improve from 2006 to 2007 (his first true chance to start), and that is his HR/9 number of .92, up from .70. Billingsley’s career FB% is around 37.6% or just better than average, so the HR rate is not too much of a concern, especially pitching in Dodger Stadium. Besides that, all of his rate stats such as ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, BABIP, LOB%, and BAA all made significant increases in 2007. And he is only 24 - which means he is still maturing.

Worst pick - Jorge Posada - 8th round

Posada is a fine catcher and should put up great positional numbers in the Yankees lineup. But he was taken as the fourth catcher overall behind the 3M’s - Martinez, Martin and McCann. Fourth is not crazy for Posada, but I think it started a run on catchers too early. In fact, 6 teams drafted their catcher before the 10th round was over. And that may not sound so bad, but that means that 6 catchers were drafted in the top 100 players. And that just can’t be justified. For example, in MLB.com’s top 100 fantasy list, only three are catchers. I imagine David drafted with a few thoughts of Posada’s 2007 numbers in his head. We have discussed this before, but Posada’s 2007 base stats just do not coincide with the rest of his career, and at 37, he can’t be expected to be that lucky again - especially with his incredible .389 BABIP.

9. Justin Jones

Best pick - Curtis Granderson - 8th round

News of Granderson’s broken finger dropped the value of this CF who had a 20-20-20-20-20-20-20-20-20 season (or something like that) in 2007. So this is a guarded pick, but even if Granderson misses three to four weeks from the time of the injury, he should be a steal in the 8th round. Granderson led all AL leadoff men in OPS in 2007 with .926 and the projections of Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and ZiPS all feel that Granderson will repeat his 2007 numbers in 2B, HR and RBI - all very valuable in our league.

Worst pick - Nick Swisher - 4th round

Again, I sort of understand this because first basemen were flying off the board so he had to have somebody, but Atkins, Adrian Gonzalez, Lee, and Konerko were still on the board - all of whom will probably have better power numbers than Swisher. Swisher is famous for his ability to get on base, but with his power, he might be sacrificing some HR (which were down by 13 from’06) for walks and other hits. That’s great in real life, “get on base….help the team,” but doesn’t do too much for us. He can play 1B or OF, so depending on how Justin’s other 1B (Todd Helton) does, this may all be a moot point.

10. Jason Kirksey

Best pick - Adam Wainwright - 15th round

I was all ready to put his pick of Kelvim Escobar in this slot, but then word comes today that his injury might be career-threatening, so that shot that idea. Anyway, Wainwright’s move from reliever to starter was an overwhelming success. While most of his numbers saw a bit of an uptick, understandable due to his innings being almost three times that of 2006, the one number that decreased significantly was his HR/9 from 0.72 to 0.58. This is promising for someone who is going to be the veritable ace of the staff at least until the all-star break. Wainwright is another groundball pitcher (48%), but with more than a third of his batted balls being flyballs, it is good that he is developing a skill of keeping balls in the park at a better rate.

Worst pick - Dontrelle Willis - 14th round

We all like looking for great value in the last quarter of the draft, but…

And now he moves to a tougher league for pitchers, albeit with a stellar offense behind him. There is also always talk of Comerica being a pitchers’ park, but in 2006 and 2007, it was very average, and actually a better park for hitters on average over the last three years than the Marlins’ stadium in Miami. That could spell trouble.

So there you have it, too much information that too few people don’t care about. I will do a brief recap mid-season of how things are going and then do a seasonal review looking back at these picks and deciding what the REAL best and worst value picks were for 2008.

I would love to hear your complaints or praise on your thoughts on the picks in general.

Using a relatively new tool on BaseballReference.com known as the Batting Order Outcomes, I thought it might be fun to go back and look at last season and construct the ultimate lineup, spots 1-8, using each team’s production in each of those spots as our data.

The way this page works is you can put in any team and any spot in the lineup (1-9) and BR will pull up a page with stats on how that team performed in that season at that spot in the lineup, with all PA included throughout the season.

So, I can quickly go back and see that in 1972, The Boston Red Sox had an OPS of .625 in the 7th spot, with the famous Doug Griffin getting the majority of the plate appearances that year.

Using OPS as our gauge, I will lay out the ultimate 2007 batting order from across the Majors. While the batting order page has incredible splits and breakouts of stats per month, player, inning, relative score, and more, the stats used are pretty basic, so OPS is probably our best bet for this exercise.

Starting with the leadoff position, here is the best from each spot in 2007, with a couple of my random comments associated with each:

1. Florida Marlins - .897 OPS

This one makes sense especially when you consider that Hanley Ramirez was given 706 of the 780 plate appearances for the Marlins in the leadoff spot in ‘07. May and June were actually not kind to Ramirez and the Marlins’ leadoff spot; the OPS totals for those two months in that spot were .738 and .694, respectively. But the next three months had totals of 1.094, .875 and .944 - so he certainly finished strong. In comparison, Ramirez’s two counterparts, Rollins in Philly and Reyes in NY, both contributed to .869 and .772 totals for their teams. Ramirez is expected to move to third in the order in 2008, so don’t look for the Fish to repeat in this spot.

2. St Louis Cardinals - .870 OPS

This one mildly surprised me. No Derek Jeter, Kevin Youkilis, Placido Polanco, or even Hunter Pence took this spot. Rather, the combination of Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel give the Cardinals the top spot. Certainly helping the cause, Ankiel slugged .603 batting second. Also contributing to the solid .870 number were the OPS numbers by Scott Speizio and Skip Schmaker, who both had an OPS over 1.000 in 131 total plate appearances.

3. Boston Red Sox - 1.034 OPS

No surprises here. David Ortiz ate up 89% of the 751 total plate appearances in the third spot. I have heard some people say that Ortiz had a down year last year because his homeruns and RBI were down from the previous two seasons, but that argument is truly ridiculous. His batting average, OBP, OPS+, Runs Created, and Runs Above Replacement were all the best of his career. His 52 doubles made up for “only” 35 HRs - a number which will likely trend upward in 2008. And in September, during the playoff push, Ortiz’s OPS was a mere 1.355.

4. New York Yankees - 1.069 OPS

Again, no surprises at this spot. Of 744 2007 plate appearances in the #4 spot, A-Rod had 700 of them, with OPS of 1.081. In the few times someone else actually hit in this spot, Jorge Posada, Miguel Cairo and Hideki Matsui all had an OPS of at least 1.000 as well. And quite possibly even more impressive, the Yankees who had the number four spot come up with RISP 243 times, totaled an OPS of 1.127.

5. Toronto Blue Jays - .939 OPS

I probably could have given you a dozen guesses to this one, and you wouldn’t have said the Blue Jays. But there they are - with big Frank Thomas leading the way with his .935 OPS. Actually, while Thomas had the most PAs in that spot, he only accounted for about a third of the total plate appearances. Some of the other notable names hitting in that spot: Aaron Hill, Troy Glaus and Matt Stairs totaled OPS scores of .946, 1.145 and 1.003, respectively. All of these numbers represent significant increases over their seasonal totals.

6. Colorado Rockies - .908 OPS

This spot makes sense as well, with Brad Hawpe demanding 73% of the PAs for the Rockies in 2007. And while Hawpe’s OPS in 2007 in that spot was an incredible .918, it is severely overshadowed by Ryan Spilborghs who had an OPS of 1.212 over 74 PAs in the six hole. In another interesting note, the Rockies only had one month all season (April) where they did not slug at least .500 from the 6th spot in the lineup. Perhaps not surprisingly, that was the month they had a losing record.

7. Philadelphia Phillies - .850 OPS

This spot in the Phillies’ lineup was distributed pretty evenly amongst Abraham Nunez, Jayson Werth, Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs, and Aaron Rowand. Except for Nunez, all other batters had an OPS of at least .847 in the seven spot, with Rowand leading the way a 1.070 over 87 plate appearances. One entertaining and interesting note here looks at when throughout the course of the game the Phillies really produced in the 7th spot. In the 1st-6th innings, the Phillies had an OPS of .885 in the seventh spot, but that number drops to .783 from the 7th-9th innings.

8. Pittsburgh Pirates - .800 OPS

I could probably give you 25 guesses and you would not have picked the Pirates in this spot. I certainly thought it would be Robinson Cano or some other powerhouse offense, not the team that was 12th in the National League in runs scored. But with Jack Wilson and his .825 OPS getting exactly half of the plate appearances, the Cesar Izturis’s, Jose Castillos and Jose Bautistas of the world could not drag down the total number below .800. The second half of 2007 is what tells the story for the Pirates earning this spot - as a team the OPS in the 8th spot after the All-Star Break was an amazing .899.

In an exercise like this, the Magglio Ordonezes, Matt Hollidays and Miguel Cabreras unfortunately get stuck on the outside. But I certainly think that a team composed of this lineup would score an astonishing amount of runs. But just how many? Well, using the basic Runs Created formula, we can come up with a good guess as to just how many.

Formula: ((H+BB)*(1B+(2*2B)+(3*3B)+(4*HR)))/(AB+BB)

Total estimated Runs Created: 1024

In context, the team with the most runs in 2007 were the Yankees with 968 and the average across MLB was 777.

So in other words, we have quite an offensive machine on our hands, even including batters from the Pirates, Cardinals and Blue Jays.

As you know, I pimp the site Fangraphs on this blog a lot. It has a ton of information that is tremendously difficult to find elsewhere, as well as up-to-date, daily archives of Win Probability Added and Leverage Index (the metric created by Tom Tango measuring a player’s performance and how it relates to his play when situations in the game become more critical) that you can not find anywhere else in a timely manner. Not only all of that, but I just happen to write the Astros team blog for that site during the season.

Recently, there have been a number of excellent additions and modifications to the site. These are the most outstanding of those updates:

Pitch Type and Velocity - for each current pitcher, there is a new table at the bottom of their page that lists the percentage of different pitches thrown and their velocity from 2005-2007. For example you can now find out that in 2005, Daniel Cabrera threw 65% fastballs at an average speed of 96 mph and he threw 28% sliders at an average speed of 88 mph. In 2007, those numbers changed to 74% fastballs at 94 mph and 23% sliders at 83mph. Total pitch counts and undocumentable pitches are also accounted for.

Projections updates - Fangraphs works with a number of projection outlets to post each player’s projected numbers for the upcoming season on their stat pages. Recently, the ZiPS projections and the recently invented MINER projections have been added to each player’s page. These are now included in addition to the Bill James, CHONE and Marcel predictions that were already listed. Looking at a player like Jorge Posada, who last year had career numbers of .338/.426/.543, not one of the projections has Posada pegged at a batting average higher than .288 or a SLG% higher than .469.

Spring Training Stats - If you put a lot of stock into that type of thing, Fangraphs will be updating spring stats for each major leaguer. I guess we can all follow along as we see how long this Ichiro spring hitting drought continues…

And don’t forget that the Astros Fangraphs blog will resume again after the start of the season as we discuss all things good (offense) and all things bad (everything else) from the Win Probability and Leverage Index perspective.

I work at a place that often gets involved in the political arena, specifically policy recommendation and research, so times like these are often quite entertaining and quite busy. My past couple of weeks have been spent working on plans for various presidential candidates we have invited to come and also hosting an event for Senator John McCain ahead of the Texas Primary. While I am not using all of that as an excuse for the delay in writing, I am using it as segue into what I will discuss today.

You see, when you host an event for a presidential candidate, there are always questions from the guests or from the audience that they would like answered. Inevitably, the two questions always raised are “would you have done X differently if you were president at that time,” and “if you are president, what will happen when you are faced with X problem?”

The candidates are a little more comfortable with the first question because hindsight is always 20/20 and they can come up with a solution that most people would approve and state how much better their solution is than the one that was made. Conversely, they get a little bit more uneasy when it comes to the second question, there are no decisions that have already been made about the hypothetical problem, thus nothing to base their answer on. And who knows, maybe they will be faced with this same problem in office, do they stick with their answer even though it may not be the best one, or decide differently, and risk looking like a liar or a flip-flopper.

I think the same holds true for baseball. It is a bit easier to look back and plug in a different solution/player/strategy than to predict the course of action for a hypothetical game situation or how a season will play out.

And thus is the nature of projections - a lot is usually right and a lot is usually wrong. However, it’s much easier to look back, take numbers we know are facts, and plug in a few new variables to make educated guesses than it is to base future numbers on unknowns.

And with that we turn our attention to the two new aces of the National League: Johan Santana and Dan Haren of the Mets and Diamondbacks, respectively. Fortunately, for the purposes of this research, both of their new teams were involved in tight races towards the end of the season, with the D’backs turning out a lot better than the now-famous collapse by the Mets the last 17 games of 2007.

While we can’t know for sure how these pitchers will perform in 2008, can we at least try to plug them onto their teams last year and see what kind of difference they would have made? Would it have caused Arizona to miss the playoffs? Caused the Mets to make the playoffs? And what is the best way to find out?

Well, also fortunate for us, we know exactly who these two new pitchers will be replacing on their new teams. Haren will replace Livan Hernandez in the rotation (who left for the Twins), while Santana will replace Tom Glavine (now with the Braves). Otherwise, the rotations seem to be the same.

With a little tweaking, and some playing with the numbers, adjusting them from league to league, I think we can tell how Haren and Santana might have affected their new teams had they been pitching instead of Hernandez and Glavine. Comparatively, Haren had 34 starts to Hernandez’s 33, and Santana also started 33 to Glavine’s 34 - so we almost come out event there already.

Here is what I think we should do:

First, we will remove one perfectly average game from Haren’s line and add one perfectly average game to Santana’s so that they will also each reflect 33 or 34 starts (I want to leave in the best and worst games because those are what make a pitcher’s season and define his consistency. See Ron Shandler’s PQS scores for more on that topic).

Second, we will subtract all of the runs allowed by Hernandez and Glavine for their teams last year from the team’s runs allowed total. We will work with both earned and unearned runs here so that the defensive aspect stays constant - it is something pitchers can not control.

Third, we have to add back in to the teams’ runs allowed totals the number of runs allowed by Santana and Haren last year. This is where it gets a bit tricky and where we have to adjust for context. In 2007, the average ERA in the AL was 4.50. In the NL, it was 4.43. So, the AL was about 2% tougher for pitchers than the NL. Keeping unearned numbers the same, we can adjust Santana’s and Haren’s earned run totals by that 2% to get a sensible estimate of what each pitcher would have done in the NL.

We will then check each team’s actual 2007 won-loss record compared to their expected won-loss record using runs scored vs. runs allowed and the Pythagenpat formula: X = ((rs+ra)/g)^.285 for the exponent and then rs^X/rs^X + ra^X for winning percentage. It has been documented that Clay Davenport, who modified the original Pythagorean Theory for win/loss by Bill James believes this Pythagenpat method is an even further improvement, so we will use that one. We will see how many wins better or worse the two teams were in 2007.

Then using the new runs allowed totals and adding them back into their new teams’ 2007 numbers, we can plug these in for runs allowed, adjust for the number of games better or worse they were above the expected outcome, and see where each team would have ended their 2007 regular season. Would the Mets have held off the Phillies? Would the D’Backs have won the division outright? Won the Wild Card? Missed the playoffs?

Here’s the math, starting with Santana:

2007 Mets - 88-74 record - 804 runs scored, 750 runs allowed for Pythagenpat record of 86-76 - two games better than projected
Glavine accounts for 102 runs - subtract from 750 to get 648
Santana accounts for 88 real runs in 2007, 81 earned
Add three earned runs to Santana’s total (an average start for Johan) to make him equal to 34 starts
Santana now has 91 total runs, 84 of them earned
Take 2% away from 84, leaving him with 82 earned runs, 89 total runs
Add 89 back into the 648 left for runs allowed for 737
Pythagenpat forumla:
X = ((804+737)/162)^.285, X = 1.90
W% = 804^1.90/804^1.90 + 737^1.90, W% = .541
New Pythagenpat record: 88-74
New actual record, 2 games better: 90-72

So now the Mets hang on and beat the Phillies (89-73) by one game to represent the NL East in the playoffs. And the 17-game collapse is all but forgotten. Until they get swept by the D’Backs.

And now for Haren:

2007 Diamondbacks - 90-72 record - 712 runs scored, 732 runs allowed for Pythagenpat record of 79-83 - 11 games better than projected
Hernandez accounts for 116 runs - subtract from 732 to get 616
Haren accounts for 91 real runs in 2007, 76 earned
Subtract three earned runs to Haren’s total (an average start for Haren) to make him equal to 34 starts
Haren now has 88 total runs, 73 of them earned
Take 2% away from 73, leaving him with 72 earned runs, 87 total runs
Add 87 back into the 616 left for runs allowed for 703
Pythagenpat formula:
X = ((712+703)/162)^.285, X = 1.855
W% = 712^1.855/712^1.855 + 703^1.855, W% = .506
New Pythagenpat record: 82-80
New actual record, 11 games better: 93-69

The D’Backs had the best record in the NL to begin with, edging out the Rockies for the WC and beating Philadelphia by one game, so it might not look like it would have affected Arizona’s season too much, much less their sweep of the Cubs and then being swept by the Rockies in the NLCS. But, Hernandez did start game 3 of the NLCS, losing it 4-1. Who knows if Haren had started that game what would have happened (especially since Arizona only scored once). But a 2-1 deficit at that stage would have been much less daunting than down 3-0 with another to play in Coors.

So while this is not ground-breaking stuff by any means, don’t be surprised when these guys make a significant difference on their clubs this year, especially if races end up being close like in 2007. It’s impossible to know for sure what will happen this time, but it just goes to show that one guy could make a difference between the playoffs and going home.

If you catch any errors in my math, please let me know.

We finally finish things off this series with the surprise division of 2007, the one that produced two playoff teams and the eventual NL champion. A couple of major moves and a lot of player signings and extensions highlight this division’s offseason.

Arizona Diamondbacks

12-14-2007: Acquired RHP Dan Haren and RHP Connor Robertson from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for LHP Brett Anderson, LHP Dana Eveland, LHP Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter, OF Aaron Cunningham, and OF Carlos Gonzalez; Acquired RHP Chad Qualls, RHP Juan Gutierrez, and OF Chris Burke in exchange for RHP Jose Valverde.
This one day pretty much sums up the major transactions during this offseason for the D’Backs. Beyond a one-year salary here or the club picking up the option there, this one day reflects the new face their team.
We’ve already examined the quality of prospects the D’backs gave up in this deal and what it did for the Oakland farm system, but how good a pitcher did they get in return? At age 26/27 last year, Haren took a sizable step up in performance, something you might expect from a pitcher of his age that has plus pitches. In fact, Haren posted career bests in all of the following numbers last season: wins, ERA, Ks, ERA+, K/9, BAA, LOB%, PRAA, VORP, Win Shares and WARP. All these while posting a BABIP that is almost exactly the average for pitchers.
Like I mentioned with Johan Santana, I want to look at Haren and Santana and their new NL context in an article hopefully before the season starts, but here are Haren’s number against the NL during interleague in his career:
7-2, 2.93 ERA, 61 Ks, and a line against of .219/.285/.362 in 12 games and 83 innings. Not too bad.

In the Valverde deal, the D’Backs received two players that will be on their opening day rosters. One is Chris Burke, the former Astros’ uber-prospect. Why he didn’t exactly work out as planned is still somewhat a mystery, but it probably has to do with a number of factors such as inconsistent playing time, having to learn three different positions when they were not benching Biggio, and never being able to consistently take a walk and get on base (something the Astros needed in their one and two hitters). Burke for his career has a 0.41 BB/K ratio in 1155 PA.
Qualls is currently slated to pitch the 8th inning with Brandon Lyon being named the closer. A careful look at Qualls’ numbers over his career show some interesting details that perhaps Arizona should consider. Qualls’ numbers against him over 521 career 8th inning plate appearances are an average .281/.344/.400 with a 112 OPS+ against. In the 9th inning, over 126 PAs, Qualls’ number show .189/.274/.297 with a 63 OPS+ against. What do these numbers really tell us? Not much. But if you are like me and believe that the more innings a pitcher throws, the larger the sample size becomes, the more he begins to show his “true self” and what type of pitcher he is. After four years, we have a pretty good idea of what kind of 8th inning pitcher Qualls is. Conversely, these are Lyon’s numbers in the 8th and 9th innings over his career:
8th - .251/.297/.405 with 78 OPS+ over 483 PA
9th - .293/.338/.457 with 102 OPS+ over 328 PA
So maybe there should at least be some consideration given to those two switching roles. Or better yet, you could actually use your best reliever whenever the score calls for it in the late innings, not just the ninth? Oh, who am I kidding…

Colorado Rockies

11-29-2007: Re-signed C Yorvit Torrealba to a two-year contract with a mutual option for 2010.
This deal, worth $7.25m was to keep their starting catcher in the fold for perhaps the next three years. The Rockies already have a potent offense batting in front of him, so his bat is not crucial to their success, but Torrealba is the very definition of average when it comes to catchers. Below is a comparison of the 2007 averages for MLB catchers compared to Torrealba’s 2007 numbers:

2007 catchers     Stat     2007 Torrealba
.255                       AVG         .255
.321                       OBP         .323
.393                       SLG         .376
.244                       EqA         .235

But compared to catchers like Brian Schneider and Jason Kendall, he is a steal.

1-18-2008: Signed OF Matt Holliday to a two-year contract.
There is not much you can say about Matt Holliday negatively when it comes to his past two offensive seasons. He is simply a masher - and everything, his Avg, OBP, SLG, VORP, RC, everything - was in the top ten in the NL in 2007. Like I said, it’s hard to find something to criticize, but that’s why I am here. Please don’t misunderstand, Holliday is an amazing player, and at 28, should continue to be an amazing player for years. But, there are some numbers that could predict a little bit of a dropoff for Holliday in the near future.
In 2006, Holliday was fourth in the NL with a .351 BABIP, a very high number - one that could lead the league some years. He also had a HR/FB ratio of 18.2% placing him in the top 15 in the NL in that category also. So, one would expect in 2007 that those numbers would reduce and even out some to the norm. Well, that’s not what happened. In 2007, Holliday raised his BABIP to .377 (best in the NL) and his HR/FB rate, even though it dropped a little to 17.9%, put him sixth in the NL for that number. Even though Coors Field tempers these numbers a little bit and does strange things with them, the increase or plateau he now sees in those categories can certainly not continue forever. Combine these numbers with the fact that he has also been in the top 25 for GB% in the NL two years running, and you could see a slight decrease in production (FB and GB both have rates of turning them into outs of over 70%).

1-23-2008: Signed SS Troy Tulowitzki to a six-year contract.
The defining move of the Rockies’ offseason, and in my opinion, one of the best signings in years relative to what a team had to pay for the actual value of a player. Tulowitzki, who is 23 this year, signed a six-year deal worth $31m - but one that is EXTREMELY backloaded. Troy will not make more than a million bucks a season until 2010.
Averaging $5m a year for a SS who was top-five in the NL in 2007 in HR, RBI, Avg, OBP, SLG, RC, RC/27, VORP, WPA, and Win Shares is downright amazing. Plus, he will only be 29 at the end of this deal. 29!
In all of this, we haven’t even talked about the defense yet. Tulowitzki was the best shortstop in the National League last year - as shown by his winning John Dewan’s Fielding Bible award for 2007 with an amazing +35, 20 more than any other NL SS. Last year, Tulo was number four in the NL with an RZR of .861, which is impressive enough, but he also led in NL in reaching balls out of his zone with 87. Your other great offensive shortstops in the NL (Reyes, Rollins and Ramirez), averaged 56 last year.

2-11-2008: Signed INF Garrett Atkins to a one-year, $4.3875 million contract, avoiding arbitration.
Although Atkins is not near the defensive player Tulo has become (only .613 RZR, -29 in the Fielding Bible, and -17 RAA for Atkins), this is still a relative steal when comparing Atkins to other NL third basemen. In fact, you can realistically make the argument that only David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, and Ryan Braun were better offensive NL 3B last season (with perhaps Aramis Ramirez in the argument, too). With Braun now in the OF, Jones another year older and Cabrera switching leagues, this 28-year-old has a shot to be a top-3 3B in his league this year. And the other five players I just mentioned average over $8m in salary this year, and that includes Braun who will make less than a million in 2008.

Los Angeles Dodgers

12-12-2007: Signed free agent CF Andruw Jones to a two-year contract.
Besides signing a new manager and a slew of new coaches, this was the one LA move of any note this offseason. I wondered quite a while back what would actually happen with Jones after this uncharacteristically bad 2007. The power went away, any on-base ability went away, and a number of other factors culminated in his poor showing in 2007. As I suspected, one of the key things I examined in that post turned out to hold true all year long. Jones’ FB% was the highest of his career - 43.9%, a sure sign he was trying to homer his way into a big contract. But all that hacking didn’t pay off as his HR/FB ratio of 13.4% was by far the lowest of his career. So a greater number of fly balls with less of them going for homers means a whole lot of outs compared to his numbers in the past.
On the other hand, his defense is still stellar. He was a close second in the Fielding Bible awards this year, with a +24, but still leads all CF over the past three years by a wide margin (Jones is at +63, while the next closest is +46). Also, his .921 RZR was first among CF in the NL, and second among all OF to only Eric Byrnes (.923).
So a two-year $36m deal ($12m of which is signing bonus), isn’t quite what he hoped for, especially seeing what Torii Hunter received, but he will take it and do this whole song and dance again in a couple of years.

San Diego Padres

12-12-2007: Signed RHP Jake Peavy to a five-year contract with a club option for 2013.
Not only the 2007 Cy Young, but also the NL pitching triple crown winner (ERA, Ks, Wins). Only 26 on opening day this year, Peavy already has three seasons of at least 13 wins with an ERA under 2.90 in his career. That may not sound too impressive, but Peavy is the first person to have three such years by age 26 since Jose Rijo in 1988-1991. Throw in three seasons where he also had at least 215 strikeouts and you are looking at the NL’s most dominant pitcher until someone else proves otherwise.
His 2007 was so dominant, in fact, that he led the NL in wins, ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, VORP, and WPA. He was second in LOB% with an amazing 78.3% and only four qualifying pitchers gave up fewer homeruns than Peavy.
The first two years of his deal are worth $14.5 m, while the last three are worth $52m - but for a pitcher who will only be 31 when the contract is up, this was a must-do for the Friars.

12-15-2007: Acquired OF Jim Edmonds and cash from the Cardinals in exchange for minor league 3B David Freese.
Every relevant offensive statistic that you can think of has declined four years in a row for Edmonds, who is thought to be the Padres’ new CF. We’re talking cumulative numbers, rate stats, ratios, anything. But most importantly, his games played has decreased every year. Now almost 38, his years of flying around the outfield have caught up with him - so much so that his fabled defense in CF has failed him for years. Two years running, Edmonds has been negative in the Runs Above Average category used to measure defensive proficiency. Edmonds also ranked in the bottom five in the Fielding Bible awards in 2007, again measuring a negative value.

12-26-2007: Signed RHP Mark Prior to a one-year contract.
From the Associated Press:

“Mark Prior didn’t experience any pain in his surgically repaired right shoulder during his first spring training workout with the San Diego Padres”

Just wait, Padres. Just wait.

2-12-2008: Signed INF Khalil Greene to a two-year contract.
Greene’s offensive numbers the past three seasons:
2005  56 RC  95 OPS+
2006  54 RC  97 OPS+
2007  83 RC  100 OPS+

Greene’s defensive rankings among NL SS the past three seasons:
2005 - 14th in RZR - 16th in OOZ
2006 - 7th in RZR - 14th in OOZ
2007 - 5th in RZR - 5th in OOZ

Did Greene just dramatically improve offensively and defensively over the course of one season? Time will tell and we will need this season and more to judge how he fares in both, but Greene is clearly beginning to develop on both sides. He has been in the top ten in the Fielding Bible Awards for two years in a row and his SLG percentage was his highest ever, although at the expense of the lowest OBP, LD% and highest FB% of his career.

San Francisco Giants

12-1-2007: Declined to offer arbitration to OF Barry Bonds
And now spring training has started and he is still waiting. That Hall class of 2012 with him, Clemens, Biggio, Sosa, et al is going to be very interesting to watch.

12-12-2007: Signed OF Aaron Rowand to a five-year contract.
This is the Giants’ projected lineup for this season:

Dave Roberts LF
Kevin Frandsen 3B
Randy Winn RF
Bengie Molina C
Aaron Rowand CF
Ray Durham 2B
Dan Ortmeier 1B
Omar Vizquel SS

Last year, Rowand earned 23 Win Shares by himself. The other seven giants in the lineup earned 67. Rowand earned more than a third of the total of the rest of the batters just by himself.
Also last season, Roward accumulated 98 RC by himself; the rest of the lineup - 419. Again, Rowand by himself with more than 20% of the total of the rest of the lineup. So can Rowand come in and almost single-handedly bring the Giants’ offense to a level of at least mediocrity? In 2007, the Giants had the following ranks in each of these categories:

OBP 27th
AVG 27th
Runs 29th
SLG 30th
OPS 30th
Total bases 30th

The answer is, probably not. You see, the Giants achieved these figures with Mr. Bonds. His totals in the Win Shares and Runs Created departments were 21 and 92, respectively, compared to 23 and 98 for Rowand. So has the offense improved? Probably not. Has the defense improved? Most definitely with Bonds gone and Rowand in center. Has the pitching improved? The Giants sure hope Lincecum and Cain take a step forward and Zito improves, but it looks to be a long season by the bay in 2008.

So there you have it. While admittedly leaving out some analysis of some of the deals that took place after I wrote up the division (namely the Bedard deal), these are the major and not-so-major moves for the 2008 season.

I will get back into more of the stats stuff with my next post.

I have written a short piece for the Spring Training 2008 website hosted by Blogs by Fans about the Astros. You can check it out here, and also click on any of the team logos for a preview of rosters, rotations, and key spring training battles. Spend a few minutes there if you have a chance.

Also, check out any of the previous five posts on offseason MLB transactions from the American League and two of the three NL divisions. The NL West will round out the series later this week.

I promise this will not be as long as the NL Central post from a few days ago. But then again, the NL East has made some pretty significant moves this offseason, so maybe I will retract that. Let’s jump right in,

Atlanta Braves

11-16-2007: Acquired OF Josh Anderson from the Houston Astros in exchange for RHP Oscar Villarreal.
The Braves were faced with quite a challenge when Andruw Jones left for the Dodgers. How do you replace a perennial Gold Glover and a huge bat (at least in 2005 and 2006) in center field? Well rookie Anderson will be fighting another offseason pickup for that CF spot, but he certainly won’t be contending for any Gold Gloves or slugging titles - Anderson had a lower SLG than OBP last season, although his line was an impressive .358/.413/.403 in his first 67 major league at bats.

11-19-2007: Signed LHP Tom Glavine to a one year contract for the 2008 season.
Likely his last year, 42-year-old Glavine returns for one more go around with the club with whom he had so much success. Here is an interesting stat about Glavine: he shows up in the Cy Young voting 6 times between 1991 and 2000, winning it twice. But in the years he shows in the voting, he has never been lower than third place.
Glavine joins a rotation that now consists of John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Chuck James, and Mike Hampton if he stays healthy. And while Atlanta still has a competent lineup including Teixeira, Chipper, Francouer, and McCann, I can’t help but wonder if Glavine wishes he was still part of the Mets’ rotation now that they are favored in the National League.

1-14-2008: Acquired OF Mark Kotsay from the A’s in exchange for RHP Joey Devine, RHP Jamie Richmond, and cash considerations
The other candidate for the CF spot in Hot-lanta. Diaz and Francouer have the other spots sewed up, so whomever does not start out of Anderson and Kotsay, the other becomes the primary backup at all three positions.
Kotsay never had an OBP over .332 in his last three years in Oakland, so that was definitely not going to cut it there. The interesting thing, though, about Kotsay is that while his Avg., OBP, SLG, BB%, BABIP, and RC/27 have all been at or below league average over the past two years, his K% remains as great as ever. Kotsay almost never strikes out, and he has never had a K rate that was worse than league average. In 2004, when Kotsay had a career high 673 PAs, he only struck out 70 times, for a K% of 11.8%. In perspective, only seven players in 2004 had at least 670 PAs and 70 or less strikeouts that season. Maybe that’s why the A’s loved him.

1-24-2008: Signed RHP Rafael Soriano to a two-year contract.
The new closer of the Braves signs on after a stellar 71 games in 2007 where he saved nine in limited ninth-inning duties, but posted an ERA of 3.00, a WHIP of 0.861, and an ERA+ of 142. His career K/9 has been pretty good, his career BB/9 is great - but watch out for his BABIP numbers this year. In 2007 Soriano’s was .208, about 90 points below the average for pitchers.

Florida Marlins

12-5-2007: Acquired RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP Dallas Trahern. LHP Andrew Miller, and OF Cameron Maybin from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for LHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera.
One of the two biggest moves of the MLB offseason, and the one major move by the Marlins unless you consider signing Dallas McPherson or Luis Gonzalez major moves.
Once again I will go back to Baseball Prospectus’ Future Shock series to look at the prosepects now residing in the Marlins’ farm system. After this trade - getting rid of two stars they would not have been able to afford anyway - Maybin and De La Cruz wind up 1st and 10th, respectively in Florida’s system, with Trahern just missing the cut. Scouts call Maybin the next best hope we have of seeing a true five-tool player. His cumulative minor league line reads .316/.409/.523 with 14 HR and 25 SB in just 91 games.
The other gem of this trade, although no longer a prospect, is pitcher Andrew Miller. Miller, a 23-year-old with devastating stuff has drawn Randy Johnson comparisons as a tall, lanky, LHP with dominating pitches. Evidence of this can be seen in the famous game he pitched in July 2007 against the Red Sox. In winning that game, Miller pitched seven innings, gave up only three hits and struck out six as a 22-year-old rookie.
Both Maybin and Miller will be immediate fixtures in the Marlins’ lineup - for about $2m combined.

New York Mets

11-19-2007: Re-signed 2B Luis Castillo to a four-year contract.
To be honest, I just don’t know what to think about this contract. I mean, the only other 2B on the Mets’ roster is Ruben Gotay, so I guess they had to have somebody, I just slightly question four years for Castillo. Since 1999, Castillo has been an offensive player who always gets on base (.368 career OBP), scores runs (never less than 72 since 1999), steals bases (325 careers SB), and who has always worked on not striking out (21.6% K rate in 1998 to 8.2% in 2007). And on the defensive side, Castillo ranked in the top ten for all MLB 2B in John Dewan’s Fielding Bible plus/minus rankings from 2004-2006. So he is doing his two jobs correctly.
It’s just that he is 32 now, and the offensive numbers he is known for like OBP, BB%, and LD% have all been in slight decline the past three years.

11-20-2007: Acquired C Johnny Estrada from the Brewers in exchange for RHP Guillermo Mota.
And then didn’t offer him a contract, making him a free agent. He will pop up again soon.

11-30-2007: Acquired OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider from the Washington Nationals in exchange for OF Lastings Milledge.
In this deal, the Mets get two starters for their 2008 squad and the Nats get a former uber-prospect that didn’t turn out to be quite what the Mets hoped for. More on that later.
For the Mets, Church and Schneider will replace Shawn Green and Paul Lo Duca. Church and Schneider’s combined RC/27 last year was 9.3, while the combined number for Green and Lo Duca was 9.2. So we can call it a wash on offense. They will be hitting 7 and 8 anyway.

2-2-2008: Acquired LHP Johan Santana from the Twins in exchange for OF Carlos Gomez, RHP Deolis Guerra, RHP Philip Humber, and RHP Kevin Mulvey.
Everyone now understands two things about this trade from all the attention it has gotten the past 10 days: 1. that the Mets got some sort of a steal of a deal, especially in that they got to keep their number one rated prospect, and 2. Santana is the best pitcher alive. So there is no need for me to focus on either of those things.
Let’s try to put Santana in the NL context. The simple way to do it is to look at how Santana has fared against the NL in his career. Well, it isn’t pretty for the rest of the Senior Circuit. Santana has started 24 games against the NL and is 16-4 with a 2.27 ERA and 191 Ks in 182.2 innings. Wow.
In the next few days, I plan to do some more in depth research actually trying to place Santana in real life NL situations. For example, since Santana has now replaced Tom Glavine in the rotation, what would have happened if Santana had pitched Glavine’s starts in 2007? Stay tuned…

Philadelphia Phillies

11-7-2007: Acquired RHP Brad Lidge and INF Eric Bruntlett from the Astros in exchange for OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo, and RHP Geoff Geary.
For the past four seasons, these are Brad Lidge’s ranks for K/9 among all MLB pitchers with at least 50 IP for the season:
2004 - 1st
2005 - 1st
2006 - 2nd
2007 - 6th
There are two ways to look at those numbers. One is to say that he has obviously been declining in his strikeout numbers; Lidge’s most potent weapon, for the past few years, maybe as a result of fatigue, maybe recurring psychological factors from the Pujols homerun, etc. Or, you can say, even with his K/9 rate at its lowest in four years, it was still 11.82 K/9 for the season. I am sure the Phillies are basing the trade on the latter. The only thing that seems to have changed for Lidge the past two seasons since that homerun is his BB/9 numbers, which have been in the 4.03-4.32 range instead of the 2.85 and 2.93 it was in ‘04 and ‘05. This actually may be a factor of the homerun, not wanting to put balls in the middle of the plate in the tight 8th- and 9th-inning pressure situations. Prediction: he will do no worse than Brett Myers did as the Phillies closer in 2007.

11-10-2007: Signed LHP J.C. Romero to a three-year extension, with a club option for a fourth year.
I didn’t know we had reached the point where LOOGY’s are getting three and four year guaranteed contracts; especially worth $12m and potentially $16m overall.
We will have to wait to pass judgment until we see which version of Romero the Phillies are going to get. He is always dominant against left-handers, posting a .202/.298/.303 line against them in 2006 and a .208/.333/.312 line in 2007. But against right-handers he is more of a mystery. In 2007, he was an outstanding .198/.350/.328 against them, but in 2006 - .382/.455/.578 against right-handed batters.

1-31-2008: Signed 3B Pedro Feliz to a two-year contract with a club option for 2010.
Possibly three seasons for a third baseman with a career .288 OBP. In perspective, Adam Everett has a career OBP of .299.

Washington Nationals

11-30-2007: Acquired OF Lastings Milledge from Mets in exchange for OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider.
Maybe only 19 minor league games was a little too fast for young Lastings. His minor league numbers of .342/.395/.575 screamed to get him to the show, but his demeanor and attitude once he was there shouted back that he might need some more seasoning and maturity. Well he is the Nats’ problem now, and he immediately becomes the team’s projected CF on opening day. Numbers like .272/.341/.446 in your first 59 MLB games is not horrible by any means - but a talent like him being traded so quickly is surely a red flag.

12-11-2007: Signed C Paul Lo Duca to a one year contract.
So the Mets and Nats wind up switching starting catchers, just not through a trade. I wonder how many times that has happened throughout history? This would be a steal if we were about to start spring training in 2001. Now, Lo Duca is just old.

1-31-2008: Signed C Johnny Estrada to a one-year contract.
“….wait, didn’t we just sign another catcher the Mets let go? Well, can we train one of them to play shortstop? They both hit better than Christian Guzman…”

One more post to go with this series. The goal is to have it up by the time pitchers and catchers start their workouts.

Being about three weeks from the start of Spring Training, most of the deals and signings have been completed, with the exception of the Santanas and the Bonds out there who are still looking and wondering where they will be in two months.

We have already gone through the AL side of things, looking at each teams major (and a few minor) deals and signings. Today starts the Senior Circuit, beginning with the largest division in baseball, the NL Central.

Chicago Cubs

11-26-2007: Re-signed free agent RHP Kerry Wood to a one-year contract
With some combination of Zambrano, Hill, Lieber, Lilly, Marquis, and Marshall rounding out the rotation, Wood is obviously being brought back for the bullpen. Wood has played in only 47 games the past three years due to injury, starting 14 of them. In 2003, Wood finally rounded into form the way many expected he would after his 1998 Rookie of the Year campaign including the game where he threw a one-hitter and struck out 20 Astros. IN ‘03 he became an All Star, going 14-11 with a 3.33 ERA and 135 ERA+. Then the injuries started, and from 2004 to 2006, the numbers became merely mediocre for such a talent. Finally returning from injury last year to come out of the bullpen in 22 games, Wood had an ERA+ of 140 (his highest ever), and began to get consideration for the closer role. With Dempster likely out of that role this season, it may be between Howry and Wood come Spring Training.

12-12-2007: Did not tender a 2008 contract to RHP Mark Prior, making him a free agent.
And here is the other Cubs phenom to succumb to injury woes after such a promising start to his career. Prior was the #2 overall pick out of USC in 2001, and after a very strong rookie year in 2002, the Cubs thought they had hit the jackpot in 2003 after an outstanding 18-6 season with a 2.43 ERA (two runs lower than the lgERA), a 1.103 WHIP, 178 ERA+ (2nd highest in the NL), 245 Ks, and a PRAR of 104. Then, after a mental breakdown in the 2003 NLCS, the injuries started up, and Prior has pitched inn just 57 games in the past four seasons, and none last year.
On December 26, Prior signed a one-year contract with the Padres worth $1m, but includes $4.5m in incentives.

12-19-2007: Signed OF Kosuke Fukudome to a four-year contract.
This four year deal was in the neighborhood of $48 million dollars which immediately makes Fukudome the fourth highest paid position player on the team.
From ESPN: Fukudome “has 192 homers with a .305 batting average and .397 on-base percentage over nine seasons with the Chunichi Dragons,” but he also had elbow surgery in August, something the Cubs must not be worried about too much if they signed the 30-year-old for four years. Fukudome apparently also told the Cubs he is most comfortable batting third, but with Soriano, Lee and Ramirez in that lineup, I just don’t see that happening.

1-16-2008: Signed RHP Jon Lieber to a one-year contract.
If Dempster and Marshall are both going to be in the rotation, this move makes a little less sense than it already does. Lieber, while he did win 20 games in 2001, will be 38 the first week of the season and he has had an ERA+ that is only perfectly average the past four years. The past two years, his ERA has been above the adjusted lgERA with an average WHIP around 1.375.
The Cubs hope these numbers suffice for a #4 or 5 pitcher moving from one of the premier hitter’s parks in the league (Citizen’s Bank Park).

Cincinnati Reds

10-31-2007: Exercised the 2008 contract options on 1B Scott Hatteberg, OF Adam Dunn and C Javier Valentin.
I want to discuss Dunn here, who will receive $13 million from the Reds after they exercised his 2008 option, the last year on his contract. Dunn is an amazing power hitter. He now has at least 40 HR in four straight seasons. Off the top of my head I can’t think of anyone else who can claim that feat. Despite the number of strikeouts, his OBP has always been amazing because of the number of walks he takes (over 100 for four straight years). But if I were the Reds - and I’m not, they are way smarter than me - I just would not pay Dunn $13 million to play in left field.
In 2007, Dunn’s Batting Runs Above Average was 32 - so 32 runs better than your average LF. In the same season, his Fielding Runs Above Average was -18 or 18 runs worse than your average LF. If you go by the common perception of 10 runs earned or lost for a player equals a win or loss, the Reds are losing two extra games per year by leaving Dunn in left.
People say “move him to first to make up for it!” Hold on there. For his career, Dunn’s Fielding Rate (where 100 is average, and it is measured over 100 game periods) is 91 in 830 games in left. In 108 games at first, his Fielding Rate is 92. Both numbers come in well below average.
Dunn belongs in the AL, plain and simple.

11-28-2007: Signed free agent RHP Francisco Cordero to a four-year contract with a club option for 2012.
This contract is for four years, $48m, with a club option for year five (not to mention a full no-trade clause for the first two years). Do you think if he had opened 2007 with 30 or 35 straight saves instead of only 22 they would have given him 50 or 60 million?
These contracts for relievers who only pitch 60-80 innings a year are getting a little ridiculous, right? If you do want to look at just saves, we can - after the 22 straight, he was only 22 for 29 the rest of the year. But looking at some deeper numbers, I can try and show you why $48m is just not worth it. And we don’t have to go any farther than the Reds to do it. Let’s compare Jared Burton (of the Reds’ bullpen) and Cordero from last year:

Cordero: ERA 2.98, ERA+ 150, HR/9 0.57, AVG. .225, WHIP 1.11, BABIP .341, LOB% 73.4
Burton: ERA 2.51, ERA+ 185, HR/9 0.42, AVG. .188, WHIP 1.16, BABIP .234, LOB% 75.2

Cordero will make $8.5m next year, while Burton will make about $400K. Now I am not saying that Burton should be handed the job based on one season of great work, I mean Cordero has 177 career saves under his belt, but I think smarter decisions need to be made when deciding where to spend almost $50m.

Houston Astros

11-7-2007: Acquired OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo and RHP Geoff Geary from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Brad Lidge and SS Eric Bruntlett.
Costanzo, a great 3B prospect, went away in another trade, so this inevitably left the Astros with Bourn and Geary for Lidge (Bruntlett was just a role player throw-in). Obviously the Astros decided to give up on Lidge, who they felt (wrong or right) that he never recovered from the 2005 NLCS Pujols homerun in game 5. We will discuss Lidge when we get to the NL East, but now we must look at Bourn, the Astros’ probably opening day CF. Bourn is the fastest guy the Astros have seen in a long time, but as he will be hitting leadoff, he must be judged as a true leadoff hitter - and not just against the Astros’ former failures at that spot the past three years (Biggio and Taveras). His OBP of .348 in 119 games as a rookie last year falls right in line with his numbers in the minors, as does his SLG of .378. His BB/9 rate of 9.8% is a little low, and the Astros desperately need him to learn patience at the plate. The Bill James, Marcels, and PECOTA weighted means projections all have Bourn listed at less than 300 PA for the year, so that doesn’t bode well for the projectionists thinking he will keep his job. The other options are Reggie Abercrombie and Darin Erstad, so it definitely doesn’t get any better.

11-16-2007: Acquired RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Braves in exchange for OF Josh Anderson.
Out of all the Astros’ moves in the offseason, this one might be the best for Houston in terms of what they gave up and got back. Anderson was a great hitter in his limited role in 2007, and Lord knows the Astros could use some backup OF help, but with Lidge, Qualls and Wheeler all gone, the bullpen is in a desperate situation. Villareal has a career 3.71 ERA and 121 ERA+. He has pitched over 75 innings three times, and over 90 twice. He looks like the new 8th-inning man in Houston

12-2-2007: Signed free agent 2B Kazuo Matsui to a three-year contract.
This deal is worth $16.5m for a 32-year-old second baeman. I guess that’s better than a 41-year-old second baseman like 2007. Matusi is the latest marginal player to parlay a good season or two in Colorado to a large contract somewhere else. One day, someone is going to catch on that these park-inflated numbers have a very hard time carrying over to other, less hitter-friendly parks. You name an offensive stat, and Matsui had his career high in it last year: AVG, OBP, R, SB, BABIP, RC, or whatever. And when you reach your career highs at age 31 while only playing in 104 games, you know something must be up.
Matsui is, however, a very competent 2B, with career numbers all on the plus side for any defensive metric you can find. This deal might work out in the Astros favor as long as they keep Matsui out of the two hole like is being discussed by Cooper and Wade, and drop him down to about 7th behind all the bigger bats.

12-12-2007: Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, LHP Troy Patton, RHP Dennis Sarfate and 3B Mike Costanzo; Did not offer a 2008 contract to SS Adam Everett, making him a free agent.
Let’s pretend for a minute that there is no chance of the Astros having to play 25, 50, or even 162 games this year without Tejada, and examine the trade as the Astros intended it when it actually happened. Anyone who thinks the Astros are getting the same SS who was the MVP in 2002 or the 150-RBI man from 2004 needs to rethink things, and not just because of steroid allegations. Still, Tejada’s 162 game averages for his career look like .287/.344/.477 with 181 hits, 27 HR, and 108 RBI. That is a stout offense for any NL shortstop, even if they do play in the NL east. Comparing Tejada to the previous SS regime, it’s not even close. From 1999 to 2006 in Tejada’s amazing games played streak, the lowest number of Runs Created for one season was 94. Everett, on the other hand, has never had more than 60 RC in a year.
Comparing the defense of the two, where you could argue Everett makes up ground; the numbers for RZR were .871 for Everett and .830 for Tejada in 2007. For FRAA, Everett is at 26, while Tejada comes in at -12 for the past three years. There is your big difference, but Tejada’s bat doubles the difference when comparing offensive runs.

12-14-2007: Acquired RHP Jose Valverde from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for INF Chris Burke, RHP Juan Gutierrez and RHP Chad Qualls
Losing Brad Lidge and getting Valverde, the NL leader in saves for ‘07, no problem right? Well maybe, maybe not. You see, if you look up VORP for relievers and total WPA (where relievers’ numbers are telling because the best make their livings in late inning pressure situations), you won’t find Valverde’s name in the top 20 of either of those lists for MLB last year.
Yes, Valverde has some good peripheral stats in his career, namely 11.46 K/9 and a .209 BAA, but the numbers like 3.84 BB/9 and .81 GB/FB ratio do scare me somewhat.

Milwaukee Brewers

10-30-2007: Declined the club option on OF Geoff Jenkins.
Thus ending the reign of the current longest-tenured player on the Brewers’ roster. The OF is crowded now with Cameron and Braun moving there, so someone had to go.

11-20-2007: Acquired RHP Guillermo Mota from the New York Mets in exchange for C Johnny Estrada.
Mota has not pitched less than 55 innings since 2001, so he is certainly a dependable reliever to eat up some innings. But the numbers tell the tale of his performance. His ERA has increased every year since his career year of 2003 with the Dodgers. Could it be that his 76 games and 105 innings pitched that year taxed his arm too much? Perhaps. His ERA+ has been decreasing as well - from 204 in 2003 to 74 last year. But all the Brewers had to do was give up their starting catcher to get Mota. And who did they get to fill that spot….

11-28-2007: Signed free agent C Jason Kendall to a one-year contract with a vesting option for 2009.
There was actually a time when Kendall was considered a really good player. Despite the fact that he never has hit for power (although he reached double digit HR three times), Kendall used to be an on-base machine, reaching .370 seven times in his first nine seasons, and passing .410 three times. Last year, that number was a career low .301 with the A’s and Cubs, and he only had 44 Runs Created, more than 20 lower than his career low to that point. But he still winds up with a job year after year even though he no longer hits for average, gets on base, hits for power, steals bases, or scores runs. Milwaukee is just the latest suitor in a desperate catcher situation.

12-10-2007: Signed RHP Eric Gagne to a one-year contract.
The Brewers sure do have a lot of turnover in the closer department, don’t they? Kolb, Turnbow, Cordero, and now Gagne. Gagne had probably the most dominant three year run of any closer in history, saving 52, 55, and 45 games - but what is less known is that he threw exactly 82.3 innings in all of those years as well, likely killing his arm. Gagne missed all but 16 games over 2005 and 2006 with various injuries and surgery. In 2007, his first year back, Gagne was again dominant in his half-season with Texas, but downright awful in the other half with Boston. Let’s see how Gagne responds coming back to the NL, more specifically the perpetually weak NL Central.

1-14-2008: Signed OF Mike Cameron to a one-year contract with a club option for 2009.
The new center fielder. Well, he will be the new center fielder beginning with game number 26

Pittsburgh Pirates

2-5-2008: Signed INF Freddy Sanchez to a two-year contract, with a club option for the 2010 season.
This is by far the most significant move of the offseason for the Pirates, if that tells you anything about the state of that ballclub.

St. Louis Cardinals

12-15-2007: Traded OF Jim Edmonds to the Padres for Minor League 3B David Freese.
It seems like father time finally caught up with Edmonds, and the Padres, needing a CF, took a chance on the soon-to-be 38-year-old. More on his numbers when we discuss the Padres, but I just wanted to point out that no matter how old he is, I am not sad to see Edmonds leave St. Louis. He was always an Astros killer. From the walkoff extra inning homerun in game six of the 2004 NLCS to his game-saving catch in center the next night to the walk he drew in game five of the 2005 NLCS to bring Pujols to the plate in that fabled at bat vs. Brad Lidge; I always hated him, but I always admired him. I don’t really buy into clutch at all, but if there was ever one guy who I would say was clutch against Houston, it was this guy. One of the two or three best highlight center fielders of my generation.

1-14-2008: Acquired 3B Troy Glaus from the Blue Jays for 3B Scott Rolen.
We talked about this a little bit when we dissected the Blue Jays, but essentially it was a trade of a potential problem for a potential problem. Rolen and his inability to get along with LaRussa and Cardinal management for Glaus and his chronic injury woes. Only somewhat surprisingly, Glaus has hit over .262 once in his entire career - but his OBP/SLG are still a great .358/.500 for his career. Glaus’ 162-game averages of 36 HR and 101 RBI would rank him as a top-5 offensive third baseman in the NL, if he can stay healthy. Since 1999, Glaus has never had an OPS+ below 113 while only playing one of those years in a park that favored hitters over pitchers - his one season in Arizona in 2005.

1-21-2008: Signed C Yadier Molina to a four-year extension with a club option for a fifth season.
Let’s hope his next four years (ages 25-28, mind you) are better than his first four, where his line reads .248/.304/.349. Those numbers are pulled down somewhat by his horrible 2006 season where he was one of the worst offensive players in baseball, but he has to have a season where he earns more than an 85 OPS+, something he hasn’t done up to this point. Molina’s evident value at this point in his career is certainly his defense - he threw out 50% of basestealers in 2007, and the Cardinals are banking on that to continue. And who knows, maybe they just got Molina in case they make the playoffs. In 29 career playoff games, Molina’s line is .316/.356/.453.

And that’s all for the NL Central, my friends. The NL East will be up in a few days. Geez, this is more than 3,000 words. I need to get a life.